The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled people make poor decisions and reach erroneous conclusions, but their incompetence denies them the metacognitive ability to appreciate their mistakes.[1] The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their ability as above average, much higher than it actually is, while the highly skilled underrate their own abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority. Actual competence may weaken self-confidence, as competent individuals may falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. As Kruger and Dunning conclude, "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others"

Kruger and Dunning proposed that, for a given skill, incompetent people will:

1. tend to overestimate their own level of skill;
2. fail to recognize genuine skill in others;
3. fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy;
4. recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill, if they can be trained to substantially improve.

It kicks in by the 3rd or 4th drink I'd wager.

Yup, that explains why folks in managment behave the way they do.

Funny, I was thinking about posting something about this on the way to work... how people think they are better at something then they actually are... like their ability to SING....

quote Originally posted by 1988holleyformula: Yup, that explains why folks in managment behave the way they do.

Yeah, some people get a bump in title, and they think they got it because they already are an expert at everything related to that position.... and don't develop/augment their skillset. "Each rises to the level of their inadequacy" (from Dilbert)

[This message has been edited by FieroRumor (edited 06-13-2011).]

quote Originally posted by 1988holleyformula: Yup, that explains why folks in managment behave the way they do.

Or our presidents, past and present think they know how to help this country.

Steve

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Technology is great when it works,
and one big pain in the ass when it doesn't.

Detroit iron rules all the rest are just toys.

quote Originally posted by FieroRumor: Funny, I was thinking about posting something about this on the way to work... how people think they are better at something then they actually are... like their ability to SING.... Yeah, some people get a bump in title, and they think they got it because they already are an expert at everything related to that position.... and don't develop/augment their skillset. "Each rises to the level of their inadequacy" (from Dilbert)

Dang rumor, I'm starting to get even more worried. I was actually searching the net for that exact Dilbert strip! I was going to post that in this thread. This just compounds the worry that I felt when you pictured the sun wearing flair as well.

yes - this applies to endless segments of society.....
as mentioned above, much management has this.
many of the "citizens" of Detroit are also afflicted with this. those who think "street smarts" is actual "smarts". tho, I would assume this applies to more than just the "citizens" of Detroit

the smarter you are - the more you know how much you dont know.

but - the engine behind this is quite simple: they are dummies - how would the know they are dumb?

What about the Freddy-Kruger effect: where you believe that everyone is stupider than you, and deserves to die?

quote Originally posted by 84fiero123: Or our presidents, past and present think they know how to help this country. Steve

Funny, I immediately thought about the tea partiers, most of whom can't see past their own noses.....

quote Originally posted by NEPTUNE: Funny, I immediately thought about the tea partiers, most of whom can't see past their own noses.....

well, I dont find short-sighted & simplistic as "dumb" - just short-sighted & simplistic
I know plenty truly skilled Tea Birthers

gonna try and keep this from going down that road.....as futilie as that maybe

quote Originally posted by 1988holleyformula: Yup, that explains why folks in managment behave the way they do.

Actually, this is more real then you may think. It's called "The Peter Principle". People generally achieve the highest level of incompetence. A guy starts out in the mail room, and does well. He gets promoted to mail room manager. Again, he does really well. He keeps doing well in each subsequent job and continues to advance. At some point say he reaches operations supervisor where he only performs marginally. As a result of his mediocre performance, he stagnates in that position, where he continues to do a job he's only fair at. In a perfect world, he would be demoted to the position he previously held from so he could do a job he's good at, and probably enjoys more than the one he's no good at.

quote Originally posted by Taijiguy: Actually, this is more real then you may think. It's called "The Peter Principle". People generally achieve the highest level of incompetence. A guy starts out in the mail room, and does well. He gets promoted to mail room manager. Again, he does really well. He keeps doing well in each subsequent job and continues to advance. At some point say he reaches operations supervisor where he only performs marginally. As a result of his mediocre performance, he stagnates in that position, where he continues to do a job he's only fair at. In a perfect world, he would be demoted to the position he previously held from so he could do a job he's good at, and probably enjoys more than the one he's no good at.

This presupposes that it's impossible to learn a job by doing a job, a concept which seems very strange to me as the whole reason we as a species have gotten where we're at (for better or worse) is our ability to learn and adapt.

The real issue with being dumb is that everyone things the monikor is attached to someone else. Same with bad drivers. It's always the other guy. Statistically speaking, if we took everyone who regularly posted in T/OT, there are many of us who ain't bright.

"My sister thinks her son is going to be the next Einstein because he points at the sky and says 'Airpain! Airpain!' Well good lord the boy's fourteen years old!" - Jeff Foxworthy

You never know. Maybe I'm not too bright, because I KNOW I'm a good driver.

Eh? I am smarter than EVERYONE on this forum. In fact, I am much more intelligent than even Steven Hawkins. Let me see him even have the capacity to make a sandwich. (Very bad taste Kania! )

Tony

quote Originally posted by JazzMan: This presupposes that it's impossible to learn a job by doing a job, a concept which seems very strange to me as the whole reason we as a species have gotten where we're at (for better or worse) is our ability to learn and adapt.

Not necessarily. I mean, first off, the fact that it exists is testament in and of itself. (The exact limitations of a person may or may not be the ability to learn on the job, but rather *what* they need to learn) But second, some people don't have aptitude for certain things. Maybe prior positions didn't require supervising personnel, or required supervising personnel of a certain type, say, blue collar vs. white collar. Or maybe prior positions didn't require budgeting and it's a person who just doesn't really get math or projections.

And there are jobs that some people just aren't suited for. Fighter pilot, for example. I'd love to be one. But with poor eyesight and a slight tendancy toward motion sickness, I'd be a bad choice. I might learn it after a while, but I doubt I'd last long in combat. If I survived training.

Personality-wise, a good friend who's a teacher once told me: "If you're thinking of a career change, don't go into teaching. You don't have what it takes." He wasn't referring to my intelligence, or empathy, caring, or ability to communicate. He was referring to my ability to control a room full of unruly children. And he's right, I can't do that. It's not in my personality to be that kind of person. Sure, I'll get better, but I'll never be GOOD.

(The kind of person that makes a good cop makes a lousy waiter. Ever heard that one before?)

Circling back on topic, that's why I try stick to what I'm good at. Everybody has a time to call in an expert. Some just don't know it. I recognize what I'm good at not by what I think I'm good at. It's what OTHER people tell me I'm good at.

quote Originally posted by Pyrthian: yes - this applies to endless segments of society..... as mentioned above, much management has this. many of the "citizens" of Detroit are also afflicted with this. those who think "street smarts" is actual "smarts". tho, I would assume this applies to more than just the "citizens" of Detroit the smarter you are - the more you know how much you dont know. but - the engine behind this is quite simple: they are dummies - how would the know they are dumb?

That is what I think. I have a general thirst for knowledge, but man do I feel like I'm only grasping a small glimpse of what is out there to know. Sometimes I think that little kids riding in cover wagons back in the day of the Oregon Trail probably had more knowledge about the world than I do with my access to Wikipedia and Amazon.com book store.

A lot of reality TV shows would not exist if it was not for this effect. American Idol and America has Talent would not last very long.

.

quote Originally posted by Wichita: That is what I think. I have a general thirst for knowledge, but man do I feel like I'm only grasping a small glimpse of what is out there to know. Sometimes I think that little kids riding in cover wagons back in the day of the Oregon Trail probably had more knowledge about the world than I do with my access to Wikipedia and Amazon.com book store.

Thats a good thing.
Curiosity is a large part of what made man the dominant species on this planet.
Self doubt has kept the killing down to a level we seem to be OK with.
The older you get, the more I'm beginning to like you, Wichita......

[This message has been edited by NEPTUNE (edited 06-13-2011).]

quote Originally posted by Tony Kania: Eh? I am smarter than EVERYONE on this forum. In fact, I am much more intelligent than even Steven Hawking. Let me see him even have the capacity to make a sandwich. (Very bad taste Kania! ) Tony

Fixed that for ya

quote Originally posted by Gandalf: Fixed that for ya

I suspect that Tony was being clever by purposefully misspelling a smart guy's name in a thread about being dumb. That or it was a well-timed mistake.

quote Originally posted by Pyrthian: well, I dont find short-sighted & simplistic as "dumb" - just short-sighted & simplistic I know plenty truly skilled Tea Birthers gonna try and keep this from going down that road.....as futilie as that maybe

Thats a very good point.

quote Originally posted by Flamberge: I suspect that Tony was being clever by purposefully misspelling a smart guy's name in a thread about being dumb. That or it was a well-timed mistake.

Well he MUST be smart then, assuming that everyone would get the humour! (you got it, I didn't)

Tony, I bow down to your superior intellect ;-)