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| 2022 CONGRESSIONAL MIDTERM ELECTIONS (Page 2/10) |
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randye
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JAN 06, 06:42 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
The Democrats have a numbers advantage... and that is, this isn't a year where ... at least in the Senate, there are many Democrat seats up for reelection. If the shoe was on the other foot, and a Republican were president, the inherent disadvantage against Republicans would be significant. It's something like 20+ Republican seats versus 13 Democrat seats that are up for election this cycle. This is a saving grace for Democrats, because all that aside, the momentum is NOT in favor of the Democrats.
We can look at a few aspects of this:
1 - COVID: The entire country has significant COVID fatigue. Even my most radically liberal friends in Coconut Grove that have kids who are transgender, they're not wearing masks anymore. They all start off with it when they come visit to see how each other feel about it, and then they all just agree to take it off and no one talks about it any further. No one, and I mean no one really cares about masks at this point, and when they do, it's only to keep up a facade'. The imposition (lockdowns, overreaction, etc.) that continues to happen in the left-leaning states, will have a dramatic impact on the upcoming election. At the absolute minimum, it will depress the left-leaning voters from actually getting out to vote.
2 - ECONOMY: The economy continues to slowly recoil. I'm not sure why, to be honest. I keep seeing the stock market go down, and as a result of the pandemic, everyone is suffering from a form of malaise that psychologists are calling "Languishing," which they blame for the "mass resignation." While that wouldn't seem like a bad thing (I'm certainly guilty of it, literally quit my job of over a decade on November 6th), many are not getting new jobs. It's NOT because they are independently wealthy, they're going into debt. 3rd and 4th quarter debt has sky-rocketed. And then there's the issue of inflation, supply-chain problems, and rising gas prices. These are all things that have *DIRECTLY* impacted the lower income and middle class families. The people who are making the decisions seem to have myopia... they are the SF / Chicago / NYC / Washington D.C. crowd who make at least $100k salaries, walk / ride-share to work, and eat out anyway. Their views are so dramatically skewed from how the rest of their voting constituency lives (middle and lower income). The poor are significantly worse-off under Biden right now, than they were under Trump... and at the very least, this will depress voter turn-out, possibly even convert a few. It's already had a 70% swing for independents.
3 - MALAISE: Suicides and drug abuse is way up... regardless of the how and why, the fact is that it's happening. People are not getting a good feeling for what's going on in the country. You know I love you Ray B, but they say a Democrat is never really happy. Even when they have their way, they're just less angry. Right now, the majority of the country thinks were on the wrong track, whether that's because we're not liberal enough, or Biden didn't pan out how they'd hoped... there is a significant malaise on the Democrat side. You see it all day long at Democratic Underground, and even my most die-hard Democrat friends are basically over it all.
4 - CRIME: Crime and homelessness is up dramatically in the cities, particularly in left-leaning cities. Drive through places like Austin, San Francisco, etc... and every highway underpass has a tent encampment under it. This is not something you see in Miami or cities that are largely conservative. All of this is directly impacting yet again... a majority of the Democrat constituency... which will depress voter turn out for Democrats, and possibly shift a few votes.
5 - ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION: Once again, we are providing services, money, and medical care to illegals, in addition to basically not prosecuting them. Yet at the same time, our own homeless and poor do not get any of these benefits. There's so much I can say about this... but I think we know the intent. Get as many people in as possible, make them citizens, promise them gifts, help elect Democrats forever.
I suspect the House gets taken by Republicans by 35-40 seats. I also suspect the Republicans take the Senate by 2 seats.
I think Biden does not run for reelection in 2024 |
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You were probably too young to remember it but, except for Covid, you almost perfectly described the ONE TERM, feckless, Jimmy Carter administration.
You could have also added Brandon's shameful, catastrophic, Afghanistan surrender which parallels Carter's shameful "Iran Hostage Crisis".
Of course we know what president replaced Carter in a historic landslide. 
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It is also worth reminding you that 2 seats that Demorats picked up in 2021 during a special election (Arizona-Kelly and Georgia-Warnock) are both up for grabs this year and considering the ballot fiascos and voting laws "re-tightening" in both states I think we can likely expect "R's" to regain both of those seats handily.[This message has been edited by randye (edited 01-06-2022).]
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82-T/A [At Work]
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JAN 07, 08:18 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by randye:
You were probably too young to remember it but, except for Covid, you almost perfectly described the ONE TERM, feckless, Jimmy Carter administration.
You could have also added Brandon's shameful, catastrophic, Afghanistan surrender which parallels Carter's shameful "Iran Hostage Crisis".
Of course we know what president replaced Carter in a historic landslide.
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It is also worth reminding you that 2 seats that Demorats picked up in 2021 during a special election (Arizona-Kelly and Georgia-Warnock) are both up for grabs this year and considering the ballot fiascos and voting laws "re-tightening" in both states I think we can likely expect "R's" to regain both of those seats handily.
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The Afghanistan thing is a whole other topic I didn't even want to get into... but needless to say, it will always be a very upsetting thing for me. 9/11 was something that changed me, and I had a different perspective in life after that. My deployment to Afghanistan in 2019 was for me, something where I felt I could give back and help close that chapter in America in whatever way I could try with my ability. The way Biden ended it, I will never forgive him... it resulted in turning 20 years of struggle into 20 years of failure. Because of the single action of one man's feckless behavior, we have absolutely nothing to show for 20 years except the death of 10s of thousands between the US, coalition allies, and citizens, including massive debt, and stolen technology.
But yeah, I was too young to remember. He was president when I was born, but the first president I remember was Ronald Reagan. The difference with Carter... he had four decades after he left to make a difference... using his name recognition and power of having been in office. Biden does not have this. Biden will have entered office, basically as a corrupt do-nothing politician his whole life, corrupt to the core, and will leave office ready for an assisted living facility. What will be his legacy aside from his failures as president? I wish that on no man... but he brought it on himself.
I completely forgot that those were special elections! We'll have to see... has Georgia officially implemented and passed that law? I thought it had been challenged in court and some of it was shot down?
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sourmash
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JAN 07, 09:31 AM
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82, you have to accept that we all got duped by the crisis that 9-11-01 created. You got duped in a greater degree.
Afghanistan was always going to be a failure. That was known going in. That was your role. The legacy is heroine, poppy fields, hundreds of thousands of dead addicts and currently addicted Americans that the West fostered. The Taliban had almost eliminated the production anywhere they held power. The USA allowed cultivation and it flourished as they promoted rival factions that relied on heroine production. We were not the good guys there or in Iraq.
The 'refugees' pouring into Europe escaping the turmoil was a desired effect to replace the native population and culture. That was your job as a serviceman; to help drive that effect.
Now fentanyl has largely supplemented or replaced heroine here at home, and our government allows that to cross the Sourhern border with the invading illegals. They encourage that.
If servicemen were supposed to fight for freedom, then the border would've been guarded while you were invading another nation and spreading liberalism. But open borders were a Republican initiative.
Biden didn't chit on your service legacy. You did the job they wanted. But illegals do the job now, muling drugs from Mexico. A service man's job was also to spend us trillions into debt to bankers while those illegals poured across the border at home. Biden doesn't make those calls you're holding against him.
You have to realize your role, and accept your decision helped gov do this to all of us. Now Republicans are introducing efforts or crying to bring more Afghan refugees here. Liberals everywhere want this. But they, like you, don't realize who gave them this wound that they cry over. It was the American serviceman. The sting you're feeling isn't from Biden.
I was duped for a year, maybe. It was all the illegals showing up and driving through my city that woke me up.
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Fats
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JAN 07, 11:20 AM
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Per the midterms.
My prediction is that the Dems will once again win by a landslide. The people on the Right won't show up en masse to vote. We already know that the system is rigged. We've already lost because there was no real stand up when the Left cheated their way into the last election. If every single Republican voter showed up to vote, the Left would just "find" a few thousand more votes at 4am.
It doesn't matter what happens. The media won't report on it if it would effect the Left negatively, and will talk about it nonstop if it'll hurt the Right.
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sourmash
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JAN 07, 11:23 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by Fats:
Per the midterms.
My prediction is that the Dems will once again win by a landslide. The people on the Right won't show up en masse to vote. We already know that the system is rigged. We've already lost because there was no real stand up when the Left cheated their way into the last election. If every single Republican voter showed up to vote, the Left would just "find" a few thousand more votes at 4am.
It doesn't matter what happens. The media won't report on it if it would effect the Left negatively, and will talk about it nonstop if it'll hurt the Right. |
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There are too many retiring Dems to allow me to think that will happen again.
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randye
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JAN 07, 10:30 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by sourmash:
There are too many retiring Dems to allow me to think that will happen again.
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The two biggest mistakes that Leftists always make are:
A. Their delusional belief that their numbers among the US population are much larger than they actually are. (they aren't)
B. Their delusional belief that their Marxist / socialist agenda is widely embraced. (it isn't)
My personal prediction:
Congressional Demorats, (most especially House Demorats), are going to use the months remaining between now and next November as their "do or die" moment and are going to push HARD on their socialist agenda, including "SCOTUS packing", statehood for D.C., federal control over elections, and a few other items they see as key to consolidating power for years to come.
Like "BBB" and other Brandon agenda items they will be obviously forestalled because they simply don't have Senate votes to get them through. Sinema and Manchin to name just two, but other "Ds" up for reelection in "unsafe" districts are not going to be seriously rocking the boat back home.
Foolish moves like D.C. statehood and federal election control would run up against an immediate wall of Constitutional challenges and resultant failure anyway.
That won't stop them trying, but it will more than help cement voter opposition against them, especially with independent voters who make up that all important "center".
THE ONLY THING that Demorats have to run on in 2022 is their bitter "January 6 platform" which they just "unveiled" yesterday and due to their "Russia Collusion" and impeachment bullshittery from years prior, they're now firmly seen as "The party that cried wolf" so it's a poor excuse for a platform to run on but "They neither know nor have anything better."
Hate, resentment and revenge isn't a political platform that rational Americans are going to vote for, especially when they can't afford gas, groceries, electricity, clothes or a home.
Brandon babbled about "kitchen table issues" during his 2020 campaign but all that many Americans have now is a bare table, empty wallets, constant supply shortages and endless Covid fear mongering.
If I were running a midterm Congressional campaign, the slogan would simply be a slight modification of Reagan's famous slogan;
"Are you better off now than you were a year ago?"
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THERMIDOR 2022[This message has been edited by randye (edited 01-07-2022).]
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theBDub
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JAN 08, 09:55 AM
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Republicans will walk away winners by a large degree. Democrat voters are upset at the inaction, progressives are actively against Democrats. Republicans are still (unfortunately) mostly united under Trump.
I expect some Trumpian candidates to win in primaries against incumbents, but not all.
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cliffw
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JAN 08, 09:58 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by ray b:
the only way the Gop can ''win'' is voter suppression
and they are doing exactly that where ever they can
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Define "voter suppression". Really, what the ruck does that mean ?
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cliffw
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JAN 08, 10:16 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by theBDub:
Republicans are still (unfortunately) mostly united under Trump.
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Which other Republican would you prefer them to be united under ?
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sourmash
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JAN 08, 10:21 AM
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Trump is popular because he's seen as anti to the typical D.C. phony party system.
He isn't the real thing though. He sucks but voters are stupid and easily manipulated to not vote in their best interests. He just stands tall compared to establishment candidates.
The Dems have been very active and effective at the goals they've sold out to. That's why they'll lose heavily down the ticket.
Dems have been very active and effective at their goals of dismantling our society. It's their platform. The GOP platform is, I wish it was different, but ok, I'll go along with destroying our society if it's done slower than the Dems are doing it. I just don't want people to be able to see it so clearly. [This message has been edited by sourmash (edited 01-08-2022).]
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