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| The question now is whether America can claw her way out of the abyss.......... (Page 1/8) |
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Vintage-Nut
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JUL 27, 08:03 PM
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Wichita
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JUL 27, 08:26 PM
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rinselberg
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JUL 27, 09:46 PM
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| quote | The storm clouds that threatened the economy under President Biden are lifting with surprising speed, as fears of an imminent recession abate just as inflation cools.
On Thursday, the government reported that the economy grew last quarter by 2.4 percent on an annualized basis—a faster-than-expected clip that bolstered confidence the United States is not about to slide into recession.
The report follows a steep drop in inflation, from 9 percent last year to 3 percent in the most recent report, and a measurable brightening in consumer attitudes. Positive news is emerging across the data: Worker pay is rising faster than prices, consumer spending remains robust, and new federal investments in infrastructure and clean energy are bolstering the overall economy. The Biden administration resolved a standoff over the debt ceiling with House Republicans, and its emergency interventions helped calm a crisis among regional banks. A deal this week between UPS and its union removed one more potential challenge to the economy.
This string of positive developments could reshape a political landscape that for more than two years has been defined by Republican accusations that Biden is mismanaging the economy. Although quick to emphasize the progress is fragile, Democratic policymakers are newly eager to boast of the strength in what has been perhaps Biden’s greatest political liability.
“This progress wasn’t inevitable or accidental—it is Bidenomics in action,” Biden said in a statement touting the economic growth numbers. “My economic plan is working—and we’re just getting started.”
Released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the new gross domestic product figures showed the economy expanded for the fourth straight quarter in a row, casting doubt on predictions of a recession this year. . . . |
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The report continues online.
"The U.S. economy grew by annual rate of 2.4 percent in second quarter, as both recession and inflation fears abate"
Jeff Stein and Abha Bhattarai for the Washington Post; July 27, 2023.
https://www.washingtonpost....gdp-q2-2023-economy/[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 07-27-2023).]
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williegoat
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JUL 27, 10:00 PM
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The Party line on the economy always reminds me of the old story about the guy who keeps hitting himself in the head with a hammer.
When asked why, his reply was: "Because it feels so good when I stop!"
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fredtoast
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JUL 28, 02:03 AM
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Interesting story. Claims to be about an algorithm, yet never mentions any math or applies any algorithm of any kind to any data whatsoever.
Basically, just another right-wing propaganda piece that only a member of the echo chamber would blindly accept as true without any data at all to support its claims.
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82-T/A [At Work]
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JUL 28, 07:40 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by fredtoast:
Interesting story. Claims to be about an algorithm, yet never mentions any math or applies any algorithm of any kind to any data whatsoever.
Basically, just another right-wing propaganda piece that only a member of the echo chamber would blindly accept as true without any data at all to support its claims. |
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Sounds like something a radical leftist would say that wants to put his head in the sand and ignore inconvenient information.
The article referenced this essay, literally in the second sentence, which gives the math you're looking for: https://www.sovereignman.co...uddenly-part-146899/
Perhaps your browser doesn't show links. Is it HTML 1.0 and greater compatible? Let me know... I've been on the internet since 1994, I can probably help.
Anyway, he talks about logarithmic decay... what we non-math degree holders call a "waterfall effect." Perfect example of a waterfall effect is what's going on in San Francisco right now. You take something that had reached peak success... under Democrat leadership, there began a decline, slow... but steady. It increased more and more, to the point where significant things took place (refusal to convict against crime, which leads to businesses leaving, which leads to people losing their jobs, which leads to increased violent crime, which leads to debt) ... all of which essentially leads to a waterfall effect that becomes irreversible until it hits bottom. Think Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, all of which are on that path as a result of Democrat rule. NYC is a perfect example of a city that fails under Democrat leadership, and rebuilds itself under Republican leadership ... as it's done at least three times in its history. We are now, again, under decline in NYC... waiting for residents to eventually vote Republican again and restore it.
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fredtoast
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JUL 28, 08:34 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
Sounds like something a radical leftist would say that wants to put his head in the sand and ignore inconvenient information.
The article referenced this essay, literally in the second sentence, which gives the math you're looking for: https://www.sovereignman.co...uddenly-part-146899/
Perhaps your browser doesn't show links. Is it HTML 1.0 and greater compatible? Let me know... I've been on the internet since 1994, I can probably help.. |
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So when you followed that link you think you saw "math, data, and an algorithm".
Could you please post a quote because I do not see any of that. And I am pretty sure the problem is not with my computer. am pretty sure the real problem is that you do not know what "math, data, and algorithm" even look like.
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82-T/A [At Work]
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JUL 28, 08:39 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by fredtoast:
So when you followed that link you think you saw "math, data, and an algorithm".
Could you please post a quote because I do not see any of that. And I am pretty sure the problem is not with my computer. am pretty sure the real problem is that you do not know what "math, data, and algorithm" even look like. |
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COPY/PASTE from the article...
If it’s been a few years since you studied math (or ‘maths’ for my British friends), logarithms are the inverse of exponential functions.
Simple example: we know that 102 (or 10 squared) = 10 x 10 = 100. So, the number 10 raised to the power of 2 equals 100.
The inverse of that is to say that the ‘base 10’ logarithm of 100 = 2. Or in mathematical terms, 100 log10 = 2
Napier devised an entire system of logarithms. And this was actually a tremendous leap forward in mathematics, because logarithms made it so much easier for scientists and researchers to calculate solutions to complex problems.
One of the many important applications to come out of Napier’s work is the concept of ‘logarithmic decay,’ which models many real world phenomena.
The idea behind logarithmic decay is that something declines very, very slowly at first. But, over a long period of time, the rate of decline becomes faster… and faster… and faster.
If you look at it on a graph, logarithmic decay basically looks like a horizontal line that almost imperceptibly arcs gently downwards. But eventually the arc downward becomes steeper and steeper until it’s practically a vertical line down.
Logarithmic decay is like how Hemingway famously described going bankrupt in The Sun Also Rises– “Gradually, then suddenly.”
In fact logarithmic decay is great way to describe social and financial decline. Even the rise and fall of superpowers are often logarithmic in scale. The Kingdom of France in the 1700s infamously fell gradually… then suddenly.
We can see the same logarithmic decay in the West today, and specifically the United States.
The deterioration of government finances has been gradual, then sudden. Social conflict, censorship, and the decline in basic civility has been gradual, then sudden. Even the loss of confidence in the US dollar has been gradual… and is poised to be sudden.
Back in 2009 when I started Sovereign Man, I spoke a lot about ideas that were highly controversial at the time.
I suggested that Social Security’s trust funds would run out of money. That the US government would eventually be buried by its gargantuan national debt. That the US dollar would eventually lose its international reserve dominance. That inflation and social conflict would rise.
The main thesis, quite simply, was that the US was in decline. And whenever I spoke at events, I used to talk about logarithmic decay, saying:
“As a civilization in decline, you never really know quite where you are on the curve. You could be way over here on the horizontal line, at the very beginning of the decline… or you could be standing on the precipice about to hit the vertical slide down.”
Well, now we have a much better idea of where we are on that logarithmic decay curve. Because these ideas about the national debt, inflation, social security, social conflict, etc. are no longer theories. Nor are they even remotely controversial.
--- break ---
I'm sure you're going to ***** then that it doesn't cite very many specific examples, or that you want to see charts, etc... yes... it's metaphor. Was that not obvious?
I think Chicago, New York, San Francisco are all the examples of logarithmic decay that you need.
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fredtoast
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JUL 28, 08:41 AM
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| quote | | Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:Think Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, all of which are on that path as a result of Democrat rule. . |
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People did not flee the big cities because of democratic rule. They simply moved to the suburbs for more room. Everybody wanted a yard with a white picket fence. The people who could afford it moved away leaving mainly the poor in the cities.
And large Republican led cities in republican state Like Jacksonville Florida are having the same spikes in crime as all other cities, so the crime problem is not based on any Democrat policy. If Republican policy could stop the rise in crime then Jacksonville would not have a large increase in crime.
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82-T/A [At Work]
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JUL 28, 09:26 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by fredtoast:
People did not flee the big cities because of democratic rule. They simply moved to the suburbs for more room. Everybody wanted a yard with a white picket fence. The people who could afford it moved away leaving mainly the poor in the cities.
And large Republican led cities in republican state Like Jacksonville Florida are having the same spikes in crime as all other cities, so the crime problem is not based on any Democrat policy. If Republican policy could stop the rise in crime then Jacksonville would not have a large increase in crime.
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LOL, Jacksonville is the only city left in Florida that's still entirely Democrat. Even Orlando and Tampa, the other two cities that are "Democrat" have shifted significantly to the right, with Tampa now having more Republicans, and a Republican-majority city commission (and will flip Republican entirely in the next election). There's a reason why Jacksonville has the crime it does.
On that, I see Jacksonville as the last big city in Florida that's affordable. I'm saving up as much as I can in my job right now, and I intend to become a property mogul in Jacksonville, because I think it's only a matter of time before it sees a big resurgence. Of all the cities in Florida, it's the only one that's still affordable for middle-class families around the country that want to come and move to Florida for the zero state income tax, weather, and freedoms that Florida offers. You can still actually buy a beach house for under $400k.
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