NASA Warmer Than Normal Heat Theory: H2O (not CO2) an Entirely Natural...... (Page 1/2)
Vintage-Nut AUG 01, 09:49 AM
Lost in all the hysterical proclamations of “historic” summer heat waves and “hottest day ever” proclamations this summer is a theory that H2O, not CO2 and other trace atmospheric gases, may be driving hotter-than-normal temperatures.

https://thenewamerican.com/...ng-summer-heat-wave/
rinselberg AUG 01, 10:32 AM
Hunga Tonga-Hunga..!
ray b AUG 01, 11:02 AM
20 years ago we had this discussion

H2O is limited by 100% humidly

and an odd concept called RAIN THAT LIMITS H20


sadly CO2 does not do that and stays hundreds of years in the air
ray b AUG 01, 12:54 PM
your link has an ad for the kill a commie for Christ guys

https://jbs.org/coordinator/

good old john birch racist cult that called ike a commie
why is anyone sane on such a site ?
rinselberg AUG 01, 07:29 PM
This is not going to change the scientific consensus that human attributable emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is the main reason for recent and continuing warming of the planet above the preindustrial baseline.

"Tonga Eruption May Temporarily Push Earth Closer to 1.5°C of Warming"

quote
The underwater eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai sent megatons of water vapor into the stratosphere, contributing to an increase in global warming over the next 5 years.


Key paragraph:

quote
Earth’s average temperature is teetering on the edge of surpassing its preindustrial level by 1.5°C—the target set by the United Nations in the Paris Agreement. In May 2022, the World Meteorological Organization announced there was a 50% chance of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold over the next 5 years. The new study showed that slight warming caused by the HTHH [Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai] eruption increased the likelihood of Earth temporarily tipping past that mark by another 7%.


J. Besl for Eos; March 16, 2023.
https://eos.org/articles/to...r-to-1-5c-of-warming


The summer of 2023 has been historic, in terms of the record-breaking high temperatures in so many places across the United States and the Northern Hemisphere, with extreme high temperatures persisting in regions for many straight days and even weeks on end.

It's a "perfect storm" of heat, in which three additional warming factors have conspired (so to speak) with climate change driven by human greenhouse gas emissions:
  1. The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai or HTHH volcanic eruption in January, 2022, that injected a "crazy big" amount of water vapor directly into the stratosphere.
  2. The solar or "sunspot" cycle, which is currently building up to a peak in 2025, when the warming of the earth by the sun will reach its cyclic maximum.
  3. The warming phase or "El Niño" of the oscillatory Pacific Ocean temperature cycle.

There's one more aspect that I am aware of. This is the Northern Hemisphere Polar Jet Stream that is stalling or getting "stuck" as a consequence of the especially rapid warming of the Arctic that is part of the human attributable climate change. This leads to "heat domes" that have persisted for unusually long durations over certain localities in the Northern Hemisphere.

Phoenix stands out for having had 31 consecutive days and nights with daytime highs of 110 or above, and nighttime lows of 90 or above.

This stalling of the Northern Hemisphere Polar Jet Stream is perhaps not one of the "conspirators" but just another aspect of human attributable climate change.


"It’s Not Just Climate Change: Three Other Factors Driving This Summer’s Extreme Heat"
Yale University School of the Environment "E360 Digest"; July 28, 2023.
https://e360.yale.edu/diges...-extreme-heat-causes

"A ‘perfect storm’ is unfolding this summer and it’s ‘supercharging’ the weather, scientist says"
Angela Fritz for CNN; July 11, 2023.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07...gredients/index.html

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 08-01-2023).]

rinselberg AUG 02, 08:47 AM
See my previous post in this thread? The post that was posted immediately before this post? "Immediately," in the sense of sequentiality, not time of day. I aspire for it to be widely hailed as my "marquee" presentation on this topic. But I've come back to this thread for an "encore" performance; to wit:

The John Birch Society boffins at New American are "back at the old stand", doling out misleading narratives involving this summer's record-breaking heat and the Hunga-Tonga Hunga Ha’apai or HTHH volcano.

quote
When the colossal Hunga-Tonga Hunga Ha’apai Volcano erupted, it spewed a massive amount of water vapor into the upper atmosphere. Though the eruption was the most powerful event of its kind since at least 1883, the climate socialists of the Democrat[ic] Party have completely and conveniently forgotten that it happened. They continue to insist that the Biden administration should declare a climate emergency because temperatures are warm in the United States this summer, and in their narrative, human activity is to blame.

Even NASA admits that the big eruption at Tonga emitted a huge amount of water vapor into the atmosphere that “could end up temporarily warming the Earth’s surface.”

Also, despite years of shrieks from climate cultists that the polar ice caps are melting, recent reports suggest that’s not the case at all[.]


"How the Inconvenient Tonga Volcano Eruption Is Warming the Planet"
Paul Dragu for New American; August 1, 2023.
https://thenewamerican.com/...-warming-the-planet/


Washington University's Michael Wysession has a "quality" little report for the non-specialist audience that was just republished today. It's 7 minutes for a careful read. It has two very informative data plots, and a "catchy" GIF of the volcanic eruption to uphold the longstanding journalistic tradition of "eye candy." This report echoes the themes of my previous post. These are its section headers:
  • How El Nino Is Involved
  • Solar Fluctuations
  • A Massive Volcanic Eruption
  • Underlying It All: [Human Attributable] Global Warming
  • What does this mean for the future?

"4 Factors Driving Extreme Heat And Climate Disasters In 2023"
Michael Wysession for the Honolulu Civil Beat; August 2, 2023.
https://www.civilbeat.org/2...e-disasters-in-2023/

This was originally published in The Conversation on July 31, and has some data plots that were omitted when it was republished (as above) in the Honolulu Civil Beat. So here is the link for the original and unabridged visual data presentation:
https://theconversation.com...ate-disasters-209975

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 08-02-2023).]

rinselberg AUG 03, 01:58 AM
August in the Southern Hemisphere is kind of like February in the Northern Hemisphere. This is the Southern Hemisphere's winter. But almost all of South America has been under a giant heat dome. These are record high temperatures, topping at over 100 in many places. This would be extreme hot weather, even for the summer months in the Southern Hemisphere. So they're having an extra hot summer in the middle of winter.

quote
“South America is living one of the extreme events the world has ever seen,” weather historian Maximiliano Herrera tweeted, adding, “This event is rewriting all climatic books.”

The most extreme conditions have occurred in the southern half of the continent, and particularly in the Andes Mountains region.

Temperatures Tuesday rose past 95 degrees (35 Celsius) in numerous locations, including at elevations of about 3,500 to 4,500 feet in the Andes foothills. In some cases, the temperature crested above 100 degrees (38 Celsius) after leaping from morning lows in the 30s and 40s (single-digits Celsius).

Some places have even reached all-time maximums—surpassing summer temperatures, even though it is winter. This has occurred in locations with 20 to 30 years of climate data available, showing how exceptional this heat is compared with recent decades.


"It’s midwinter, but it’s over 100 degrees in South America"
Ian Livingston for the Washington Post; August 2, 2023.
https://www.washingtonpost....eat-argentina-chile/




Here's a "short one" from CubaSi:

"Study finds human activity responsible for record July temperatures"

Complete report:

quote
A new study finds this month’s record-shattering global heat wave would not have been possible without the continuing buildup of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere due to human activity.

Scientists at World Weather Attribution say a rapid analysis of weather data taken this month across China, southern Europe and the American Southwest show high levels of carbon dioxide and other gases helped drive temperatures by as much as four-and-a-half degrees Fahrenheit above pre-industrial levels.
The researchers warn the past 20 days have likely been the hottest such stretch in more than 100,000 years. This comes as new research finds sea ice around Antarctica is in sharp decline and may never recover.

Data from the University of Maine’s Climate Change Institute show almost 2 million square kilometers less sea ice has accumulated so far during the Southern Hemisphere’s winter compared to any previous year.


"RHC" for CubaSi; July 27, 2023.
https://cubasi.cu/en/news/s...rd-july-temperatures


A new research report, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences or PNAS:

"Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events"
Tripathy et al; PNAS; July 2023.
https://www.researchgate.ne..._and_heatwave_events

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 08-03-2023).]

Raydar AUG 03, 10:30 AM
From the article...

"So, why is it that anthropogenic climate change is garnering all the headlines in conjunction with the warm weather being experienced this summer? Why are these other factors rarely, if ever, mentioned when the topic of summer heat is brought up by news anchors and climate-change-invested politicians?

The reason is obvious. These crystal-clear and much more potent factors in global temperature cannot be blamed on man — they’re entirely natural. The narrative that man alone is causing an increase in temperature is too important to be challenged scientifically.

Mankind’s effect on weather is dwarfed by the Earth’s natural drivers of climate. But to hear the propaganda being spouted by climate hysterics, everyone who drives a gas-powered vehicle is personally responsible for the heat waves we experience in summer.

When you consider these natural factors, pronouncements such as UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ declaration that “the era of global boiling has arrived” ring somewhat hollow. It’s much more politically expedient to be able to blame mankind for the weather."

[This message has been edited by Raydar (edited 08-03-2023).]

rinselberg AUG 03, 11:13 AM

quote
Originally posted by Raydar:
"So, why is it that anthropogenic climate change is garnering all the headlines in conjunction with the warm weather being experienced this summer? Why are these other factors rarely, if ever, mentioned when the topic of summer heat is brought up by news anchors and climate-change-invested politicians?


I just used Google to search for media reports published in the last month with the keywords "Tonga", "heat", and "volcano" or "eruption."

I see one brief video report on YouTube, carried by Global News and Yahoo! News Singapore, and text reports from Fortune, Yahoo! News Canada, the Los Angeles Times and a few other lower-profile online media venues.

Scrolling backwards in this thread, I cited a brief report in Honolulu Civil Beat, copied from The Conversation(.com), and another online report from the Yale University School of the Environment. So, not what I would call "marquee" media venues for the general audience.

Now, if I were to use Google Scholar to search the scientific literature... I dunno. I haven't done that. But that would be the scientific literature—not the text or video content that "Joe Consumer of Media News Reports" would be expected to see.

Back to my Google search results... oh, here's ABC News affiliate WQAD8 in Iowa referencing the volcano in connection with the current and recent heat waves of the summer of 2023:
https://www.wqad.com/articl...ef-9fb7-f1c706d4112f

At the end of this online news report, under the section heading of "Something else to consider", there is this:

quote
We often talk about carbon and the need to reduce its footprint in the atmosphere. However, water vapor is one of the biggest greenhouse gases out there today, and thanks to warmer global temperatures, our atmosphere is capable of storing more of it.

Back in January of 2022, when the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano erupted, it sent enormous amounts of water vapor into the stratosphere, enough to fill more than 58,000 Olympic-size swimming pools. This amount of water vapor could be enough to temporarily affect Earth’s global average temperature and may very well also explain why the Earth's global temperature is on the rise, more so in recent months!


This is accompanied by a satellite photo looking down on the ash plume that emanated from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruption of January 2022.

But don't lose sight of this, which I posted previously in this thread:

quote
This [Tonga volcano eruption] is not going to change the scientific consensus that human attributable emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is the main reason for recent and continuing warming of the planet above the preindustrial baseline.


"Tonga Eruption May Temporarily Push Earth Closer to 1.5°C of Warming"

quote
The underwater eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai sent megatons of water vapor into the stratosphere, contributing to an increase in global warming over the next 5 years.


Key paragraph:

quote
Earth’s average temperature is teetering on the edge of surpassing its preindustrial level by 1.5°C—the target set by the United Nations in the Paris Agreement. In May 2022, the World Meteorological Organization announced there was a 50% chance of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold over the next 5 years. The new study showed that slight warming caused by the HTHH [Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai] eruption increased the likelihood of Earth temporarily tipping past that mark by another 7%.


J. Besl for Eos; March 16, 2023.
https://eos.org/articles/to...r-to-1-5c-of-warming

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 08-03-2023).]

rinselberg AUG 04, 06:13 PM
The Fox News weather channel has just SMASHED the leftist-imposed anti-science embargo that was blocking all public reporting about the suspected contribution of the January 2022 Tonga volcano eruption to what's been billed as the "Summer of Human-Attributable Global Warming" by the same liberal establishment-compliant, boot-licking, knee jerk, liberal media biased, mainstream leftwing liberal progressive radical Democrat Marxist-dominated Pelosi Schumer Biden-controlled U.S. news reporting media.

This unexpected and stunning development was witnessed yesterday (August 3, 2023) on the Fox News weather channel or "Fox Weather."

The same reporting was also published on Yahoo!! (The first exclamation point is part of the Yahoo! brand. The second exclamation point ends the sentence with an exclimation.)

I think the version on Yahoo! looks better onscreen because of the larger-sized text. The Fox Weather version has to compete with a sidebar of other "stuff" on the same screen. My suggestion: Yahoo! It's a "two-minute read." Includes some nicely done images.

"How the Tonga volcano eruption could have warmed the planet, study says"
Angeli Gabriel; Yahoo!; August 3, 2023.
https://www.yahoo.com/enter...armed-234439943.html

Same report on Fox Weather:
https://www.foxweather.com/...d-planet-oppenheimer

The report references the same scientific research report that prompted me to say this, previously, in this thread:

This is not going to change the scientific consensus that human attributable emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is the main reason for recent and continuing warming of the planet above the preindustrial baseline.

"Tonga Eruption May Temporarily Push Earth Closer to 1.5°C of Warming"

quote
The underwater eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai sent megatons of water vapor into the stratosphere, contributing to an increase in global warming over the next 5 years.


Key paragraph:

quote
Earth’s average temperature is teetering on the edge of surpassing its preindustrial level by 1.5°C—the target set by the United Nations in the Paris Agreement. In May 2022, the World Meteorological Organization announced there was a 50% chance of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold over the next 5 years. The new study showed that slight warming caused by the HTHH [Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai] eruption increased the likelihood of Earth temporarily tipping past that mark by another 7%.


J. Besl for Eos; March 16, 2023.
https://eos.org/articles/to...r-to-1-5c-of-warming