Economic Collapse ... w/in the next 20 years. (Page 1/2)
82-T/A [At Work] NOV 08, 09:41 AM
I'm being A-political because both sides have been horrible the past ~20 years. But a recent study came out from the Wharton School of Business in the University of Pennsylvania and ... unfortunately, the news is that within less than 20 years, the United States will reach a point at which it would be statistically impossible to pay off the National debt, and that we would go bankrupt as a country (like the USSR did in the early 1990s).

https://budgetmodel.wharton...unsustainable-levels



quote
Under current policy, the United States has about 20 years for corrective action after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt whether explicitly or implicitly (i.e., debt monetization producing significant inflation). Unlike technical defaults where payments are merely delayed, this default would be much larger and would reverberate across the U.S. and world economies.




This is really significant... and it in effect proves that MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) advocates from both sides were totally wrong. The frustrating part is that everyone is concerned about putting money here or there to their particular political interests. But, if our country collapses, none of that matters anymore.

The realistic outcome of this would be that the United States (as a whole) would need to sell off territory to regain some credit... which would assuredly be the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, and Puerto Rico. That is unless these territories vote to separate on their own, in which case we have no say in the matter. We'd likely also sell off Alaska, and my guess is that Hawaii might decide to separate off on their own too. It would be catastrophic.

To be quite honest, the only reason why we haven't collapsed at this point is because following WW2, the US Dollar became the world reserve currency. So, everyone trades in U.S. dollars (to the dismay of China and our enemies). When the dollar is worth essentially nothing, they'd revert to something else... perhaps the Euro, or worse... the Chinese Yuan. I suspect a collapse of our economy though would lead to a severe global depression the likes we've never seen.

For me, all of my savings, and my properties... what would happen then? My savings would be worthless, but I would still have assets. But without an infrastructure to enforce that my various properties were mine... I'd be out of luck, and my tenants would probably become the new owner of my house in South Florida... and any squatters that wanted my vacant lots in Central Florida and New Mexico would probably be able to have at it. I suppose it would be the great equalizer for the have-nots, since they could simply claim what they wanted ... and it's not lost on me that this is likely the intention of the insane spending we've had. That is, to get to this point so the U.S. could be reshaped under an entirely new globalist / oligarch auspice.
ray b NOV 08, 10:12 AM
if and only if they elect a BuSh3 with rerun Gop dogmas

Gop history is bad on the econ they just do not ever get it
cliffw NOV 08, 11:58 AM

quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
The realistic outcome of this would be that the United States (as a whole) would need to sell off territory to regain some credit... which would assuredly be the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, and Puerto Rico. That is unless these territories vote to separate on their own, in which case we have no say in the matter. We'd likely also sell off Alaska, and my guess is that Hawaii might decide to separate off on their own too. It would be catastrophic.



Interesting.

U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, and Puerto Rico, are not property owned by the United States. Also the idea that the United States can sell areas that are occupied by US citizens is abhorrent. The US claims that no State may secede from the United States, despite the Right of Freedom of Assembly.

[This message has been edited by cliffw (edited 11-08-2023).]

82-T/A [At Work] NOV 08, 12:48 PM

quote
Originally posted by cliffw:
Interesting.

U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, and Puerto Rico, are not property owned by the United States. Also the idea that the United States can sell areas that are occupied by US citizens is abhorrent. The US claims that no State may secede from the United States, despite the Right of Freedom of Assembly.



Again, while I absolutely don't like it... when there's an economic collapse, an actual economic collapse, the government essentially ceases to exist. The concept of a U.S. citizen ceases to exist. Government employees are no longer paid, and the entire system of governance collapses to the point where everyone just goes home and does their own thing. Cash has no real value anymore due to hyper-inflation, and people begin trading assets.

So while the Constitution is our governing document, it's for a government that would effectively no longer exist. Throughout the past 100 years, any time this type of situation has occurred in another country, land and assets are either sold off or... the territory itself decides to cede to another country or claims independence.


Respect for the Constitution is only skin-deep... unfortunately. There have been calls for Democrats (by their more aggressive supporters) to disobey Supreme Court rulings. And what then? The Supreme Court has no enforcement mechanism... the institution is obeyed by respect alone for the Constitution. If the President disobeyed the Supreme Court, the only branch then that could affect the President would be Congress. If Congress was supportive of the President, then that goes out the window, but if they were not... the President alone controls the agencies and the military, as every single government organization belongs to the Executive Branch, and the President is the Commander in Chief of the armed forces.

So, while we revere the Constitution... the adherence to it is literally paper thin, by public opinion. And by that point... most of the public would have already been convinced that this was an oppressive system and only helped the wealthy (who'd have been ironically directly responsible for its downfall). And this public would be only too happy to bring about a new government that enslaves them to mediocrity for free cheese.

82-T/A [At Work] NOV 08, 01:01 PM
To add to this... we would hope that the states would at least have enough supportive infrastructure that they could maintain local government. Places like Maryland and most of Virginia, which get the vast majority of their income from the Federal sector (through income tax of Federal employees and Federally-funded businesses) would completely collapse into chaos. States like Texas which has its own oil, power, and water source throughout the state would likely be less affected, though cities like San Antonio might take a hit. But they'd have to rely on their major exports, etc. States like Florida would also be OK... however most of the ultra-wealthy people living there have their money in US dollars, but would likely have moved their money into safe havens (other / more stable countries) as we got closer to default.

Biggest problem yet... what would the individual states do? Depending on how the political fault-lines exist... I wouldn't be surprised if the country split into two separate nations to some degree... which is likely not unintentional.

Humanity would be OK... but it would likely result (eventually) under some global governance "Republic" similar to what the EU currently has in the whole of Europe... and the idea of the United States being on top and the shining city on the hill, would be but a chapter in history.
cliffw NOV 08, 05:30 PM

quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
... when there's an economic collapse, an actual economic collapse, the government essentially ceases to exist. The concept of a U.S. citizen ceases to exist.



Well, that might be true, but, how could a government which has ceased to exist sell property and US citizens ?


quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
... people begin trading assets.



I like the barter system.


quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
States like Texas which has its own oil, power, and water source throughout the state would likely be less affected, though cities like San Antonio might take a hit.



Don't forget our Global Warming cattle farting livestock. Also, cotton crops are plentiful. I think rice crops are also an economic contributor. We also have Gulf of Mexico access to ship world wide.

Good discussion Todd.
82-T/A [At Work] NOV 08, 07:29 PM

quote
Originally posted by cliffw:
Well, that might be true, but, how could a government which has ceased to exist sell property and US citizens ?



My assumption is that this would occur in the months, even the last few years preceding the collapse... but for the most part... people will try to keep the country together. At that point, all I'll have is God and my daughter's pink rifle.



quote
Originally posted by cliffw:
Good discussion Todd.
blackrams NOV 11, 10:05 AM

quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:

For me, all of my savings, and my properties... what would happen then? My savings would be worthless, but I would still have assets. But without an infrastructure to enforce that my various properties were mine... I'd be out of luck, and my tenants would probably become the new owner of my house in South Florida... and any squatters that wanted my vacant lots in Central Florida and New Mexico would probably be able to have at it. I suppose it would be the great equalizer for the have-nots, since they could simply claim what they wanted ... and it's not lost on me that this is likely the intention of the insane spending we've had. That is, to get to this point so the U.S. could be reshaped under an entirely new globalist / oligarch auspice.



I would agree that we (as a country) will follow and fall just like the Soviet Union did back in 1990 due to the way Congress can't seem to control their spending. While both sides of the aisle bear some blame, there is no doubt the majority of fault lays on the Democrat side of the aisle. Buying votes may keep a party in power but will eventually result in the blame falling squarely on that party, why the voters don't see and understand this is beyond my comprehension. Just keep kicking that tin can down the road and let someone else figure it out.

As far as personal finances, anyone that conducts their personal finances the way our government does is also doomed to fail. Currently, US debt, credit card debt and decreasing savings are running rampant. Trying to maintain the lifestyle/standard of living and comforts of three years ago today is pure lunacy. As our dollars become de-valued, the smart family will decrease their standard of living to accommodate the lessor value of the dollars in their wallets and banking accounts. To try and maintain that standard of living using credit cards is absolute lunacy.

While I do carry a credit card for emergencies, I haven't used it in a very long time and in fact have only used it so as to allow it to stay current.  IOW's, it may get used once a year. My home and all vehicles are paid for so, my only bills are utility, food. fuel and things like insurance. I like it that way, allows me more opportunity to buy ammunition.

Rams

[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 11-11-2023).]

Wichita NOV 12, 02:39 PM


Meanwhile kids are not being taught math, let alone personal finance.

[This message has been edited by Wichita (edited 11-12-2023).]

rinselberg NOV 12, 02:53 PM
Yeah. Wichita posted a clever and insightful meme/cartoon—once.

That one was no more representative of the mountain of other rubbish, anymore than this cartoon...



... is representative of the public schools.


Are there outliers? Exceptions to that which is representative? No doubt.


What catches Wichita's eye is of little or no significance, compared to everything else that doesn't.