The Lewis Turning Point economics (Page 1/5)
maryjane FEB 10, 09:40 AM
The Lewis Turning Point is an economic theory involving the point at which a demographic (usually a nation's workforce) reaches the point in which the supply of surplus labor from rural areas, for employment in cities, is exhausted.
Much is currently being postulated regarding when China reaches that point (some say it already has) but my specific question is:
When did (or will) the US breach it's own Lewis Turning Point?
82-T/A [At Work] FEB 10, 10:03 AM

quote
Originally posted by maryjane:

The Lewis Turning Point is an economic theory involving the point at which a demographic (usually a nation's workforce) reaches the point in which the supply of surplus labor from rural areas, for employment in cities, is exhausted.
Much is currently being postulated regarding when China reaches that point (some say it already has) but my specific question is:
When did (or will) the US breach it's own Lewis Turning Point?




I would tease what the term "exhausted" fully means... as in, there are not enough people available, or... not enough "willing" people. Interesting theory, I'd never heard of it but glad you mentioned it.

We're obviously in a situation right now. Here in Tampa where I live, it's the #1 / #2 place for people to move to from all over the country (depending on which website you look at). Prices for homes are just absolutely insane. My house alone has already gone up over $110k, and I've not even been here more than 8 months.

But one of the things I've seen... restaurants are going out of business, everywhere. It's not because they can't get any business... but they can't get anyone to work. Dozens and dozens of restaurants, same thing... can't find anyone to work. Just the other day, there was a restaurant with outdoor seating... it's packed every single night that I drive by it... completely packed with people standing outside waiting to get in. This is right outside a quiet neighborhood, and it's not small either. The size of a large Applebees. They had help wanted signs all over. Finally one day, closed for good. Didn't even bring in the furniture...it's all still sitting out there. There are at least 8 other restaurants nearby, same thing.


The question I have though, is WHY can't they get anyone to work? There are more people living here? Maybe the people who worked sold their homes, cashed out, and moved away? At first I thought it was because the Biden administration was paying people to stay home... but everyone tells me those payments are finished. So... I have no answers. I know a lot of people supposedly died from COVID, but that was mostly older people, and those with co-morbidness as they say. So, I don't get it.
MidEngineManiac FEB 10, 10:33 AM
A lot of people have learned they can make the same or more in the gig economy, day trading, investing, temp work, buying-selling stuff.....whatever.

AND they don't have to put up with ANY of the B-S that comes along with "a job".

Personally, I think its just another facet of what the truckers are doing, and many have been doing all along. Quietly saying "screw you" to "the system"
maryjane FEB 10, 10:39 AM
Neither of those replys came close to answering the question. It has zero to do with the current labor situation in either Canada or the US.
A specific year or decade.

Know the answer or do not.
MidEngineManiac FEB 10, 10:43 AM
Dont think there IS a specific answer.

The labor market is constantly changing. The "rural labor pool" to supply cities industry has shifted to "city work-from-homes" to supply rural communities with consumers.

When exactly it started ? When did automation and computerization start ? It's not a hard line, its a gradual shift.
82-T/A [At Work] FEB 10, 10:57 AM

quote
Originally posted by maryjane:

Neither of those replys came close to answering the question. It has zero to do with the current labor situation in either Canada or the US.
A specific year or decade.

Know the answer or do not.




Haha, MJ, please re-read... I wasn't answering. I was also asking a question, hoping maybe you had additional insight.
maryjane FEB 10, 11:06 AM

quote
Originally posted by MidEngineManiac:

Dont think there IS a specific answer.



There is for China, there is for Guatemala, there is for India, there is for Great Britain, there is for most individual European countries...why would there not be for the US?
(It's usually a specific decade)
2.5 FEB 10, 11:12 AM
What are they saying regarding when China reaches that point?
sourmash FEB 10, 11:14 AM
The US aging population is part of the issue.
People moving to Florida are cashing out of states with even higher house values, so they're banking money in the moves.

The removal of jobs is another issue. The coal industry in rural Appalachia being an example. What else are those people supposed to do to build an economy? Cut all the trees down to sell?

The USA is 30 trillion in debt with ever lowering manufacturing capabilities. China has millions upon millions upon 10s of millions of people to fulfill employment needs.

Their gov is fostering Chinese people to reproduce because they're aging and woman are not marrying. You'll never see that from our US chit government. They hate us, the ethnic founding stock's progeny.

US gov now is providing free crack smoking kits, for a reason. The illegals trafficking cheap drugs from Mexico is another facet of the modern day Opium addiction like that of the Sassoon family which was spoon fed to the Chinese.

They're creating another Weimar Republic in the USA in order to bleed us of as much wealth as possible.
2.5 FEB 10, 11:30 AM

quote
Originally posted by maryjane:

The Lewis Turning Point is an economic theory involving the point at which a demographic (usually a nation's workforce) reaches the point in which the supply of surplus labor from rural areas, for employment in cities, is exhausted.
Much is currently being postulated regarding when China reaches that point (some say it already has) but my specific question is:
When did (or will) the US breach it's own Lewis Turning Point?



From a little searching, when a place hits that point, they think apparently the wages would go up? I'd guess because people who accept low wages arent there anymore for some reason.

I'm not sure how it could be measured in the US, as we artificially play with wages too much, we do bad things that affect inflation, etc. Combined with What 82-TA mentioned, (some people ...primarily perhaps who arent in rural areas.. dont want to work, and some are paid even when they don't) ...figuring out how that would affect it all sounds like trying to measure something that keeps changing shape. Also how does AI replacing workers figure into it?

Does "the great resignation" come into play?
Here is a little about that:

[This message has been edited by 2.5 (edited 02-10-2022).]