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| Oil price guesses 6 months 1 year (Page 1/5) |
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ray b
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MAR 10, 11:22 AM
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Oil
well lets see who is good at guessing oil prices
current oil spot WTI Crude 115.7
Brent Crude 118.1
yesterdays close
I say it goes under $100 before it hits 150 ever
and settles under 85 post war by mid summer for my 6 month number
one year from now oil price 90
right now I say buy puts 6 10 months out under 90
look forget your political spin
and think supply / price demand
high price = more production = lower price future
NO BS just your price guesses
lets see who gets the best guess
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2.5
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MAR 10, 12:13 PM
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Jake_Dragon
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MAR 10, 02:11 PM
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Its not price that is effecting this nation, its independence. Its being able to trust those in charge of our nation not to sell us out.
How is it not a conflict of interest being part of the government and having relatives in high offices of other nations energy companies?
Seriously how do they still have a job when another nation has that kind of leverage on their family?
Time to start sanctions against those in our own government.
My Guess Too damn high
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82-T/A [At Work]
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MAR 10, 05:05 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by ray b:
Oil
well lets see who is good at guessing oil prices
current oil spot WTI Crude 115.7
Brent Crude 118.1
yesterdays close
NO BS just your price guesses
lets see who gets the best guess |
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So a bit of "secret" news that's not really being reported in the media...
In December of last year, facing dropping polls, Biden opened back up ALL of the oil leases on Federal lands, and has already approved 2 new pipelines. I won't get into WHY this isn't making the news, and why he's not touting it... that's for the other forum. But... that's where we are. Something worth mentioning though is that it generally takes a full year for this industry to get back up and running when it's shut down.
SO...
6 months... I think crude gets to possibly $150... more likely about 140.
1 year... I think it's back down to $100 or below.
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Raydar
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MAR 10, 07:55 PM
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I think it drops between Labor Day and Thanksgiving. A bunch.
As others have said, there is no shortage. There is plenty of oil and plenty of gas.
The speculators are running the price up, because that's how it works. At some point (probably after the summer vacation/driving season), they're going to have an "awshit moment" and start selling, hoping to avoid the price crash.
When the first ones start selling, everyone else will too, in short order, in order to minimize their losses.
So... I think it will be below $100 by the first week in November.
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randye
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MAR 10, 08:24 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by Raydar:
So... I think it will be below $100 by the first week in November.
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Gee, I wonder what else happens in the first week of November 2022? 
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Raydar
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MAR 10, 08:44 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by randye:
Gee, I wonder what else happens in the first week of November 2022?
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Exactly.
But here's something else that occurred to me, after I made my first post.
Suppose the oil companies are keeping the prices high, on purpose, in order to make Brandon look bad.
| quote | Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
So a bit of "secret" news that's not really being reported in the media...
In December of last year, facing dropping polls, Biden opened back up ALL of the oil leases on Federal lands, and has already approved 2 new pipelines. I won't get into WHY this isn't making the news, and why he's not touting it... that's for the other forum. But... that's where we are.
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Interesting. (My theory is above.)
My take? I think it's a stroke of genius on the part of the speculators, it it's true. If it runs certain people out of office (or out of town) it might almost be worth it.[This message has been edited by Raydar (edited 03-10-2022).]
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Valkrie9
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MAR 10, 08:48 PM
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!
April 1 '22
$16 / gal us
System crash
Hyper-inflation
Depression
War
Biden_Joe's plan for you.
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maryjane
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MAR 10, 10:37 PM
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| quote | | high price = more production = lower price future |
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Not necessarily.
That has been the case in the past, but the companies that own most of the leases in the Permian Basin say "Not this time".
They learned their lesson last time and ended up with negative cash flow.
Contrary to popular belief, the majors ( "Big Oil") don't own most ofthe wells and leases in the biggest oil reserve in the US (maybe the world)
Independents (have no refineries) do.
Names most people have never heard of.
Pioneer, Occidental, Devon, Oxy, Mewborne, Hart, Endeavor, Diamondback, EOG, Apache, Laredo and others.
The only majors that own leases out there are Exxon/Mobil, Conoco Phillips, and Chevron and as a percent of the total, they are each minorities.
Occidental is by far the biggest.
I won't hazard a guess because much of the run up in prices has little to do with O&G fundamentals. War scare and paper oil.
At some point tho, futures sellers will start to pull back because they worry about finding a buyer when the contract is due.
There is NO shortage of production right now. There is no shortage of refining. We are tho, running at about 87% refining capacity. (we will never be at 100% because of maintenance requirements and cracking units have to come off line for catalyst replacement and decoking and insulation replacements) (I am concerned tho, on the relative low storage levels in Cushing Hub)[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 03-10-2022).]
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82-T/A [At Work]
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MAR 11, 08:47 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by maryjane:
Not necessarily.
That has been the case in the past, but the companies that own most of the leases in the Permian Basin say "Not this time".
They learned their lesson last time and ended up with negative cash flow.
Contrary to popular belief, the majors ( "Big Oil") don't own most ofthe wells and leases in the biggest oil reserve in the US (maybe the world)
Independents (have no refineries) do.
Names most people have never heard of.
Pioneer, Occidental, Devon, Oxy, Mewborne, Hart, Endeavor, Diamondback, EOG, Apache, Laredo and others.
The only majors that own leases out there are Exxon/Mobil, Conoco Phillips, and Chevron and as a percent of the total, they are each minorities.
Occidental is by far the biggest.
I won't hazard a guess because much of the run up in prices has little to do with O&G fundamentals. War scare and paper oil.
At some point tho, futures sellers will start to pull back because they worry about finding a buyer when the contract is due.
There is NO shortage of production right now. There is no shortage of refining. We are tho, running at about 87% refining capacity. (we will never be at 100% because of maintenance requirements and cracking units have to come off line for catalyst replacement and decoking and insulation replacements) (I am concerned tho, on the relative low storage levels in Cushing Hub)
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I made out like a bandit the past month. Back in March, I purchased Occidental, Schlumberger, Haliburton, Diamongback, Conoco Phillips, FAANG, and a couple of others. I figured gas prices were going to go up under Biden, and I saw Russia encroaching on Ukraine.
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