What are you all doing to prepare for a possible recession? (Page 1/3)
82-T/A [At Work] MAR 29, 04:31 PM
Things I'm hearing from a lot of sources:

1 - Major food shortages coming
2 - Inflation is expected to double
3 - Major recession expected to hit (tank the market) in the next 8 months


So I've bought several buckets of the Wise food that I've been storing in my pantry. When I see a good deal on them, I stock up some more. I only have 3 months of it... so I don't know if that's enough. I'd like to have enough so that if my neighbors have issues, I can give some to them as well... which I was able to do at the start of COVID when everything was completely shut down for a while. I have plenty of savings to get me through if I get laid off. Not sure what to do about water storage... though I don't expect that to really be an issue.

Not sure what I plan to do with my investments that are not in IRAs or long-term accounts... but I'll worry about that later.

What are you guys doing?
TheDigitalAlchemist MAR 30, 12:26 AM
Not looking forward to the next few years.

[This message has been edited by TheDigitalAlchemist (edited 03-30-2022).]

OldsFiero MAR 30, 07:59 AM
Probably not much. We live in a rural mostly agricultural area so it's somewhat depressed economically. We don't feel recessions as bad as some places do. I shoot a lot of the meat we eat. I can 'earn' beef from a neighbor for working on his equipment. We have a garden and do a lot of canning. As long as we can afford electricity and gas, we should be OK.

Marc
maryjane MAR 30, 08:40 AM

quote
Major food shortages coming



what makes you say/think that?
82-T/A [At Work] MAR 30, 09:05 AM

quote
Originally posted by maryjane:

what makes you say/think that?




Well, I'm referring specifically to this:

Biden Warns of Food Shortages in Wake of Russia–Ukraine War: ‘It’s Going to Be Real’
https://news.yahoo.com/bide...-wake-011511879.html


Some of the discussion points are:

- Ukraine / Russia are basically the major producers of wheat, so this will be a limited resource.
- With a lack of pasta and breads, people will likely go to other foods, which will create an increased demand on that.
- The United States can step up and produce more wheat, but Biden has already committed to sending over any wheat we produce to support Europe
- ... which means less wheat in the US, and whatever else that farmland was producing before it switched to wheat.
- Inflation is expected to hit double-digits when the numbers are released at the next schedule
- supply chain seems to continue to be an issue, though I'm not sure why (still)... but grocery store shelves all over Tampa are half-empty.


Now, I realize that concern for things like this can actually lead to things like this happening (e.g., people buying toilet paper, etc.). I also realize that we haven't seen a food shortage in both our lifetimes... not since the 1940s during wartime. But there's a lot of things that have happened in my lifetime that I didn't expect to see in our country.

So, for me, it's about security for the family, and if at the end of the day... I'm just buying food at cheaper prices now than they will be later, then it's still a win. I've bought about 3 months worth of the ReadyWISE food... all of it which is actually pretty good. I think I need this stuff anyway because there are several times in (my) Florida history where we've been without power for a couple of weeks, and stores were all closed. So having some stored food is a good thing.

Also, during the start of COVID-19, when everyone was freaking out, several of my single friends didn't have any food in their fridges, but I had enough that I told them to drive to my house and I was able to give them food until the city of San Antonio started opening up businesses again for what they called essential business.

So, just looking to be prepared.


I am a very strong believer that bad things happen when you are not prepared. In every one of my cars, I have ponchos, a flashlight, an emergency radio, three MREs, some spare blankets, and a few other things stashed away in compartments in my cars (usually near the spare tire or in a side compartment). I also have a tourniquet, a window breaking tool, and a flashlight readily accessible in my center console. I will probably never use them... but if I can help someone, or save my family with just a little bit of pre-planning... then I'm good.

I'm definitely not a prepper... just like to be a little prepared.
Hank is Here MAR 30, 09:11 AM
Honestly I am not doing anything out of the normal. Recessions are "normal" cycles. Depressions are totally different for which I am unprepared; but we havent have one in ~90 years.

Food...I have a freezer with 65+lbs of various cuts of beef; annually I buy an 1/8th of a cow from a buddy who rasies them. We have small garden, which I could easily expand if needed.

Water...our house has a well so as long as we have electric we have water.

Housing.....I could pay off the mortgage today, if needed but I don't want to.

Other costs...utilities no way around electric....we could lower the thmerostat in the winter if needed. Cars...all paid for..I drive an appliance a 2003 Honda Accord w/ 317k, it just works with minimal outaise of regular PM's....but the downside the car is soulless to drive.

If the market "tanks" in six months.....then 4- 6 months after that I'll plan a big buy into the markets to get the stocks while they are "on sale." IE this is why I don't feel like paying off my mortgage.
82-T/A [At Work] MAR 30, 09:36 AM

quote
Originally posted by Hank is Here:

Cars...all paid for..I drive an appliance a 2003 Honda Accord w/ 317k, it just works with minimal outaise of regular PM's....but the downside the car is soulless to drive.





Wanted to respond to this separately. I think sometimes it depends. The car may not have a "soul" so to speak when you buy it... but part of what the car becomes to us, is what gives it a "soul."

I owned this car from 2008 until 2019. I eventually gave it away (free) to a kid in my neighborhood because I was leaving for an extended work trip, and didn't want my wife to have to deal with it.




I LOVED this car. I traded in my 2006 Pontiac Solstice for it, with some cash back to me... I can't remember how much, but I wanted something that was still "sporty," but that I could haul things and take my daughter in. I bought it when I found out my daughter was pregnant. Now... I know it's just an explorer, and when I got it, it only had 32k miles on it. But by the time I donated it, it had almost 200k miles on it, and I really loved the car.
Hank is Here MAR 30, 10:29 AM

quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
Wanted to respond to this separately. I think sometimes it depends. The car may not have a "soul" so to speak when you buy it... but part of what the car becomes to us, is what gives it a "soul."



I have been driving my Accord for 5+ years; even after all that time, to me, it has no soul....heck my wife has owned the car since "new" (~20 years) so the time factor has had the chance to kick in. In my opinion, most Honda's don't have any soul and I dont' look forward to driving; I am not saying they are not good cars becuase the are, they just work with minimal maintenance But heck ins't this what you want if a recession starts?

Don't get me wrong I WANT a family daily driver with a soul but I don't NEED one.....especially with auto prices where they are now.

On the flip side I think I own a motorcycle with a deep soul to it. It is a Ural sidecare motorcycle. I have helped develop the soul it it. It is a Russian made bike based off a general German design... I upgraded the alternator... I sourced it from a Romanian fellow who assembled it from: parts from a Ukranian motorcycle, a Chinese made alternator, which was take off of a Korean assembled car; and to boot it has Japenese carburetors on it. The bike sounds like an angry singer sowing machine, and rides like a piece of farm equipment in highway gear. it oozes soul.
(politics aside....I hope I don't need any parts this season since I typically order from a shop in St. Petersburg and pay via paypal... which won't process now). I think there are some Polish shops were I can soruce from but they don't have the same parts availability.)
Jake_Dragon MAR 30, 10:59 AM
Going to keep my eye open for a cheap Cobra kit car with a 427 and a hard top.
Spend all my money on it to impress the girl with the big hooters and nice bum
maryjane MAR 30, 11:28 AM
China
India
Russia
United States
France
Australia
Canada
Pakistan
All produce more wheat than Ukraine with Germany next in line producing almost as much as Ukraine.

Canada, United Staes and France combined export more wheat than Russia and Ukraine combined.


The US planted about 10% less wheat last year than the previous years and harvest was predictably lower because of it.
The 5 year average for US wheat production is 1.9 billion bushels, with 2021 harvest coming in at an estimated 1.6 billion bushels.

Drought is in progress over a large % of the US midwest and western states and 2021 was almost as bad.

This is going to be a much bigger influence on wheat/corn/soybean/cereal grains production than Russia/Ukraine or a recession, and because of it, possible lower beef prices in the short term due to a herd selloff (which is already getting underway) but higher prices in the long term (about 2-3 years hence) once the selloff is complete and the cycle begins anew.

BTDT in 2011 when the biggest selloff in US history took place and we ended up with the smallest herd nationally in over 60 years. It didn't recover until 2014. (That's how long it takes to retain heifer calves, raise them to breeding age, get them bred and produce their 1st calf crop to go to slaughter. )