Get ready, the 2nd big sell off in 11 years is now underway (Page 1/3)
maryjane JUL 03, 01:45 AM
Don't know what it will mean to the end consumer, but Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas cattlemen large and small operators are culling herds hard because of drought conditions. Many are already feeding hay and by August, the selloff will really be in high gear. Hay will be in very short supply (and expensive as hades IF available) and no one wants to feed corn thru winter.
repeat of late 2011 when the national beef herd was at a 65 year low.

blackrams JUL 03, 09:54 AM
I kind of expected this. Happens whenever drought conditions are extreme and lasting.

Wishing I had more acreage, might be time to start raising goats. They'll eat almost anything..................

Rams
ls3mach JUL 03, 10:55 AM
Wait, so all the conspiracies I see on FB aren't accurate and it really is just a drought?

Is there a word for a legitimate sarcastic question?
Wichita JUL 03, 11:03 AM
This may sound bad, but man has beef been terribly expensive for many years. I'm starting to see the price coming down a bit at the grocery store, but it still doesn't come close to the price of pork.

Hell, even wild caught salmon was cheaper than a decent cut piece of beef from Sam's Club.

Although I do prefer pork over beef any day, but its nice to smoke a brisket every once in awhile, though not at $70-$100.

Beef, to me, isn't worth it at $8-$10 a pound, it's just not.

ls3mach JUL 03, 11:21 AM

quote
Originally posted by Wichita:

This may sound bad, but man has beef been terribly expensive for many years. I'm starting to see the price coming down a bit at the grocery store, but it still doesn't come close to the price of pork.

Hell, even wild caught salmon was cheaper than a decent cut piece of beef from Sam's Club.

Although I do prefer pork over beef any day, but its nice to smoke a brisket every once in awhile, though not at $70-$100.

Beef, to me, isn't worth it at $8-$10 a pound, it's just not.



That is an interesting take. Is beef cheaper to produce than oinks? I would t hink turnaround on pig is months,not year(s)? I don't ever remember buying a brisket for less than $70-100. I managed a grocery store as a youth and Oklahoma I think is probably as cheap as beef comes. $7/lb isn't even a 10lb brisket. Corn beef sure, but that's either point or flat and much smaller.

I don't think salmon is nearly as good as beef. I really love pork and bought a ton of loins and froze them. Bought a bunch of bacon and sausage the same way. It is actually time to load up again.

Chicken is the one I haven't seen drop. I could buy whole chickens $5. Breast $1.99/lb. Legs were $.69/lb and under regularly.
82-T/A [At Work] JUL 03, 11:55 AM

quote
Originally posted by maryjane:

Don't know what it will mean to the end consumer, but Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas cattlemen large and small operators are culling herds hard because of drought conditions.




I wonder if this means temporary significant reduction in beef prices, only to be followed in 6 months by extremely high beef prices for the next ~2-3 years?
MidEngineManiac JUL 03, 01:03 PM

quote
Originally posted by ls3mach:


That is an interesting take. Is beef cheaper to produce than oinks? I would t hink turnaround on pig is months,not year(s)? I don't ever remember buying a brisket for less than $70-100. I managed a grocery store as a youth and Oklahoma I think is probably as cheap as beef comes. $7/lb isn't even a 10lb brisket. Corn beef sure, but that's either point or flat and much smaller.

I don't think salmon is nearly as good as beef. I really love pork and bought a ton of loins and froze them. Bought a bunch of bacon and sausage the same way. It is actually time to load up again.

Chicken is the one I haven't seen drop. I could buy whole chickens $5. Breast $1.99/lb. Legs were $.69/lb and under regularly.



Chicken here is pricey as hell (so is everything). A decent rotisserie bird will set you back $15. box of 20 burgers is $25, and dont get me started on steak. I love ma dead red meat, but 50 bucks for a little piece, ya gotta be out of your tree.

Cull the herd and keep 'em. At that price, eat it yourself or throw it in the dumpster. Dont much care which.
ls3mach JUL 03, 02:01 PM

quote
Originally posted by MidEngineManiac:


Chicken here is pricey as hell (so is everything). A decent rotisserie bird will set you back $15. box of 20 burgers is $25, and dont get me started on steak. I love ma dead red meat, but 50 bucks for a little piece, ya gotta be out of your tree.

Cull the herd and keep 'em. At that price, eat it yourself or throw it in the dumpster. Dont much care which.



I think $5 cooked rotisserie are still a thing here. There might even be a lawsuit going on because they are selling below cost. I haven't bought one in many years, I actually meant the whole hen. I am sure I must've bought a box of burgers at some point in my life... Bubba Burgers were the brand our meat market manager swore were so great back in my grocery days. I thought they were mediocre and expensive. Last chub of ground chuck (80/20) I bought was $30/10lbs. I had in previous years bought for $20. I have not in memory ever seen it below $15 and that was for ground beef (73% we called it fat and nasty in the grocery store). I honestly think it taste better than chuck or round, but cooks down a ton. I have 2 porterhouse in my freezer I got for $10 each and I bought 20-28oz packed pork loins ranging from $1.99 - $2.50. These were dated but frozen prior. This particular grocery store sells a bunch of stuff like that. Lunchmeat. Lunchables. Johnsonville brawts. Sausage. Bacon. Random other things and I will hit them up every other month or so. Them being dated makes them ungodly cheap. I bought 16oz lunchmeat 3/$5.

People are selling food stamps a lot less now I noticed. I've never actively bought any, but everyone I know selling them (some getting $800+ a month) have dried up. A girl I know asked me to buy some off her at the end of the month when hers renewed. I don't know what happened, but she ended up needing all of them for her and her new baby (which I assume is on WIC). I won't be discussing anyone's life choices, but even so I hate people going hungry when we throw over 40% of the world's food away each year. Cooking and meals were important to my granny's. They were depression era people. I can't tell you how upset they'd be at food cost now.


EDT
Don, a local grocery store has Blue Bell $3.00 a half gallon this weekend. That is insane as pints are $3.84 at Wal-mart. Weird story that I know that so specifically. I remember we could never afford it unless it was on sale 3 or 4 for $10 when I was a kid.

[This message has been edited by ls3mach (edited 07-03-2022).]

MidEngineManiac JUL 03, 08:12 PM
I dunno dude, I've never bought or sold food stamps.

I can tell ya, I've walked into a pharmacy for Kim and walked out $900 lighter for stuff that wasnt covered. Dad's cancer in 2014...jeeze I was blowing money faster than Hunter can snort coke or Maxwell spread them.

Pack of adult diapers ? That'll be 40. The special ones for chaffing ? That'll be $175....3 couches got destroyed by piss because her bladder is done? Couple grand there. Case of Ensure ? Beer is cheaper than that chalk.

And thats just the big C...not like a stroke Steve and Mel went through.

I dunno...guess I gotta go north again and find a mine that hasn't been totally used up.
ls3mach JUL 03, 08:29 PM
I've been though all that crap too Mike and it sucks. I haven't ever bought any food stamps either. They sell at 2:1 is my understanding. I have put people together, and people for sure have bought me food stamp stuff. Especially when they want me to cook something they normally can't cook. Her having a fresh baby and neither of us are young, plus her getting that much in stamps is ridiculous.

I had to buy some adult diapers recently and they were pricey. When my father was doing the cancer thing we had to force him to drink Ensure or whatever too. I think $10 an 8 back or something. Easily more expensive than beer and harder to get him to drink. No idea the cost of prescriptions. I haven't handled that portion of any cancers at this point. I for sure had to pick them up sometimes or even pay, but it wasn't with enough regularity for me to have any concept of the total cost. Especially with both cancers being so advanced and powerful. Both went immediately to full disability and it never changed. That was EXTREMELY difficult getting both approved.

Back on task.
I've been making a lot of carnitas with all these loins. Made something a little different today with them. Black peppercorn and bacon crusted. It was one of their BS prepackaged jobs and after being unfrozen didn't come out like I wanted from the package. $2 for 26oz of good tasting pork though, so I made due. Whipped up some rice/quinoa and made more of a "tips and rice". It was a common poor meal we had in Louisiana.

How is Kim doing Mike? I hope better and you guys are getting some normalcy.