Winter Storm Elliot ravaged much of the U.S., but how do climate scientists view it? (Page 1/1)
rinselberg JAN 01, 07:38 AM
"A ‘Once in a Generation’ Storm. What’s the Role of Climate Change?"

quote
The deadly freeze that swept the United States was extraordinary, but while scientists know that global warming can intensify extreme weather, the effects on winter storms are tricky to untangle.


Henry Fountain (of knowledge) for the New York Times; December 28, 2022.
https://www.nytimes.com/202...-climate-change.html

It's a 4-minute read. Odds are, if you're here you're not an online subscriber to the New York Times, but it could be available for you as a "freebie". I remember someone on this forum saying that there's a simple "hack" for non-subscribers to see articles like this. Maybe he'll show up here and refresh my memory on that. I don't remember the hack.

Key words and phrases:
Arctic air mass, polar vortex, bomb cyclone, polar jet stream instability, warming winter temperatures, Arctic warming, lake effect snow, lake effect rain, temperature differentials, pine beetles, "air can hold more moisture when it’s warmer."

"Henry Fountain specializes in the science of climate change and its impacts. He has been writing about science for The [New York] Times for more than 20 years and has traveled to the Arctic and Antarctica."

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 01-01-2023).]

fieroguru JAN 01, 09:22 AM
From an East Central Illinois perspective (results/perspective will vary by area) it was a pretty typical winter storm that we have most years. Just looking at the last 7 years, it didn't have the coldest days, the most snow, or the most days with low temps below 0. It probably ranked 3rd or 4th in the last 7 years, definitely not a once in a generation storm.

2022 - Dec 23-25 Low temps of -11, -8, 2 with about 3" of snow.
2022 - Jan 26-27 Low temps of -2, -1 with no snow.
2021 - Feb 13-17 Low temps of -1, -4, 0, -5, -8 with about 6" of snow.
2020 - Feb 13-15 Low temps of 0, --5, 0 with 3" about 3" of snow
2019 - Jan 25 - 31 Low temps of -1, -1, 4, 9, -2, -17, -9 with about 1" of snow.
2018 - Jan 1 - Jan 5 Low temps of -15, -14, 0, -4, -4, -6 with about 1" of snow. If you were looking for our coldest week in the last 7 years, this would be 8 consecutive days with low temps of 0 or below.
2017 - Dec 30 -31 Low temps of -1, -5
2017 - Jan 6 - 8 Low temps of -2, -3, 1
2016 - Dec 18 -19 Low temps of -2, -4

All the data can be found in the information here: https://stateclimatologist....ta/champaign-urbana/

[This message has been edited by fieroguru (edited 01-01-2023).]

maryjane JAN 01, 10:01 AM
We used to just call this sort of thing a blue norther. I'm not sure exactly when they changed the name of it and started making a big deal of it.

NYT and others?
Click the 'X' to the left of the address bar as soon as you see text load.
MidEngineManiac JAN 01, 10:57 AM
There is a very technical name for this sort of thing.

"Winter"
Jake_Dragon JAN 01, 11:32 AM

quote
Topic: Winter Storm Elliot ravaged much of the U.S., but how do climate scientists view it?
cliffw JAN 02, 08:58 AM

quote
Originally posted by rinselberg:
.... Winter Storm Elliot ravaged ....



I have never heard of Elliot. Who named that frigid weather Elliot ? That is as worthless as what the national news outlets called it. The bomb cyclone.
rinselberg JAN 02, 02:02 PM

quote
Originally posted by cliffw:
I have never heard of Elliot. Who named that frigid weather Elliot? That is as worthless as what the national news outlets called it. The bomb cyclone.


I naively thought that "Winter Storm Elliot" came from the National Weather Service, but being prompted to check this out, it's just something that the Weather Channel came up with. The Weather Channel started this practice in 2012. So "Winter Storm Elliot" is no more official than the Weather Channel itself (a private enterprise), and reading between the lines of this brief article, I think that "Winter Storm Elliot" will not be used by the National Weather Service in any of the information that it creates and archives.

"Do winter storms really have names?"
https://www.ksat.com/weathe...s-really-have-names/
cliffw JAN 02, 03:51 PM

quote
Originally posted by rinselberg:
"Do winter storms really have names?"




quote
Originally posted by rinselberg:
I’m sure everyone here remembers the devastating winter storm of February 2021.



That is a name of a weather event that people will know exactly what the weather event was.

Frigid Freeze, 2022. If there is more than one a year, give them Roman numerals.

[This message has been edited by cliffw (edited 01-02-2023).]

Raydar JAN 02, 04:46 PM

quote
Originally posted by rinselberg:

I naively thought that "Winter Storm Elliot" came from the National Weather Service, but being prompted to check this out, it's just something that the Weather Channel came up with. The Weather Channel started this practice in 2012. So "Winter Storm Elliot" is no more official than the Weather Channel itself (a private enterprise), and reading between the lines of this brief article, I think that "Winter Storm Elliot" will not be used by the National Weather Service in any of the information that it creates and archives.
...



As you said, the Weather Channel has been naming winter storms for some time, now. Kinda all warm and fuzzy in a "people are possibly gonna die" kind of way.
That said, I find that the Weather Channel seems to have a very high opinion of itself, which I do not share. I'll spare the readers an explanation.

"Bomb Cyclone", OTOH, while sounding dramatic as hell, is an abbreviation of a real meteorological term.
The fact that the effects are kind of similar to what the abbreviation sounds like, is a "happy" coincidence.

[This message has been edited by Raydar (edited 01-02-2023).]

OldsFiero JAN 06, 04:53 PM
True story. The other day, I read in a magazine that several research organizations actually wasted the time and money to see how accurate the ground hog's predictions were.
They decided that he was right 50% of the time. I said to my wife, " Well how about that. That danged woodchuck really is a weatherman, he's right the same amount as The Weather Channel."

Marc