The EV Transition is Harder Than Anyone Thinks (Page 1/5)
OldGuyinaGT AUG 01, 03:28 PM
Opening full disclosure: I copied the title of this thread from the first article I'm referencing here from

The EV Transition Is Harder Than Anyone Thinks

Also, I though about putting this under the 'Politics and Religion' heading, but the information I'm trying to make available is mostly apolitical, and is more technological.

I've been watching all the news about the sometimes mandated coming transition to electric cars, and most outlets, regardless of where they fall in the political spectrum, fail to address many factors required to produce, and especially support, a transition to a majority of personal vehicles in the US to EVs. The biggest part of the problem, IMO, is the lack of understanding and knowledge on the part of the general population, from lawmakers to media to the guy on the street.

Besides my lifelong interest in cars, I'm in the electronics industry, so when the IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) published this free e-book

The EV Transition Explained (PDF download)

I was very interested. It seems few in the media (or academia) have considered in any detail the primary and peripheral impacts of large scale EV adoption. This publication does that. I'm posting here to spread information this around in the hopes that more people will understand the overall situation. Just as an example, my sister and brother-in-law bought my parents' house in an upscale neighborhood that was built in the mid-60's. Then they bought a Mustang Mach-E. They can charge it at home, but unless they upgrade their electrical service from the street inward, the best rate they can charge the Mach-E from 20% to 100% is 100 hours (maybe they should've done a little more homework).

Just so we all know what we're getting ourselves into, and how long it could actually take.
Hank is Here AUG 01, 04:33 PM
I also think the complete takeover of EV's is overblown. However in my opinion EV's will be widely adopted along with wider use of hybrid/plug-in hybrid vehicles. EV's are not a one size fits all, rather they are a "one size can fits most".

What will win, or should win, is the vehicle powertrain that meets the users needs/requirements.

Honestly the government/EPA/CAFE rules are severely handicapping "traditional" auto makers. With CAFE rules for light trucks using a combination of wheelbase (length and width) to develop a MGP rating for the vehicle to meet, forces automakers to build bloated SUV's and pickups to no get fines. This is my no one makes a small truck (S10/ranger, etc) with a regular cab and short bed for a DYI homeowner.

It seems to me that all automakers build cars to beat CAFE standards, and cars that I as a consumer want. Call me crazy I would rather than a small V6 instead of a turbo four cylinder...but there are VERY few V6 cars left on the market (if any).
mmeyer86gt/gtp AUG 01, 04:37 PM
I unfortunately live in California. My first car is a fiero still own it now. Im 44. If i plan on bringing the fiero to California from illinois it will need to pass smog something it has really never done since it was built. Parts can be found but most are nonexistent. So looking at what to do. i could swap it to a newer motor. I have done this on other fieros a 3800, 350, NorthStar, even lt1. All are fun to drive but i don't really want to be in a situation where in the next 10 years in California gas could be $10 a gallon. My fiero is a fun car and i enjoy it. So, the only options are really electric or hydrogen. There are no conversions yet anywhere for the hydrogen power plant. And i feel it would be 80-100k to make that a reality. It's just not feasible. So, its electric. I am afraid with electric that i will need to redo the conversion about every 10 or so years due to needing replacement batteries or a component that i have is nonexistent from any supplier. Everyone has gone to unit level replacement of parts and not down to the components. There is a documentary on the tesla roaster that is very interesting to what auto makers are doing to older version of the cars. They are not supporting it. So when all the gen 1/2/3 tesla or other manufacturers parts are over 10 years old they dont have to support it. So then the entire power plant becomes a throw away again. I dont know what to do. I enjoy the car but have reservations to put 30-40k into a car with a monetary value of 10k. (1986 black automatic gt) a run of the mill non special fiero. i just dont really know.
Jake_Dragon AUG 01, 05:01 PM
Ford announced that 2024 will be the last production year of the Mustang with a V8 engine.
End of times.

I also live in an older house that will need a lot of work before it will support an electric car. For that matter even replacing the gas appliances is going to be expensive.

On to EVs, wasn't the idea behind the hydrogen car, hydrogen would be used to make electricity and power an electrical motor.
Upside they only take a little longer to fuel then a gas car. I have not heard much more about them.
Does the book discuss hydrogen fuel cells?
Patrick AUG 01, 05:53 PM

quote
Originally posted by mmeyer86gt/gtp:

i don't really want to be in a situation where in the next 10 years in California gas could be $10 a gallon.



Be grateful you don't live in Hong Kong where gas is already over $11 a gallon!
cvxjet AUG 01, 06:29 PM
I really liked the GM Mild-hybrid trucks they built approx' decade ago; V8 with a combo Starter/generator/flywheel- but eliminating the individual parts.

What I think would work well for a hybrid system is a 2 valve PR V8 approx' 4 liter, with cylinder deactivation, then the combo starter/alt/flywheel setup with braking regen....The small V8 would run smoothly on 4 cylinders, would generate approx' 280 hp (And 300 torque) and with regen-braking would get good MPG around town.

I could see a medium-size truck getting 30+ on the highway, and 25 around town.

(Note- I know a lot of people will not believe this, but 2-valve PR engines actually burn fuel more efficiently than 4 valve zinger engines...Those engines make more HP per STATIC displacement. Think of a 6L engine turning 3000 rpm vs a 3L engine turning 6000...They are (Basically) processing the same amount of air/fuel)

[This message has been edited by cvxjet (edited 08-01-2023).]

MidEngineManiac AUG 01, 07:25 PM
I've been playing around with EV for a couple years now. Motorcycle, scooter, ebike mostly.

They are fie for what they are, but the #1 limitation to ANY of them, from trucks on down is range. Some of that is temperature related. Batteries are fin in moderate temps, but extreme heat or cold flatten the output drastically.

The only viable solution I can see to that problem is to carry/tow a generator either to run the motor, or on-the-fly mobile recharging.

<edit>

Oh, and as I have learned the hard way. Building an electric motorcycle out of a bicycle frame and parts really isnt that bright an idea. Bike stuff was never designed or engineered for the weights and speeds involved. Yes it can be done, yes it goes fast, but if you think a Fiero can be a maintenance nightmare, try one of those. . If you are gonna do it, start with a motorcycle frame and wheels.

[This message has been edited by MidEngineManiac (edited 08-01-2023).]

TheDigitalAlchemist AUG 01, 11:52 PM
How many EVs do you come across on your typical day? We started casually counting, and its around 20%. which is kinda mind-blowin'. 1 out of 5. At the local mall, it was 1 out of 10.
TheDigitalAlchemist AUG 01, 11:56 PM
Thought EVs would mean less maintenance... but it sounds like they will just be doin' the same type of stuff...
theogre AUG 02, 11:05 AM

quote
Originally posted by Hank is Here:
EV's are not a one size fits all, rather they are a "one size can fits most".

No... they are a "one size can fits very few." Many buyers only find out they don't fit their needs After buying and now stuck because of finance and tax reasons.

While Fleet Operations can and have use EV and more because all location @ end of day is same place so charging or fill w/ "odd fuel" is not a problem. Local Power Co had CNG vehicles Decades ago exactly because of that and connected to high pressure pump overnight so Vehicle tank and other parts didn't get hot as pump compresses Nat Gas. Plus they know who drives how much to assign the vehicles so doesn't drive "out of gas" very often costing recover of that vehicle.

Most can't use Home Charging, Level 1 plugin to "standard" 120v/240v outlet depending on country, Level 2 240v to 50a, or both for many reasons like...
Most Rental homes.
Most require street parking only.

Many "public" chargers are often constantly broken or wrong type for vehicle because US allows Tesla Only Chargers etc.
Outside of "cities," many areas will never get "public" chargers build for same reason can't get Cable/Fiber wide band Internet even when the Fed's push companies to build more and jack prices for that fee.