Here ya go, Ryan. The OAA CPC (Climate Prediction Center) and UK Met Office, have been predicting mild winters for the past 2 years. They have been completely, totally, SPECTACULARLY WRONG, 2 years running.
Looking at the results, it appears that the CPC forecast map was approximately inverted from what has actually occurred. The near record cold air which has been sitting over Alaska, is now pouring into the upper midwest. As of this morning, the temperature in International Falls, Minnesota is -22F, and historical cold is forecast for the coming weeks across most of the midwest and eastern US.
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Their scorecard is doing equally well, with the UK having it’s coldest winter in decades, as reported by the BBC.
Originally posted by fierobear: If this were the only story about record cold, then you might be right. But it isn't. Do I need to post *every* account of record cold, when we're supposed to be past some mythical "tipping point" of warming?
More precipitation is an indicator of warming. So yeah, it's colder everywhere. I guess these places didn't get that memo.
From WMO: In January, 1.3 million square kilometres (km2) in 15 provinces in southern China were covered by snow and experienced persistent low temperature and icing. This weather affected the daily life of millions of people who suffered from disruptions of transport, energy supply and power transmission, as well as damage to agriculture.
In Canada, several all-time snowfall records were set during winter reaching more than 550 centimetres (cm) in many locations, including Quebec City. The accumulation of snow was heavy enough to cause numerous roofs to collapse, killing at least four people. In Toronto, the 2007/2008 winter was the third snowiest on record in the 70 year of snow measurement records. At the end of January, Prince Edward Island was struck by one of the worst ice storms in decades. Nearly 95 per cent of the province lost power for a time.
In the United States of America, heavy April rainfall combined with previously saturated ground and snowmelt resulted in widespread major flooding that affected Missouri and southern Indiana. During the month of June, daily precipitation records were broken in many parts of Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Missouri. Also, this year was one of the top 10 years for tornado-related fatalities (123 total) since reliable records began in 1953. According to statistics, from January to August, 1 489 tornadoes were recorded, marking a record since 1953.
In Germany, between May and September, a large number of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain, tornadoes and hail storms were observed, causing some casualties and significant damages.
Sub-Saharan Africa, including West and East Africa, was affected by heavy rains, which caused the worst-ever recorded flooding in Zimbabwe and affected more than 300 000 people in West Africa during the monsoon season.
In northern Africa, heavy and extended rainfall during the period of September to November affected Algeria and Morocco, causing important infrastructure damage and several casualties in many cities and villages. Extreme rainfall intensities were recorded in northern provinces of Morocco with up to 200 millimetres (mm) of rainfall in less than six hours. Within the same climate anomaly context and period, intense rainfall was also recorded in south-western Europe. In Valencia, Spain, a total rainfall of 390 mm was recorded in 24 hours, of which 144 mm were recorded in less than one hour. In France, heavy and intense rains affected several locations from 31 October to 2 November. In three days, total rainfall reached 500 mm in some locations, which caused severe flooding and flash floods particularly in central and east-central parts of the country.
Several major rain events affected eastern Australia in January and February, causing significant flooding, particularly in Queensland. In November, widespread heavy rains occurred across most of the continent, ending an extremely dry period in central Australia. Associated severe thunderstorms caused damage from winds, hail and flash floods in many places.
In southern Asia, including India, Pakistan and Vietnam, heavy monsoon rains and torrential downpours produced flash floods, killing more than 2 600 people, and displacing 10 million people in India.
In western Colombia, continuous above-normal rainfall resulted in severe flooding that affected at least half a million people and caused extensive damage and landslides during the second half of the year.
In Southern Brazil, heavy rainfall affected Santa Catarina State from 22 to 24 November causing severe flooding and deadly mudslides, which affected 1.5 million people and resulted in 120 casualties and left 69,000 people homeless.
Yup rain fall totally trumps actual recorded temperatures. Just forget that record cold winters have been happening the last few winters because its wetter so that means its actually warmer. The thermometer is a lie!
GLENN: Let me tell you something. For those of you who think climate change is real and manmade, you should know this, that -- I mean, you don't have to be a socialist, I guess, to believe in global warming. It's just that almost everyone who does believe in global warming is a socialist. I mean, believes in manmade global warming that now can be fixed and reversed or whatever. And we've got the tools to fix it. Almost everybody who says, "I've got a plan to fix it" is a socialist. And let me just give you this quote. This is from An Inconvenient Book: Kyoto is -- and I'm quoting -- the first component of an authentic global governance, end quote. Jacques Chirac, 2000. It is a global governance idea. I read this weekend about a new green deal that the UN is starting to push, that there needs to be a new deal but it needs to be based on green. And guess who would go ahead and implement that for us. Isn't that great? We could take all of the money that we're spending on the bailouts -- this is really the idea -- take all the money that we're spending on the bailouts and put it into a commission to be able to have a global green society that we could have a revolutionary new government. Scary? Scare you yet? Huh? A revolutionary government, a world body that would concentrate on bringing the world together through clean energy. Wouldn't that be fantastic?
Well, the new global warming czar listed as one of the 14 leaders of a socialist group commissioned for a sustainable world society. Socialists International, an umbrella group for many of the world's social Democratic parties such as the Labor Party over in Great Britain, says it supports socialism and is highly critical of U.S. policies. The group's commission for a sustainable world society, the organization's action arm on climate change, has developed -- says the developed world must reduce its consumption and commit to a binding and punitive limit on greenhouse gas emissions. Mmm-hmmm. Mr. Obama who said that action on climate change would be a priority tapped Mrs. Browner for her new position last month as the White House coordinator of climate and energy policies. This appointment does not need Senate confirmation. She was tapped by the Obama administration. She's been on the board of directors for the National Audubon Society, the League of Conservation Voters and the Center For American Progress. She was also former vice president Al Gore's Alliance For Climate Protection committee member as well. Her name has now been removed from the Gore organization's website. The Socialist International website did not have a copy of her June 30th speech but the agenda for the meeting had her scheduled to speak as part of a panel on how do we strengthen the multilateral architecture for sustainable futures. So in other words, how do we knit ourselves together as a globe?
Also on the panel was Sergey Mironov, speaker for Russian legislature's upper chamber and close ally of Vladimir Putin, Zhang Zhijun, vice minister of the International Department of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee; Jesús Caldera -- it may actually be Jesus here. I'm not sure -- the former minister of Employment and Social Affairs for the Spanish Socialist Workers Party. That's who she was speaking with. Socialist International bills itself as the world body of Democratic Socialist movements. Its members range from Israel's Labor Party to France's socialist party to those who won the Angolan civil war with the aid of Soviet and Cuban troops. The organization distinguishes itself from violent or revolutionary communist parties. However, some such group, Chinese Communist Party have been invited to its events and guest organizations. The Democratic Socialists of America, not the Democratic party, is listed as the group's U.S. representative. She is also listed as an individual member of the Socialist International but not a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. In its meeting in 2008 in Santiago, Chile, Socialist International endorsed global governance -- that's a quote -- as the solution to the world's problems of climate change and peace. It's working out real well in the Middle East now that we have the blue helmets involved.
Socialist International regularly blasts the construction of fencing along the U.S./Mexico border. The fence was approved in congress with Mr. Obama's vote in the Senate.
You want to know what's coming? All you have to do is, all you have to do is watch the news that isn't being reported in the mainstream media. You know and I know that green is going to play a very large role. And they are going to be able to get green because people like me will tell you, "You know what? Here's the thing, guys. We're not putting any of this money into anything sustainable. We're not putting this money, this bailout money, this $1.3 trillion in stimulus into new energy. We need to take and build some real, real future infrastructure. What we were doing during World War II was building a nuclear bomb. We were building jet engines for the first time. We had something to move into the private sector after the war. Now what are we doing? And so people will say, "Well, wait a minute, hang on. Obama, they are trying to work on new energy." Yeah, but are you doing it with a global framework? See, the only reason I want to invest in green energy, I'll invest in something new but I'll let the private sector do it. The only way I want to do it is if we in the end can be able to have this technology and we can sell it to the rest of the world, pay ourselves out of this debt. But I don't think that's going to happen.
There's one more story here I want to share with you before we move off of this. I read Pravda this weekend. Have you read Pravda, I mean lately? I know, you instead just -- I try to cut down on paper. So I just read the New York Times. Same thing, I know. Here are the headlines on Pravda: Will Obama give in to reparations. Headline number two: Obama prefers to guide his political stars himself, just like Abraham Lincoln. Next story: Sanctimonious hypocritical preaching by the imperials. It's become rather common yearly and sometimes even monthly occurrence in the imperial elites of America as they gallop in on their white horses and read the riot act to the rest of the world, sometimes even to the EU on how to be a good republic. That is rather humorous as far as republics go because the U.S. is definitely a failed republic. Then the next story: The beginning of hope. Obama's election may lend sucker to those who argue that the laws and policies designed to remedy racial discrimination by promoting opportunity and diversity are no longer necessary. Is it the beginning of hope in America? Then: Russian politicians being cautiously optimistic about the new American phenomena, Barack Obama. I love this story: A change for the better. Only Satan could have been worse than the Bush administration. Next story: Eight years of hell are over. Next story: The American election system. And it talks about how the voters in America are completely uninformed and that the systems don't work.
The evil empire, if you will, is back. The Russians are looking to be the great global power again. Whether you like the fact or not, the Cold War is started again, the Cold War has started again and this one may not be just a Cold War because they need the price of oil to go up. Things and events are going to happen to be able to spike that price of oil because they need it. There's -- I just believe that there is, with the green New Deal being proposed now by the UN, with what happened last week with Merkel and Tony Blair and Sarkozy saying that capitalism as we know it is dead and needs to be revamped, in this new capitalism there is a place at the table for the state? That is called fascism. Capitalism is just a vehicle, but when you introduce the state into it, it's fascism. And unless we educate ourselves, unless we really know what's going on, we will have neighbors and friends. And that's why you have to wake people up. Your neighbors and friends will say, "Oh, my gosh, yeah, but we're in so much trouble, we've got to do this." The groundwork is being laid right now by people who -- do you trust the new global climate czar of the Barack Obama administration, somebody who's a member of the socialist party, somebody who likes global governance? Is that who we have become? That's why you need to wake your friends up now because in time the truest thing that was spoken on the campaign trail I think came out of the mouth of Joe Biden and that is, there will be a global event in the first six months. I don't know if it will be in the first six months, but it's coming. And he said, "We will do things that will seem wrong, but you have to trust us." No, I don't think we give our trust out like that. We gave our trust out on many other things like "You'll never violate the value of a dollar."
Basically, the same info but from the Washington Times...
Obama climate czar has socialist ties Group sees 'global governance' as solution Stephen Dinan (Contact) Originally published 05:45 a.m., January 12, 2009, updated 05:45 a.m., January 12, 2009
Until last week, Carol M. Browner, President-elect Barack Obama's pick as global warming czar, was listed as one of 14 leaders of a socialist group's Commission for a Sustainable World Society, which calls for "global governance" and says rich countries must shrink their economies to address climate change.
By Thursday, Mrs. Browner's name and biography had been removed from Socialist International's Web page, though a photo of her speaking June 30 to the group's congress in Greece was still available.
Socialist International, an umbrella group for many of the world's social democratic political parties such as Britain's Labor Party, says it supports socialism and is harshly critical of U.S. policies.
The group's Commission for a Sustainable World Society, the organization's action arm on climate change, says the developed world must reduce consumption and commit to binding and punitive limits on greenhouse gas emissions.
Mr. Obama, who has said action on climate change would be a priority in his administration, tapped Mrs. Browner last month to fill a new position as White House coordinator of climate and energy policies. The appointment does not need Senate confirmation.
Mr. Obama's transition team said Mrs. Browner's membership in the organization is not a problem and that it brings experience in U.S. policymaking to her new role.
"The Commission for a Sustainable World Society includes world leaders from a variety of political parties, including British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who succeeded Tony Blair, in serving as vice president of the convening organization," Obama transition spokesman Nick Shapiro said.
"Carol Browner was chosen to help the president-elect coordinate energy and climate policy because she understands that our efforts to create jobs, achieve energy security and combat climate change demand integration among different agencies; cooperation between federal, state and local governments; and partnership with the private sector," Mr. Shapiro said in an e-mail.
Mrs. Browner ran the Environmental Protection Agency under President Clinton. Until she was tapped for the Obama administration, she was on the board of directors for the National Audubon Society, the League of Conservation Voters, the Center for American Progress and former Vice President Al Gore's Alliance for Climate Protection.
Her name has been removed from the Gore organization's Web site list of directors, and the Audubon Society issued a press release about her departure from that organization.
For more than 20 years, we have been hearing doomsday predictions about global warming's effects on Kansas and across the world. Locally, during the hot Kansas summer of 2006, forecasts were issued and media articles written tying that hot, dry weather to global warming, and forecasting more extreme heat in the future.
According to one scientist with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global warming in 2006 was already "kicking the heat up a notch."
But the weather has refused to cooperate with those forecasts.
More drought? The reality: 2007 and 2008 were the two wettest years in the history of Wichita. No area of Kansas is experiencing drought at the present time, in spite of all that hand-wringing just two years ago.
Extreme heat? The reality: The past two years, combined, had 21 fewer days than average with 90-degree or higher temperatures. Since 1990, there has been a downward trend in 100-degree or warmer temperatures in Wichita.
It isn't just Kansas. In spite of the highest concentrations of carbon dioxide in the history of civilization, world temperatures have failed to warm the past 10 years. Ocean heat content is falling. World ice concentrations (Arctic and Antarctic combined) are higher than normal.
The 2001 forecasts by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (cited by Al Gore) have failed to capture the recent cooling, as the above graph indicates, suggesting that the carbon dioxide-atmosphere connection is more complex than some initially believed. A small but growing number of scientists are becoming concerned about global cooling due to the current unusually low solar activity and other geophysical factors.
The fact is that the solar-land-ocean-atmosphere system is incredibly complex, and meteorologists have no consistent skill at forecasting its behavior a year into the future, let alone decades hence.
I don't know what 2009's or 2029's weather might bring, nor does anyone else.
The sciences of meteorology and climatology still have a lot of learning to do.
My personal conclusion: The science is definitely not settled.
Mike Smith is a certified consulting meteorologist and CEO of WeatherData Services of Wichita.
Don't worry about global cooling. Obama's inauguration, the largest and most costly ever, will be "green". Invitations are on recycled paper, "plasticwear" is actually made of biodegradable vegetable starches, and all the horse crap will be shipped to a farm and used as fertz. But you may ask yourself doesn't that fight "global warming" adding to the coming "global cooling"? Yes but its negligible to the staggering amount of extra CO2 that the buses and commercial jets will be spewing out. And then there is all the private jets famous people will be coming in on. Lets not forget the traffic jams in and around DC from the closed bridges and roads because grid lock is good for CO2 and thus curing "global cooling".
Kind of ironic that Obabas ceremony is going to have everyone freezing to death. Im still waiting for that global warming thing to get started here...been coldest in a decade here for past few weeks.
ryan.hess, please explain the connection between more precipitation and increasing temperatures. Increasing heat and increasing drought, which is what has been predicted, don't line up with flooding in the US the last two springs.
The colder the air is, the less moisture it can hold. It's why you can see your breath when it's cold enough. The water content in your breath exceeds the amount of water the cold air can hold and it condenses and forms water droplets - a mini cloud.
Conversely, the warmer the air is, the more moisture it can hold. In the atmosphere, as it warms, the water cycle will pick up more moisture off the oceans and dump it inland as it cools. The water cycle is kind of like a bucket brigade taking ocean evaporation to the land. Increasing atmospheric temperatures is like giving them bigger buckets.
But what Ryan won't tell you is that, if global warming happens as they say, there will be LESS of a temperature difference around the world. It is the difference in temperature that drives most weather processes. So the idea that weather will get worse is in direct opposition to the principles that drive weather patterns in the first place.
Anti Global Warming Zealot Rule #1. If it is cold outside, this is proof that Global Warming doesn't exist.
I've seen this play out a thousand times just on here...
How about phyisics law #1...where you can't have additional heat AND lower temperatures at the same time?
The basic underlying theory of global warming is that CO2 will cause more heat to be trapped, possibly cause "positive feedbacks" that cause other things (like water vapor) to trap more heat, and you have a "runaway greenhouse effect". First of all, that's not happening. It hasn't happened for 10 years. Second, if warming was true, the additional heat would LESSEN the amount of cold weather. There is NO WAY an enhanced greenhouse effect can cause warming and cooling at the same time. To suggest it can is not only asinine, it's completely unscientific.
Anti Global Warming Zealot Rule #1. If it is cold outside, this is proof that Global Warming doesn't exist.
I've seen this play out a thousand times just on here...
I though the proof was the lack of , you know actual warming. In fact wouldn't a few straight years of less hot days and record cold kinda, just maybe allude to there not being warming.
Originally posted by fierobear: How about phyisics law #1...where you can't have additional heat AND lower temperatures at the same time?
Where'd you graduate from college again? I need to make a mental note....
Yes, you can have additional energy (heat) and lower localized temperatures. Why do you think the jet stream dips down into the southern US? Energy is being transferred. This is basic thermodynamics. Two links for you:
this is one that i heard recently against global warming. ny1 ever heard of Wineland? discovered around 1000AD by the Vikings and it was, as the name implies, an area where they produced wine. there is a large amount of evidence it was in newfoundland, which is FAR too cold for vines to be growing present time. ill admit that it cant be proven completely, and the site im gonna post does say that, but they found a viking village there, and it was dated to the correct time period. unless they were causing global warming 1000 years ago, it doesnt work out. there are other historical documents talking about growing crops that require a higher average temperature at a city than is there presently. its a cycle thats been running for a while, and is a lot like sunspots in my opinion, just over a longer time period, with extreme highs and lows. as was mentioned first page, Mt Everest explosion pumped out more CO2 and ash than has been put out by industrialization over 100 years in under 24hrs. if we were gonna do anything that could affect global temperatures wed hav 2 work our hardest to match that kind of a feat. u can call this an isolated occurance, but my bet is that an eruption like that happens more often than every century. another peice that i love is that the highest producer of CO2 for any continent is Africa. thats right, the one continent that is made up of 3rd world countries. apparently a billion campfires is worse than a hundred thousand coal plants. also, to the bit on the first page (all that i read, srry if this has all been covered) about the only "pro" global warming ppl making over 50k per year, im an unemployed 16yr old, and my dads making 40k tops. we r both "pro" global warming. iv looked at the evidence for and against it and decided that global warming cant possibly b caused by humans. as for the socialism group, its obvious that socialism does work, after all, it worked out perfectly in the USSR right? and China has just proved u right by the fact that their economy has skyrocketed since switching to capitalism. learn from the proof that history gives u, not from what theoretically works out. the closer you get to capitalism, the better ur economy goes.
Where'd you graduate from college again? I need to make a mental note....
Yes, you can have additional energy (heat) and lower localized temperatures. Why do you think the jet stream dips down into the southern US? Energy is being transferred. This is basic thermodynamics. Two links for you:
There are three major problems with what is being said. 1. The severe weather of this spring across the Northern Hemisphere was caused by cooler weather not warmer. 2. The IPCC and the NOAA positions that severe weather will increase with global warming is scientifically wrong. 3. The records show current weather extremes are well within long term natural variability.
Almost all global severe weather occurs in the middle latitudes between approximately 30° and 65° of latitude. Cyclonic storms, blizzards, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are created where warm and cold air meets and that is most dramatic along what is generally known as the Polar Front. This world map of tornado zones illustrates the point.
[image]
Here is a simplified diagram of the division between the cold polar air and the warm tropical air.
[image]
Temperature contrast across the Polar Front is the greatest in a short distance in each hemisphere. This creates the strongest winds as illustrated by the location of the Jet Stream (more correctly called the Circumpolar Vortex) above the surface. It also means the formation of swirling low pressure systems or cyclones that in winter are blizzards. As the cold air advances it pushes up unstable bubbles of warm air to create heavy rain from large clouds. With enough force these can develop in to severe thunderstorms (cumulonimbus) and under certain conditions trigger tornadoes. These conditions occur most frequently across the central US in what is colloquially known as Tornado Alley.
[image]
1. Frequency and intensity of most severe weather is a direct function of the temperature contrast across the Polar Front. This spring the cold air stayed further south with the colder temperatures with the resulting severe weather and flooding across the central US.
2. IPCC Reports claim increased CO2 levels will make the Polar air warm more than the tropical air. If true, this will decrease the temperature contrast across the Front resulting in fewer storms and less severe weather.
3. The graph from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows that severe tornadoes were higher in the period from 1950 to 1975. Global temperatures were falling during that time. Since then frequency has decreased as the world warmed to 2000. Since then the world has cooled slightly and the pattern shows a slight increase in severe tornadoes.
[image]
This trend of severe weather is most likely to increase as the Earth continues to cool. Proponents of human caused climate change will claim it proves them right. They will continue their practice of claiming natural events as unnatural. Unless people understand the basic science they will continue the fraud and pressure politicians into even more damaging energy and environmental policies.
[This message has been edited by fierobear (edited 01-18-2009).]
This trend of severe weather is most likely to increase as the Earth continues to cool. Proponents of human caused climate change will claim it proves them right. They will continue their practice of claiming natural events as unnatural.
That's exactly what I referred to in Global Warming Zealot Rule #1 . If a climate or weather event is bad - it's due to Global Warming. The inference is that there are NO benefits to Global Warming.
Hmmm.... most of Canada and northern U.S. would be under 2 miles of ice if not for the warming that started 5000 years ago. We wouldn't be here as the world population would be half what it is today.
Originally posted by fierobear: But could you point to the equation and accompanying text that explains where I'm wrong?
That would be link #2.
"If we look at the meaning of these two terms, we see that, if global warming should continue, the decrease in Entropy0 would mean more free energy to drive the weather; the increase in Entropy1 would mean a harder time predicting it."
Meaning: Stronger storm systems and more variability. So you start to see things happening like arctic cold fronts dipping into mexico. Flooding in the midwest.(2008) 3" of snow in Las Vegas...
"If we look at the meaning of these two terms, we see that, if global warming should continue, the decrease in Entropy0 would mean more free energy to drive the weather; the increase in Entropy1 would mean a harder time predicting it."
Meaning: Stronger storm systems and more variability. So you start to see things happening like arctic cold fronts dipping into mexico. Flooding in the midwest.(2008) 3" of snow in Las Vegas...
It would appear that this guy has it 180 degrees wrong. Read what I posted from Tim Ball. That is what is happening NOW, with a time of COOLER temperatures than projected from global warming. Those *cannot* be warming events because the temperatures are not above the historical mean (whatever that really is).
[This message has been edited by fierobear (edited 01-18-2009).]
It would appear that this guy has it 180 degrees wrong. Read what I posted from Tim Ball. That is what is happening NOW, with a time of COOLER temperatures than projected from global warming. Those *cannot* be warming events because the temperatures are not above the historical mean (whatever that really is).
Have you posted any info on the abnormal ocean volcanic activity that is warming the ocean surface thus adding to the moisture in the atmosphere? This in one area the global warmist tend to ignore. What ever happened to the rain forest and the hole in the ozone issues that were supposed to kill half of the population by now? Have those issues been declared dead because there is more money to be made on something that no one will fully understand?
Have you posted any info on the abnormal ocean volcanic activity that is warming the ocean surface thus adding to the moisture in the atmosphere? This in one area the global warmist tend to ignore.
The only area I'd read about that showed a strong possibility of influence from volcanic heating was the Antarctic Peninsula, which is the only area of Antarctica that is showing warming. I'll dig up some stuff on that. I think I read something similar about Greenland and possibly the Arctic, but I'll have to look around to find it.
Bear, the Gorites have already said Ball is a crackpot. Talk about calling the kettle black. Ball is a professor and expert on the subject. Gore graduated high school. His college dont count, because he couldnt pass science classes If I saw Gore in person, Id want to punch him in the face. (but then you shouldnt hit handicapped persons)
Bear, the Gorites have already said Ball is a crackpot. Talk about calling the kettle black. Ball is a professor and expert on the subject. Gore graduated high school. His college dont count, because he couldnt pass science classes If I saw Gore in person, Id want to punch him in the face. (but then you shouldnt hit handicapped persons)
You'd be surprised (or maybe you wouldn't) that many of the rebuttals to skeptic's arguments are made up mostly of ad homenim attacks on the scientist, with little or no actual science being argued.
