Here is an article from Bloomberg News that is looking at trends with this virus. There is a lot of speculation about just where this infestation will go and where it will end up. Even among the medical community. As this article mentions there are now three new hotspots that might bare watching. South Korea, Italy and Iran. Of the three I would worry more about Iran, since they are the definition of autocratic. Iran also does not have a very good health care system either, but I am sure that with their dictatorship they can keep it out of the news for at least a while and if they think it is needed they can take extreme measures to quarantine large segments of their population.
This article also talks about and compares Covid-19 to SARS and MERS. Even though Covid-19 has a death rate much lower than either of the other two it is killing a lot more people.
Along with those items the article also talks about the spread of the virus and the mechanisms of the more lethal version of it.
So I think it is a good read to get a sense of what the medical community is thinking.
Shortly after the story broke that there was a case of corona virus at ASU, there were cries of racism as some of the "woke" students began to avoid anyone who looked Asian.
Of the three I would worry more about Iran, since they are the definition of autocratic. Iran also does not have a very good health care system either, but I am sure that with their dictatorship they can keep it out of the news for at least a while and if they think it is needed they can take extreme measures to quarantine large segments of their population. This article also talks about and compares Covid-19 to SARS and MERS. Even though Covid-19 has a death rate much lower than either of the other two it is killing a lot more people.
Along with those items the article also talks about the spread of the virus and the mechanisms of the more lethal version of it.
So I think it is a good read to get a sense of what the medical community is thinking.
I tend to take a longer/wider view of things, and would be more concerned about Italy. Iran is already pretty much closed off, and tho the potential of an increased # of infections within that nation is high, the potential for further spreading it across the globe in true cataclysmic pandemic fashion is higher in any European or North American country that has open borders. Altho it is not going to be possible (as we've seen) to completely keep it within any one nation or region, it will be much much worse when it gets a real foothold in an area in which people are free to travel to and from other regions in great numbers. Italy, on the southern edge of Europe and the Northern edge of the African continent fits that scenario to a Tee, as would any of the North American states and regions.
Shortly after the story broke that there was a case of corona virus at ASU, there were cries of racism as some of the "woke" students began to avoid anyone who looked Asian.
I guess they won't be partaking of Gen Tsao's Chicken over at the China Doll all-you-can-eat buffet?
Across the U.S., Chinese restaurants and businesses are reporting slumping sales due to stigma and fear surrounding the outbreak of a novel coronavirus which originated in Wuhan, China.
Debbie Chen, a restaurant owner in Houston, told USA Today that many businesses are down 50 to 75 percent from their regular traffic, depending on the day.
"There are false rumors going around on social media," Chen said. "There was one rumor talking about one of the local grocery stores, that they'd discovered [the virus] there and ... business went down almost 80 percent immediately."
China has confirmed 72,436 cases and around 1,868 deaths from the virus since the outbreak began late last year. In the U.S., there are approximately 15 confirmed cases of the deadly respiratory virus, according to The Associated Press, and almost all of those patients had personally visited China.
"If you listen to all the different news reports, people are scared," Chen said. "There may be some hints of xenophobia. ... But at the same time, I think that for some people, it might just be ignorance, fear, and there may be people putting things out without thinking about how it impacts working people."
Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) spoke with leaders in the Houston area along with public health officials to reassure patrons who might be avoiding these areas of town due to worries or concerns about coronavirus, according to USA Today.
"We must not stoke any looming fears or stigmas surrounding this public health issue," Green said in a statement, adding that there is no need for the people of Houston to avoid any normal business locations out of fear of the virus.
David Portalatin, the vice president and food industry adviser for the market research company NPD Group, said that the restaurant industry has not seen a significant impact or drop in customers since the outbreak of coronavirus began.
"I wouldn't be surprised if you're seeing some very isolated impacts," Portalatin said.
Steve Ip, a manager at a restaurant in Manhattan's Chinatown, said business has dropped 30 to 40 percent since reports of the outbreak, saying that the decline is felt "especially at lunchtime.
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 02-23-2020).]
I beg to differ. Right on your northern border is a country importing anything and everything from the Middle East as fast as Justine can. If it's in that region then the risk here is high to high.
Speaking with a person directly caring for the four sick here in Spokane County. The unit responding to this is well trained, and happy. Pay is amazing, and the environment is calm. They can handle up to a dozen patients in quarantine, but only 8 of the coronavirus due to it's unknowns. Basically all is going well.
But, there is a finite amount of resources available to those in need. 10 facilities like this are around the United States with varying degrees of available care. All able to handle coronavirus, but all with different standing rules. There is worry, of course, that a sudden increase in admissions would overwhelm the staff that is trained for this, and leave other parts of the hospital without proper staffing. The Dr.s and caregivers have been pulled from their perspective assignments to this one, leaving an acceptable gap in the workforce. There are only so many people trained for this.
I tend to take a longer/wider view of things, and would be more concerned about Italy. Iran is already pretty much closed off, and tho the potential of an increased # of infections within that nation is high, the potential for further spreading it across the globe in true cataclysmic pandemic fashion is higher in any European or North American country that has open borders. Altho it is not going to be possible (as we've seen) to completely keep it within any one nation or region, it will be much much worse when it gets a real foothold in an area in which people are free to travel to and from other regions in great numbers. Italy, on the southern edge of Europe and the Northern edge of the African continent fits that scenario to a Tee, as would any of the North American states and regions.
I think all of these new hotspots are problematic. Why? Because it highlights how fast it can spread.
You also didn't comment on South Korea. The rate of new infection is very disturbing. And South Korea is a modern economy with lots of world travelers. I think for me personally, I will stay away from the Chicago main office of the South Korean company I deal with. I have medical reasons to stay as far away as possible. I am over 70 and have a few health issues and my immune system is compromised because of those health issues. I really dont think it will be a huge problem this year for us in the US, but unless someone comes up with a vaccine next year could be as bad as 1918.
I suggest we quarantine San Francisco (just for general purposes). Only, do it after Speaker Pelosi is within it's boundaries.
Rams
I think you have a sound plan. As I mentioned in another thread, it is becoming increasingly evident that far too many Americans have already died from exposure to Democrats.
I didn't comment on S. Korea because I speak with people in S. Korea almost every night. They are not very concerned about it. S. Korea is a peninsula, bounded on land only by the hermit kingdom of N. Korea. It should be pretty easy to quarantine the whole country...much much easier than Italy or Iran. Italy has open borders with Slovena, Frawnce, Switzerland and Austria and all of those 5 countries are vacation destinations for many more millions than S. Korea is.
On a side note, I spent the better part of today helping a neighbor doctor his calf herd. He's had a momma cow and 2 calves mysteriously die in the last 2 weeks. I took this picture of one that had died very early this morning before daylight. Bled to death out it's butthole, vulva, and eyes. It had given birth less than 2 months ago, calf was doing well. Among the medicines and vaccines we administered was:
Farmlife isn't always easy or pleasant
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 02-23-2020).]
Smaller number of new cases in China than in quite a while on the 23rd. The figures didn't seem to change at the normal time last night either (7:00 pm Eastern Standard Time). And as of right now the John Hopkins website with the interactive graphicals on this virus is having problems, so it makes it hard to keep track.
But, South Korea jumped about another 200 cases in one day, again.
Iran, with from 50 total cases to 50 deaths in one day, with the deaths going back to the beginning of February.
And Italy had a pretty large jump too.
If these cases keep up this trend it will mean the virus has jumped the confines of China. Up until a couple of days ago it was mostly confined in China. And China had very strict quarantines going on with millions under quarantine of some type. There were a few isolated incidents, like the cruise ship in Japan, but they were tightly confined also.
So many questions
Will the world be able to hold off this virus until spring?
Will the arrival of spring bring relief like it does for the cousins of this corona virus?
Will the medical profession be able to come up with a viable vaccine soon? Or at least by next fall or early winter.
Will Italy, Iran and South Korea be able to put up an effective barrier to the spread of this virus?
When will this have a large effect on the world's economy.
It's already having an effect on the global economy..just not very much on the consumer end yet. It works both ways tho. It's helping to keep global gasoline prices down, but also is causing layoffs all over the upstream side of O&G. Causing big swings in the weekly S&P 500. (3M tho, is NOT a 'buy'..one of the worst performing stocks on the S&P) Manufacturing around the world is running a shortage of certain raw materials and parts for final assembly. Big layoffs have not hit N. America yet, but they may if the virus remains active in China for much longer.
It's already having an effect on the global economy..just not very much on the consumer end yet. It works both ways tho. It's helping to keep global gasoline prices down, but also is causing layoffs all over the upstream side of O&G. Causing big swings in the weekly S&P 500. (3M tho, is NOT a 'buy'..one of the worst performing stocks on the S&P) Manufacturing around the world is running a shortage of certain raw materials and parts for final assembly. Big layoffs have not hit N. America yet, but they may if the virus remains active in China for much longer.
Just one side note on 3M. The little foam company I worked for that made the nose pad foam for the N-95 masks was for 3M. I talked to someone there and there is now another plant making some of the foam for these masks. The one I worked at is working 24/7 now and that should be about 2 shipments a week of 160 rolls of 1 inch wide foam 0.100 inch thick and 3500 meters long. That is a lot of masks and still the reports are that there are shortages of masks. This is definitely the worst outbreak since the Spanish Flu, and hopefully it won't reach those proportions.
Even though the Covid-19 Flu is less deadly than others like SARS per number of cases, it has turned out to cause more deaths. That is because of the long incubation period, the ability to transmit the disease before you even know you have it and even the low morbidity plays a role, because if a large number of people died from it right away they wouldn't be able to transmit the virus to others as effectively.
One other note: The John Hopkins website is still not functioning properly. I just tried again and it crashed completely. Interesting!
I just found a different site: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ I don't know how good it is yet or how well it is documented. But, with just a cursory look at it the curve for deaths is showing a definite exponential curve upwards.
I am liking the new website I linked to above. It has a lot of information all there in a logical order.
As I went through the information I noted something that I was wondering about anyway. The number of deaths of those who were considered serious as a percentage. Since there are a lot of different levels you can get this virus and its effects, the actual death rate is very hard to figure. But, one thing that stuck out to me was that once a person was bad enough to be hospitalized their rate of death went up significantly. If you are hospitalized and considered seriously infected the death rate goes up to around 15%. And it takes a while for the virus to work on you even if you have effective treatment. So the mean time to death for those that will die, is about 14 days.
So combine all of that and do a little bit of figuring and you come up with some crazy statistics. Right now in China alone there are over 11,000 cases considered serious. I will let you do the math yourself if you are interested.
Ugg. You can get crazy with all of this information and then speculating on it.
But, one thing that stuck out to me was that once a person was bad enough to be hospitalized their rate of death went up significantly.
Pretty much holds true for all kinds of illnesses doesn't it? I know it does for measles, pneumonia and flu.
quote
the ability to transmit the disease before you even know you have it and even the low morbidity plays a role, because if a large number of people died from it right away they wouldn't be able to transmit the virus to others as effectively.
Did you really mean morbidity? Morbidity refers to how many people become infected. the rate of all or any specific disease within a population. Mortality rate refers to how many die.
I try not to drive myself insane over things I have no control over. If it gets me, it gets me. Not much I can do about it.
Running around worrying about every little thing is a sure ticket to the nuthouse. I saw enough of those melt-downs in the food industry. And one who did end up in a rubber room for 6 months.
No, no, no. They tossed me out in an hour. Docs ran screaming in terror, satan got religion, and the discharge papers said something about avoid at all costs.
All U.S. airline stocks were down more sharply than the broader market. The S&P 500 fell 2.6%.
Airline stocks fell Monday as fears about the spread of the coronavirus beyond China added to worries about travel demand and the broader economy, despite a drop in fuel prices.
American Airlines shares led the S&P 500 lower with an 9.8% slide in midday trading, hitting a more than four-month low. Delta Air Lines’ stock lost 7.2% to the lowest price in nearly four months, while United Airlines was off 4.3%.
All U.S. airline stocks were down more sharply than the broader market. The S&P 500 fell 2.6%.
Close to 80,000 cases of the virus, now known as COVID-19, have been reported along with at least 2,621 deaths. Cases outside of China, where most of the infections are located, have increased, with Italy reporting more than 220 and South Korea confirming more than 830.
Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade warned citizens not to travel to affected areas, helping drive down shares of European carriers. Budget airline easyJet lost more than 16% while rival Ryanair was down 12%. Deutsche Lufthansa fell 8.8%, British Airways’ parent, International Consolidated Airlines Group, was off 9% and Air France-KLM fell 8.4%.
More than 200,000 flights to, from and within China have already been canceled because of the virus, according to aviation consulting firm Cirium, and more disruptions are possible if the virus continues to spread.
Globally, the CV caused airline downturn is expected to cost around $29 billion in 2020.
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 02-24-2020).]
This, is how they believe the H5N1 flu got spread from China/Vietnam to points in Europe and the Mideast. Is this coronovirus also capable of being spread the same way? Don't know.
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 02-24-2020).]
Did you really mean morbidity? Morbidity refers to how many people become infected. the rate of all or any specific disease within a population. Mortality rate refers to how many die.
This, is how they believe the H5N1 flu got spread from China/Vietnam to points in Europe and the Mideast. Is this coronovirus also capable of being spread the same way? Don't know.
Who knows. So far I have not heard of it spreading by other vectors like birds. But, we humans can fly like the birds too. We just use planes. And we can go just about anywhere in the globe. And that shows up in how the infection is spread.
It's already having an effect on the global economy..just not very much on the consumer end yet. It works both ways tho. It's helping to keep global gasoline prices down, but also is causing layoffs all over the upstream side of O&G. Causing big swings in the weekly S&P 500. (3M tho, is NOT a 'buy'..one of the worst performing stocks on the S&P) Manufacturing around the world is running a shortage of certain raw materials and parts for final assembly. Big layoffs have not hit N. America yet, but they may if the virus remains active in China for much longer.
The US stock markets dropped drastically today. Will that continue or will it bounce back again? Up to this time it seems that the US stock market is pretty resilient.
That doesn't mean that we won't feel an economic pinch though. But, will our economic policies allow us to ride out this storm better than the rest of the world? I think it will. America is resilient and is not locked into one path to success.
The problem I am seeing with the spread is nobody really seems to know an accurate incubation period. I've read anywhere from a few days to 6 weeks.
I've read all kinds of conflicting stuff on asymptomatic cases too.
So combining all the stuff that nobody really knows (or isn't telling ) it's possible this thing started spreading around the holidays (and all that travel) via people who don't know they even have it, or passed it off as a cold or the sniffles.
I don't think anyone really can be considered outside of the possibility of coming in contact with someone who has the virus. Heck about a week ago I was at the huge Farm Show in Louisville KY. Could some of the people at the show have come from China? Probably, since there was all kinds of machinery from many different countries, including China.
Right now I am not too worried about the people in Detroit. I live in a fairly rural part of Michigan. Certainly not as isolated as maryjane, but small town USA at the least of it.
Globally, the CV caused airline downturn is expected to cost around $29 billion in 2020.
Read today that all the countries sharing borders with Italy have placed armed military and police at the crossings. Stock market here was down about 900 points all based on the effect CV is going to have on manufacturing and the big corporations. Until this virus is controlled, stocks will continue to fall. Just my opinion.
Might be a good time to move from the market to gold or silver....
Read today that all the countries sharing borders with Italy have placed armed military and police at the crossings. Stock market here was down about 900 points all based on the effect CV is going to have on manufacturing and the big corporations. Until this virus is controlled, stocks will continue to fall. Just my opinion.
Might be a good time to move from the market to gold or silver....
Rams
Simply going on the reactions of governments should be clue enough that we aren't getting near the truth on this.
We do have a very large military presence in South Korea that like any military base(s) people rotate world wide on a daily basis. I'm wondering if my youngest brother and his family are going to make their scheduled transfer back to the states mid march.
Wow, I just saw a live news cast of Dr. Marc Seigel on Fox News. He sounded like one of MEM's links. He talked to one of the heads of Homeland Security, and he would not rule out the idea that the virus came from that lab in China. He also said we will find a lot more people with the virus in the US.
He is usually cautioning people to not get too excited. But, here he was implying that this was going to be a huge problem in the US.
This was on Tucker Carlson. And so Tucker continued on with more heated rhetoric on this virus with more guests.
Not sure what to think. Is this just Fox News trying to up their ratings, or is this a serious attempt to cover a tough subject.
All anybody needs to do is look at the 1st hand reports and video from Wuhan then ask themselves is this a normal reaction to an outbreak of a virus.
When is the last time you ever heard of quarantine done by sealing people in the homes with plywood? Or hauling in portable incinerators to deal with the dead?
All anybody needs to do is look at the 1st hand reports and video from Wuhan then ask themselves is this a normal reaction to an outbreak of a virus.
When is the last time you ever heard of quarantine done by sealing people in the homes with plywood? Or hauling in portable incinerators to deal with the dead?
About never
Think about what you just typed MeM.
That's like saying 'When was the last time you ever heard of anyone taking a lot of precautions before a flight to land on the moon?" About never.
