Well, all of that sounds pretty bad Hudini. I'll keep you in my prayers. and hope you get home soon and stay here awhile nice and healthy while this thing runs it's course...
I am not ready to run screaming in the streets in despair, but there are some significant things reported today. 50 million people in quarenteen. 50 more deaths reported today. More cases of Corona than all cases of SARS. It certainly bears watching closely.
Can any of you imagine the US quarenteeing 50 million people? Just think about that. We are no where near as compliant, scared of the government or willing to trust the bureaucrats in government. How many would find a way to get out?
maryjane, I have to admit you are pretty isolated and I believe that maybe you among most of the rest of us might be able to weather this storm. You have cattle and I assume you have stocked up on stuff already and you have land with probably a garden or two.
Here is an article that gives some statistics that are fairly well up to date as of tonight, January 29th. But, the virus seems to be accelerating in its contagion. So at least for right now we are getting larger and larger numbers of patients and deaths. The CDC is having a special meeting tomorrow to decide whether to call this a world crisis or not.
The only good thing is that outside of China it doesn't seem to be taking hold. If that starts to happen hang on.
The Chinese coronavirus epidemic appears to be severe, but let's put this into some rational perspective:
The United States Center for Disease Control (CDC) estimates that, from October 1, 2019, through January 18, 2020, there have been: 15,000,000 – 21,000,000 flu illnesses
7,000,000 – 10,000,000 flu medical visits
140,000 – 250,000 flu hospitalizations
8,200 – 20,000 flu deaths
That's just here in the U.S. in THREE AND A HALF MONTHS
Notably, both the common influenza Type A and Type B are caused by various strains of the coronavirus.
The SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic almost 20 years ago was also caused by a strain of the coronavirus
The 1996 "bird flu" , Asian avian influenza, H5N1 virus was / is also a strain of the coronavirus.
..................................
The world didn't end. There were not millions of deaths and it wasn't a real life version of any "Andromeda Strain" like FICTION
[This message has been edited by randye (edited 01-30-2020).]
From what I read, it has been 9 days that we have known about it. It can take up to 14 days to show symptoms and it is possible to spread it before symptoms show.
If all that is true, expect the numbers to really jump over the next couple weeks.
I believe that is why they are treating it like more of a crisis then the numbers so far seem to justify.
According to one report on Drudge, almost another 2000 cases in China today and almost 50 more deaths in China too. And a man in Chicago has gotten this flue from his wife in a person to person manner. Still spiraling out of control in China. Most other countries are having no problems keeping the cases down. At least for now.
The early morning report is saying that already today there are another 2000 or so cases in China. And 43 new deaths, bringing the total deaths to 213.
It is hard to try to track numbers coming out of China, since as the day goes on there are more and more cases and more deaths too. So if you look at the figures from last night at 10:00 pm (which my last post did) and compare them to what is reported at 6:00 am it can be significantly different than later on in the day. Another thing to think about is that it takes around 5 to 10 days from infection to noticing the symptoms, which puts a lag in data flow. And the deaths do not come right away as soon as the patient shows signs of the disease. So it is very hard to get an idea of what the percentage of deaths will end up becoming. It could be that it would be less than a typical flue season or the death rate could be masked by the lag in time from infection to a resulting death. One thing I did see reported last night, is that in the last 9 days the number of cases had gone up by a factor of 10. That is one order of magnitude. So if that continues in less than 10 days China will be looking at 100,000 infections. And that is all dependent on how well the quarantine in China works to combat this flue.
I surely do hope that they can stop this exponential increase in cases with their unprecedented restrictions.
The one thing hopeful is that the extent of the spread of this virus is pretty much limited to China. At least for now.
The early morning report is saying that already today there are another 2000 or so cases in China. And 43 new deaths, bringing the total deaths to 213.
It is hard to try to track numbers coming out of China, since as the day goes on there are more and more cases and more deaths too. So if you look at the figures from last night at 10:00 pm (which my last post did) and compare them to what is reported at 6:00 am it can be significantly different than later on in the day. Another thing to think about is that it takes around 5 to 10 days from infection to noticing the symptoms, which puts a lag in data flow. And the deaths do not come right away as soon as the patient shows signs of the disease. So it is very hard to get an idea of what the percentage of deaths will end up becoming. It could be that it would be less than a typical flue season or the death rate could be masked by the lag in time from infection to a resulting death. One thing I did see reported last night, is that in the last 9 days the number of cases had gone up by a factor of 10. That is one order of magnitude. So if that continues in less than 10 days China will be looking at 100,000 infections. And that is all dependent on how well the quarantine in China works to combat this flue.
I surely do hope that they can stop this exponential increase in cases with their unprecedented restrictions.
The one thing hopeful is that the extent of the spread of this virus is pretty much limited to China. At least for now.
I don't think it was wise to fly Americans back, to a mil base in cali. and then only hold them for 3 days. I think this is going to be a big mistake.
Not saying it is true or not. But just throwing it out there, What if the Elite That see man made climate change as (in their mind) the biggest threat. And because they have failed at forcing everyone back to the stone age, they chose to cull the herd?
Here is an article outlining the problems with tracking this virus. I would also point out that this article has a nice graph in it to show how the suspected cases, monitoring cases, actual cases and deaths are tracking right now. But, it also talks about how hard it is to confirm how many actually have the disease.
It very well could be higher than reported this morning. every day it seems to get worse. I read earlier today that China doesn't have enough tests to go around and will soon run of the tests for the virus. Also, the first and second times that people are tested don't reveal the disease all of the time. So sometimes it takes a third test to verify that the person is free of this virus.
Its almost like a blackout on the webs tonight on the virus. No reports that I have seen on the number of cases or deaths. Either the media is not interested in pursuing this possible worldwide health problem or they are trying not to let us know how bad it is. Maybe we will have a report later tonight, but for the last few days I could get an update by this time of the night.
Here is an article that is disturbing. I don't know how true it is, so be aware of that.
"Crematorium workers in Wuhan claim bodies are being sent from hospitals without being added to the official record, DailyMail.com reported.
Orient says the first wave of cases must have occurred in December or earlier, because by Jan. 2, 41 cases admitted to hospital in Wuhan had a laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of coronavirus.
However, she points out, Wuhan "was not placed under quarantine until 5 million people had left to celebrate the New Year, carrying the virus all across China."
Mark, I would definitely take anything DailyMail and WND say with a very big grain of salt. It is nearly impossible even in non-crisis times to verify anything that happens in China, but I will take the "official Chinese" word over the tabloids any day...which admittedly doesn't give much of a plus to the official tally.
science is much less convinced the seafood market was the source of this virus. it had to be brought inTO the market from somewhere and they are also casting a lot of doubt regarding the animal host being a bat.
Mark, I would definitely take anything DailyMail and WND say with a very big grain of salt. It is nearly impossible even in non-crisis times to verify anything that happens in China, but I will take the "official Chinese" word over the tabloids any day...which admittedly doesn't give much of a plus to the official tally.
I don't take anything I find on the Internet too seriously unless it is confirmed by multiple sources and even then I am skeptical because there are so many varied interests that can skew things. 30 or 40 years ago most of us took what the main stream media said maybe not as gospel, but as reliable. But, that has changed. Now we find the old gray lady, the New York Times, to be very political. To the point of publishing anonymously sourced articles that hit their political enemies. And when the truth comes out they don't blush or even apologize. And believe me this virus is political or will be used as something of a political weapon.
The news reports I have seen this morning are reporting another increase of about 2000 people sick with this virus, mostly in China. That makes it about 12,000 cases so far. Maybe this is a good thing. For the last 3 or 4 days the count has gone up by about 2000 a day. While that is significant it is not an exponential increase. Maybe the quarantine measures are working. If so that would be great.
I don't take anything I find on the Internet too seriously unless it is confirmed by multiple sources and even then I am skeptical because there are so many varied interests that can skew things. 30 or 40 years ago most of us took what the main stream media said maybe not as gospel, but as reliable. But, that has changed. Now we find the old gray lady, the New York Times, to be very political. To the point of publishing anonymously sourced articles that hit their political enemies. And when the truth comes out they don't blush or even apologize. And believe me this virus is political or will be used as something of a political weapon.
Found this this morning from the BBC. "Estimates by the University of Hong Kong suggest the total number of cases could be far higher than official figures suggest. More than 75,000 people may have been infected in the city of Wuhan, which is at the epicentre of the outbreak, experts say."
So they, the BBC, is saying basically the same thing that some of the other sources I listed said. Most of these sources are getting their information for Hong Kong.
The Pentagon said the Department of Health and Human Services requested that the Defense Department provide several facilities capable of housing at least 250 people in individual rooms through February 29. The Pentagon said the locations selected to assist, if needed, are: the 168th Regiment, Regional Training Institute in Fort Carson, Colorado; the Travis Air Force Base in California; the Lackland Air Force Base in Texas; the Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in California.
"Under the request, DOD will only provide housing support, while HHS will be responsible for all care, transportation, and security of the evacuees. DOD personnel will not be directly in contact with the evacuees and evacuees will not have access to any base location other than their assigned housing," the Pentagon said in a statement.
"In accordance with (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) guidelines, all evacuees will be monitored for a period of 14 days. Should routine monitoring of the evacuees identify ill individuals, HHS has procedures in place to transport them to a local civilian hospital," the statement continued.
The news reports I have seen this morning are reporting another increase of about 2000 people sick with this virus, mostly in China. That makes it about 12,000 cases so far. Maybe this is a good thing. For the last 3 or 4 days the count has gone up by about 2000 a day. While that is significant it is not an exponential increase. Maybe the quarantine measures are working. If so that would be great.
I was just listening to the BBC and they calling 14,000 cases at the end of the day, with 304 deaths total. So maybe it is getting exponential. The next few days will give us a better perspective of whether the disease is still progressing linearly or if it is accelerating.
"Coronavirus: First death outside China reported in Philippines A man has died of the coronavirus in the Philippines in the virus's first confirmed fatality outside China. The patient was a 44-year-old Chinese man from Wuhan, in Hubei province, where the virus was first detected. He appeared to have been infected before arriving in the Philippines, the World Health Organization said.
The man travelled to the Philippines from Wuhan, via Hong Kong, with a 38-year-old Chinese woman who also tested positive for the virus last week, the Philippines Department of Health said. Officials said he was admitted to a hospital in the capital, Manila, and then developed severe pneumonia. Rabindra Abeyasinghe, the WHO representative to the Philippines, urged people to remain calm: "This is the first reported death outside China. However, we need to take into mind that this is not a locally acquired case. This patient came from the epicentre of this outbreak."
44 years old isn't what I would consider "elderly and sick" like I've heard most of the fatalities have been in China...
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 02-02-2020).]
"Coronavirus: First death outside China reported in Philippines A man has died of the coronavirus in the Philippines in the virus's first confirmed fatality outside China. The patient was a 44-year-old Chinese man from Wuhan, in Hubei province, where the virus was first detected. He appeared to have been infected before arriving in the Philippines, the World Health Organization said.
The man travelled to the Philippines from Wuhan, via Hong Kong, with a 38-year-old Chinese woman who also tested positive for the virus last week, the Philippines Department of Health said. Officials said he was admitted to a hospital in the capital, Manila, and then developed severe pneumonia. Rabindra Abeyasinghe, the WHO representative to the Philippines, urged people to remain calm: "This is the first reported death outside China. However, we need to take into mind that this is not a locally acquired case. This patient came from the epicentre of this outbreak."
44 years old isn't what I would consider "elderly and sick" like I've heard most of the fatalities have been in China...
Elderly and sick really depends on the individual. I've seen 25 and 30 year old in worse shape than some 90 or 100s the past few years.
"Coronavirus: First death outside China reported in Philippines A man has died of the coronavirus in the Philippines in the virus's first confirmed fatality outside China. The patient was a 44-year-old Chinese man from Wuhan, in Hubei province, where the virus was first detected. He appeared to have been infected before arriving in the Philippines, the World Health Organization said.
The man travelled to the Philippines from Wuhan, via Hong Kong, with a 38-year-old Chinese woman who also tested positive for the virus last week, the Philippines Department of Health said. Officials said he was admitted to a hospital in the capital, Manila, and then developed severe pneumonia. Rabindra Abeyasinghe, the WHO representative to the Philippines, urged people to remain calm: "This is the first reported death outside China. However, we need to take into mind that this is not a locally acquired case. This patient came from the epicentre of this outbreak."
44 years old isn't what I would consider "elderly and sick" like I've heard most of the fatalities have been in China...
That would be something significant. If you only have a few people sick with this disease they are going to get extra ordinary care. When the numbers keep getting higher and higher the hospitals will be overwhelmed and care goes down. Maybe even triage is going to happen where those considered too sick will get a type of hospice care. You can only have so much medical staff and equipment. I would have no clue where that point would be in China. It seems they can build a hospital in a week, but there is no way to train health workers that fast.
I saw an article on BBC today where they listed the number of cases confirmed and the deaths. But, they had another figure I think is important. That would be the total number who had it and are now out of the hospital. Only 450 or so made it out of the hospital so far. That is important because even if the patients dont die right away, they are still very sick and remain in the hospital.
R naught... Seasonal flu has a low R number (R1.3) but as Randy posted, infects millions each year... Let's look at the R numbers...
There are too many ways for it to be transmitted for any one preventative to be highly effective. Present in any liquid or aerosol from the body, as well as in the feces. It can remain viable on surfaces for several hours. They do not know for sure yet how long it stays virulent suspended in air.
They're trying to establish a good R0 number. (R zero or R-naught) That's a number given a pathogen or infection that shows what the approximate rate of infection is. Non-infectious is R naught. A slightly infectious disease has a desirable R0 # below 1. Polio, smallpox and rubella have R0 values in the 5 to 7 range; such values mean that, on average, one sick person would be likely to infect five to seven people who were not resistant to the virus, Common measles is among the highest with an R# of r12 to R18, because measles virus can stay suspended in the air for as much as 2 hours after being expelled from a contagious person's sneeze or cough.
What is the R number? It is indicative of how many people are getting infected from a single infected person. A person with measles can generally infect 12-18 other people. WHO currently places Coronavirus at R1.4 to R2.5. The Chinese estimate it at R3.5. It can change, depending on a lot of factors, and since this is a relatively new strain, and the fact that the Chinese estimate that only about 5% of their infected population has been identified, it probably will. SARS r0 # is 3 to 4 range. Whooping cough 5.5, according to a study published in 2010 in the journal PLoS Medicine, and SARS has an R naught value in the 3 to 4 range. Rubella (German measles), Polio, smallpox all fit in the 5-7 range. Seasonal influenza is rated pretty low at about 1.3, but infects millions of people because of low resistance to it, as a seemingly never ending variety of strains emerge each year. Mumps has a 10 rating.
R naught... Seasonal flu has a low R number (R1.3) but as Randy posted, infects millions each year... Let's look at the R numbers...
There are too many ways for it to be transmitted for any one preventative to be highly effective. Present in any liquid or aerosol from the body, as well as in the feces. It can remain viable on surfaces for several hours. They do not know for sure yet how long it stays virulent suspended in air.
They're trying to establish a good R0 number. (R zero or R-naught) That's a number given a pathogen or infection that shows what the approximate rate of infection is. Non-infectious is R naught. A slightly infectious disease has a desirable R0 # below 1. Polio, smallpox and rubella have R0 values in the 5 to 7 range; such values mean that, on average, one sick person would be likely to infect five to seven people who were not resistant to the virus, Common measles is among the highest with an R# of r12 to R18, because measles virus can stay suspended in the air for as much as 2 hours after being expelled from a contagious person's sneeze or cough.
What is the R number? It is indicative of how many people are getting infected from a single infected person. A person with measles can generally infect 12-18 other people. WHO currently places Coronavirus at R1.4 to R2.5. The Chinese estimate it at R3.5. It can change, depending on a lot of factors, and since this is a relatively new strain, and the fact that the Chinese estimate that only about 5% of their infected population has been identified, it probably will. SARS r0 # is 3 to 4 range. Whooping cough 5.5, according to a study published in 2010 in the journal PLoS Medicine, and SARS has an R naught value in the 3 to 4 range. Rubella (German measles), Polio, smallpox all fit in the 5-7 range. Seasonal influenza is rated pretty low at about 1.3, but infects millions of people because of low resistance to it, as a seemingly never ending variety of strains emerge each year. Mumps has a 10 rating.
Some reports from the CDC and WHO have stated that this corona virus strain, ("WuFlu"), looks very similar to the 2003 SARS CoV with respect to patient pathology and communicability. The rate of patients developing resistant pneumonia even looks strikingly similar.
I expect that the R0 number for WuFlu will be similar to SARS or MERS
By the way, SARS had a fatality rate of approx. 9.6% worldwide. That includes countries that have FAR better medical care than China and consequently had a mortality rate approx. 50% or more lower than China and most of Asia.
Chinese medical care still incorporates an amount of traditional folk medicine which I firmly believe accounts for their inability to efficiently cope with epidemics like this.
[This message has been edited by randye (edited 02-03-2020).]
Those conspiracy theory nuts (and especially those gullible twit brains who spread & disseminate the fake stories) are about as sharp as a bowling ball. One question: I know it's winter, but do ya'll keep your heads up your asses for the warmth?
Those conspiracy theory nuts (and especially those gullible twit brains who spread & disseminate the fake stories) are about as sharp as a bowling ball. One question: I know it's winter, but do ya'll keep your heads up your asses for the warmth?
Some people can be handed Occam's Razor and they will promptly dull it into a butter knife and use it to spread bullshit on conspiracy toast..
[This message has been edited by randye (edited 02-03-2020).]
Things are always tin foil b/s. un till.............................. I think that even though, many push the tin foil over the top b/s. It is wise to read it, and put in the back of your head and wait and see what amount of what they claimed was not all that far off from reality.
not say'n believe it. just, it isn't wise to dismiss it. going on how many things , that some said was tin foil yahoo's ended up to be true or partly true. .
To many have an agenda. And the CDC is no different. I'd not trust anything they say with my life.
[This message has been edited by E.Furgal (edited 02-03-2020).]
I’m still here and kicking. My flight home was cancelled. I am planning on staying and self quarantining here instead of potentially bringing it home. I have internet and food and Coke Zero. I will survive just fine. My taxes can wait.
My flight to Singapore was cancelled. No more Chinese allowed in Singapore. I just arrived to Shanghai from Osaka. Had a bit of a scare with a cabin crew and fever. She was checked and is ok. Pulled my mask a bit tighter.
Things are always tin foil b/s. un till.............................. I think that even though, many push the tin foil over the top b/s. It is wise to read it, and put in the back of your head and wait and see what amount of what they claimed was not all that far off from reality.
not say'n believe it. just, it isn't wise to dismiss it. going on how many things , that some said was tin foil yahoo's ended up to be true or partly true. .
To many have an agenda. And the CDC is no different. I'd not trust anything they say with my life.
Exactly. ALL of the major powers have and are developing bioweapons. ALL of them have a risk of accidental release.
And this outbreak is right in the hometown of a lab.
Those who think it isn't at least a possibility are deluding themselves.
Not like China is going to issue a press release starting with "Hey, folks. A funny thing happened at the lab this morning "
As of about an hour ago BBC reported about 17,000 cases total & 360 deaths. Still not an exponential increase, but still rising.
I do have one question that someone might be able to answer. Since this is closely related to common flue & cold virus's, do patients get secondary bacteria infections? That happens a lot with colds and flue and can be worse than the original infection.
