I lead a sheltered life, don't get out much. I'm not a hermit but, I have never liked crowds. Having said that, I don't know a single person that has ever had polio. I know folks that have had the flu, colds and other viruses who were apparently happy to share and have been infected by them previously. I have been exposed to several different contagions by women in my younger days but, apparently, my natural immune system handled those situations.
Not to suggest that this virus isn't a bad thing at all but, the planet seems to be overrun with Lemmings. Panic buying of consumables, folks altering their lives, it's amazing to me. That is not meant to discourage good common sense but, I'm amazed at the reaction by the general public.
Would I get on a cruise ship now? Nope but, I wasn't interested in cruises before and I surely don't wish to get stuck on some ship waiting off shore to dis-embark. Might be different if this was 40 years ago and I was on a cruise with my new bride. Now, no way do I want to be confined in some small cabin with out an escape route.
Edited: I am curious though, in reference to this virus, what's going on in China, Russia, North Korea and other non-communicative states now?
Rams
[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 03-16-2020).]
Not; "Do you know anyone who has died from the Flu." This is supposed to be worse than the Flu, how many people do you know with the Flu.
I've got three people right now in the few miles around the house that have Flu. Most everyone I know has been pretty sick this last year.
As someone said on the radio the other day; " If there aren't piles of dead bodies all over the country by the end of the year, heads need to roll from this fear-mongering."
Nobody wants anyone to die, but we are being told that MILLIONS will be dead by the end of the year from it in the US (best case, if we do everything right). How many would have to die each day in order to make that number? People are being forced into their homes, off work and the economy is being crashed into a tree. This is all a high cost. Is the price worth it?
"Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths"
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Projections based on CDC scenarios show a potentially vast toll. But those numbers don’t account for interventions now underway
Sheri Fink for the New York Times; March 13, 2020 (updated March 15)
quote
The assumptions fueling those scenarios are mitigated by the fact that cities, states, businesses and individuals are beginning to take steps to slow transmission, even if some are acting less aggressively than others. The CDC-led effort is developing more sophisticated models showing how interventions might decrease the worst-case numbers, though their projections have not been made public.
“When people change their behavior," said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”
Those actions include testing for the virus, tracing contacts, and reducing human interactions by stopping mass gatherings, working from home and curbing travel. In just the last two days, multiple schools and colleges closed, sports events were halted or delayed, Broadway theaters went dark, companies barred employees from going to the office and more people said they were following hygiene recommendations.
On the Polio epidemic. My first wife had polio when she was just a toddler. She had just learned to walk and it got her. She had to spend a long time in isolation and in an iron lung. She had to learn how to walk all over again, with heavy steel braces. It badly affected her in that her left leg was pretty well destroyed. She had no muscles in her left leg. And there were a whole lot of little kids like her and adults too that got that virus until the Salk vaccine. That vaccine was a game changer.
I am sure that almost everyone of you that are over 50 have a friend that had polio. A whole lot of them recovered to the point where you wouldn't even know that they had it. Some who had bad cases ended up like my ex, with visible trauma from it. As she got older she seemed to be getting weaker. And I finally found a group called Post Polio Support. I finally talked her into going and I went with her to the meetings. The polio affected the synapses, the nerve connections to the muscles. Most people have a huge number of synapses to each muscle or muscle group. But, with the polio survivors they had only a few synapses for each muscle. What they ended up discovering is that as these polio survivors got older the normal aging process of synapses dying caused a lot more problems for them than for regular people. If you lost one synapse it wasn't a big deal. Others took over. But, for them to lose one synapse had huge implications.
We did find out a lot about the late life effects of polio from those classes. We also found out about new technology too. She had aluminum braces by then, but they still weighed about 5 pounds or so. Maybe that doesn't seem like a lot, but for someone who was already weak from the polio it was very heavy. Also, the braces she had used from her childhood were directly connected to her shoes. The shoes had to be specially designed heavy duty shoes with metal plates in them to hold up to the use of the braces. We found that there were new braces made from plastic and fiberglass, later Kevlar and Carbon Graphite. They were made by taking a female mold of her leg and then making a male mold from that. Then the brace would be formed around the male mold. It went under her foot and went into the shoe instead of being attached to the shoe. That meant she could wear regular shoes for the fist time in her life. You just can't imagine the joy on her face as she was able to shop for her first set on sneakers.
What I am trying to get at here is that Polio, while it is no longer a threat to us, had a huge impact on society in the late 40's and early 50's when it was rampant. Even though you don't know it, many of those survivors live with you and are your friends and neighbors. We in the US lost a lot more people than anything the Covid-19 is expected to do.
We will get through this. The government is taking extreme measures to prevent or to slow down the spread of the virus. All in the attempt to keep from having a huge peak in serious cases that would overwhelm the hospitals. If we can get through the next few weeks I think we will be alright. Our economy though is taking a huge hit and in my estimation the media and some of the politicians are trying to scare us and destroy our economy and our sense of well being. Take precautions, but don't over think this too much.
When you were a kid, did you always live in a rural environment? I'm just wondering if I met as many polio victims as I did simply because I lived in a more densely populated area?
I grew up and attended school in the small town Highlands Tx, (East gateway to the tallest monument in the world) population then of about 2000, within 25 miles of the City Limits of Houston Texas, then, 6th largest city in the US. (Yes, we had running water, city sewer, gas, telephones and paved roads) Our dubious claim to fame according to wikipedia?
quote
In 1965 W. O. Hutson built the Double Trouble Youth Rodeo Arena.
(I spent many a 'interesting' night there as it was only about 2 miles from our house, learning a LOT about riding bulls, bareback horses, about girls, fighting, and life in general..it wasn't always as 'youth oriented' as the Wiki entry indicates. I really loved that place, but my mother absolutely hated me going there... If she only knew all of what really went on there.. it could be a rough place. God love buckle bunnies!!)
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]Notable inhabitants Highlands is the hometown of:
The lead characters in the TV series Beavis and Butt-head live in the fictional community of Highland, Texas.
Note that their 'hometown' is spelled without an 's' on the end..
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 03-16-2020).]
Originally posted by rinselberg: "Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths"
I was listening to the radio, and they said that the Best Case, not the worst case scenario was at least a million people dead in the US by the end of the year "if we did everything right." I know what I heard.
Also.
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As the coronavirus spreads, one study predicts that even the best-case scenario is 15 million dead and a $2.4 trillion hit to global GDP
Andrew Slavitt, Barack Obama’s former acting administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), is quoting experts who say more than one million Americans are already doomed because the “virus was not contained.”
“Currently experts expect over 1 million deaths in the U.S. since the virus was not contained & we cannot even test for it,” Slavitt tweeted Thursday. “The original sin is Trump’s months long denial and his dismantling of public health and response infrastructure.”
Let’s be very clear about what Slavitt is saying…
AT THE VERY LEAST, ONE MILLION AMERICANS WILL DIE NO MATTER WHAT WE DO NEXT
In no uncertain terms, using these experts, Slavitt is saying that it is already too late to save a million Americans, and that more than one million Americans will be dead in the next 12 to 18 months.
He is saying that no matter what we do to contain and mitigate, no matter what we do going forward, it is fait accompli that more than one million Americans will die and that this is all President Trump’s fault.
Wow, that is truly amazing that someone would fear monger like that. Just look at the statistics we already have from China. Their population is over a billion. China only has 80,880 known cases and 3213 deaths. And they have more than leveled off. The number of new cases is way down there and probably going to stay low.
Yet, you have some idiot predicting over a million dead in the US, as a best case?
You better get out and buy, buy, buy. Stock up on everything then. Get your guns ready and your ammunition loaded.
I trust Chinese numbers about as much as Chinese tools.
The real problem isn't going to be the mortality. It's the economic devastation happening. News articles here are now talking about a housing crash similar or worse than 08.
Those forced into quarantine with no work benefits might qualify for employment insurance which is 55℅ of their pay, and if they don't qualify its down to welfare which gets them about $500/month or so.
I can see a lot of rent, mortgage and car payments not getting made in the near future.
Why kids aren't getting it often...and they didn't get SARS or MERS often either.. (SPOILER..researchers still don't know the answers but offer some interesting possibilities..)
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“If it bears out that kids are less prone to infection, then I suspect there’s something more mechanical than immunological going on,” said Esper, the pediatric infection expert. “Something about the receptors in children’s bodies or their lungs is interfering with the virus’ ability to attach itself.”
“It just shows you how much we don’t know about this virus,” said Stuart Weston, a virologist at the University of Maryland School of Medicine
I trust Chinese numbers about as much as Chinese tools.
The real problem isn't going to be the mortality. It's the economic devastation happening. News articles here are now talking about a housing crash similar or worse than 08.
Those forced into quarantine with no work benefits might qualify for employment insurance which is 55℅ of their pay, and if they don't qualify its down to welfare which gets them about $500/month or so.
I can see a lot of rent, mortgage and car payments not getting made in the near future.
I don't necessarily trust the Chinese Government to give us proper statistics. But, social media does exist even in China. And nothing really stands out showing that their reporting is way off.
It is already affecting me since I have a small business to supplement my SS. It is way down to almost nothing. So it does affect how I am able to keep up with bills. But, somehow I will get through it. And since I already have SS, the government won't let me get any other benefits.
I don't necessarily trust the Chinese Government to give us proper statistics. But, social media does exist even in China. And nothing really stands out showing that their reporting is way off.
It is already affecting me since I have a small business to supplement my SS. It is way down to almost nothing. So it does affect how I am able to keep up with bills. But, somehow I will get through it. And since I already have SS, the government won't let me get any other benefits.
That depends............during periods of National Emergency, laws and regs are often suspended. I have seen a lot of one-time fed and state cash grants made after hurricanes when people couldn't work because their workplace was destroyed or damaged. Things may be that way with this thing too.
Yep.MonthS at minimum. "We" don't have a vaccine.Researchers have "possible" vaccines, but...............
Researchers have developed vaccines and are starting to test them on animals, and if that goes well there could be human trials later in the year.
But even if scientists can celebrate having developed a vaccine before Christmas, there is still the massive job of being able to mass-produce it. It means, realistically, one would not be ready until at least the middle of next year.
All of this is happening on an unprecedented timescale and using new approaches to vaccines, so there are no guarantees everything will go smoothly.
Remember there are four coronaviruses that already circulate in human beings and we've known about them for decades. They cause the common cold, and we don't have vaccines for any of them.
I grew up and attended school in the small town Highlands Tx, population then of about 2000...
Possibly population density did play a major role in polio transmission then, as my high school alone had an enrollment of 2000 students.
quote
Originally posted by MadMark:
What I am trying to get at here is that Polio, while it is no longer a threat to us, had a huge impact on society in the late 40's and early 50's when it was rampant.
I am sure that almost everyone of you that are over 50 have a friend that had polio.
Informative post. My only quibble is that perhaps age 60 and over would be a little more precise.
Yep.MonthS at minimum. "We" don't have a vaccine.Researchers have "possible" vaccines, but...............
Researchers have developed vaccines and are starting to test them on animals, and if that goes well there could be human trials later in the year.
But even if scientists can celebrate having developed a vaccine before Christmas, there is still the massive job of being able to mass-produce it. It means, realistically, one would not be ready until at least the middle of next year.
All of this is happening on an unprecedented timescale and using new approaches to vaccines, so there are no guarantees everything will go smoothly.
Remember there are four coronaviruses that already circulate in human beings and we've known about them for decades. They cause the common cold, and we don't have vaccines for any of them.
They have bypassed some of the normal steps. In this case I dont believe they have tested this new vaccine on animals, and they are already starting human testing.
I just went to the grocery store, I hadn’t been in a couple of weeks. I expected them to be out of TP, but I was surprised to see that they were out of everything! They didn’t even have bags for the groceries, everything was just checked out, then put back in the cart.
The shelves were half empty. Very little produce, sparse selections of meat, no ground beef. Did all the cows die of corona virus? They did have all kinds of rinselburger (imitation cow) for sale, but I did not think that now was the time to try it, what with having to conserve what little TP I have on hand.
I really don’t understand how or why it is like this. If people are just hording, they should be at or near a saturation point by now. Has production and transportation of all these commodities completely broken down? Is it going to be like this all spring?
Everyone was calm and friendly, but I don’t understand how an entire country like ours can go to hell in a matter of one week.
It's been more than a few years. When most of us grew up everyone had a pantry with 4-6 weeks supply on hand. Since the 90s that concept has slowly disappeared in favor of buying a weeks or even a few days supplies at a time.
Too much other stuff to spend the money on. Then when something happens everybody's screwed.
I just went to the grocery store... I really don’t understand how or why it is like this.
I was in the produce section of a large grocery store on Friday late afternoon, and I wanted two 5 lb bags of oranges, but they had gotten mixed together with a bunch of 3 lb bags. So I was in the process of separating them (by grabbing their plastic mesh bags) and some guy behind me says what I thought was... "Don't take them all." I figured he was just kidding around (as by now I had my two 5 lb bags and there were perhaps a dozen other bags of oranges still sitting there), so I smiled at him and said... "I'm not taking them all, there's plenty left." He then shouts at me... " I said don't TOUCH them all!!!" I stood there, kind of stunned by this sudden outburst... and he starts going on and on about me spreading viruses all over everything. I didn't even touch the freakin' oranges... but I played along, and calmly asked him if he ate the peels. He ignored my question, but by this time I was a little more agitated, so I got in his face (as unknown to him, he was between my cart and myself) and I repeated, a little louder this time... "Do-You-Eat-The-Peel?" He backed away, but now he was really wound up. He went on and on about "typical Canadians, typical smart Canadians", which was kind of weird, as I have no reason to believe that he wasn't a Canadian himself. He then went back to his virus speech. I commented on his paranoia as I made my way past the freak. Yeah, I know... I should've shot him.
It was definitely a weird experience. If people are already cracking up, we're in for a long long spring and summer.
You do understand Patrick, that the peel of almost all citrus is waxy and similar to a plastic. He doesn't have to eat the peel..just touch it and then touch his face....IF you (or someone else) was infected and left the virus on the peel. But yes, he was over the top.
He doesn't have to eat the peel..just touch it and then touch his face....IF you (or someone else) was infected and left the virus on the peel.
He should've been standing there earlier in the day then, and yelling at the produce guys as they stocked the bins. But as I said, I was just playing along with the idiot.
Of course, I had the option of bypassing the peel and applying my (rolled up) hand directly to his face. ...but I'm not normally that way inclined.
It wasn't overnight...you all have been working on it for several years.
Big and small stores haven't kept a lot of extra inventory in stock now for quite a few years. Most have moved to auto-ordering by computer almost instantly as the goods are sold then they rely on Just in Time delivery. The problem with that kind of logistics train is that they don't expect every store to be nearly completely out of stock all at once.
I believe this will all settle down soon, probably within 2 weeks as the consumers don't have enough refrigerated space to keep it all long term. Fewer still have big freezers. They are hoarding right now so they don't have to go back out into public any sooner than they have to. I'm afraid tho I could be wrong and this mass of humanity will descend once again in to stores every weekend when most people receive their paychecks.
It's been serious from the start, at least since mid-January. People just didn't realize it..or Chose to ignore it under the "It's never happened in MY lifetime, therefore it won't/can't happen..not here anyway".
It's been serious from the start, at least since mid-January.
At first it seemed like this was a "China" problem... but of course, viruses don't respect borders.
Now that we're in the midst of it, and it's probably going to get a whole lot worse, it's rather sobering. All the activities we take for granted are being curtailed. Hockey season (both NHL and my own recreational hockey) is abruptly stopped. Yoga classes (hey, Iyengar yoga keeps me young!) are done... etc etc.
I'm not all that concerned about my own health, as I'm in good condition, and my parents are long deceased... but the next few months are unfortunately going to be a game changer for a lot of people.
[This message has been edited by Patrick (edited 03-17-2020).]
It's been serious from the start, at least since mid-January. People just didn't realize it..or Chose to ignore it under the "It's never happened in MY lifetime, therefore it won't/can't happen..not here anyway".
Man, I have deep respect for you, but we've got misinformation coming from all directions. We have been under attack for the last four years with disinformation from one side or another. There is no legitimate way to discern what is a fact, and what isn't. Nobody is willfully ignoring anything. After being lied to for what seems like our entire lives, you can't hold it against us for questioning what is the reality here.
What I can see happening is now that the president has been set, this lockdown/shutdown will become the new normal for everything.
Timmy has the sniffles? Shut down an entire county over it.
For 40 years as a society we have been marching to away from the slightest physical risk. We used to joke about safe spaces and living in pillow-lined rooms so you don't get a boo-boo.
Well, here we are. Except the rooms are lined with toilet paper and not pillows.
You are correct Fats...but as always, it is incumbent upon each of us to separate wheat from chaff...fact from fiction. OUR own responsibility. Those who are easily led, are easily led astray they say. It falls to us to not be easily led. And maybe because of my age, I realized long ago that "we" have been lied to for far longer than the previous 4 political years.
I'm sorry, but this "rebel" act isn't very convincing.
To an extent, yes I do think it's an over-reaction. Some reasonable precautions is one thing but we are in a whole new territory.
Remember SARS? MERS? Was there anywhere near this kind of panic over them?
Add to that the sheer silliness going on. Close the border, but not for 400 million. Ban groups over 50 but not 40. Isn't the risk in a group of 40 pretty much the same as 60?
Maybe because I tend to be a loner anyway and really only socialize for work purposes, but my perspective is the whole exercises is a lot like sealing leaks in a sinking boat but deliberately leaving enough leaks for it to sink anyway, just at a slower rate.
Now, no way do I want to be confined in some small cabin with out an escape route. 
I didn't even touch the freakin' oranges... but I played along, and calmly asked him if he ate the peels. He ignored my question, but by this time I was a little more agitated, so I got in his face (as unknown to him, he was between my cart and myself) and I repeated, a little louder this time... "Do-You-Eat-The-Peel?" He backed away, but now he was really wound up. He went on and on about "typical Canadians, typical smart Canadians", which was kind of weird, as I have no reason to believe that he wasn't a Canadian himself. 
He then went back to his virus speech. I commented on his paranoia as I made my way past the freak. Yeah, I know... I should've shot him. 
...but I'm not normally that way inclined.
