Do you think that will be permanent? Or can it be brushed off as just the latest wave?
We will just have to let it all set for awhile to find out. Quantities might taper off sharply, but supplies should be replaced quickly in either a sharp peak or more slowly to even a flat top.
The experts the state talked with at Columbia University, McKinsey and elsewhere were asked to model something that had never been modeled before. Using their work to prepare the state was the right move, Cuomo said.
“They didn’t know how unified New Yorkers can be and how responsible they can be and how caring they are,” he said. “That’s what they couldn’t count in those models. They couldn’t count the spirit of New Yorkers (Americans)and the love of New Yorkers (Americans) to step up and do the right thing.
“That’s what they couldn’t figure out on their computers.”
Just my perspective but, whoever said that Columbia University, McKinsey is full of crap. What caused people to finally pay attention and start following "Social Distancing" and the other hygiene recommendations was not any form of patriotism or "Spirit/Love" of New Yorkers or Americans, I suppose one could construe it as "Love" for Granny. What finally got people's attention was the death toll and fear.
We don't like being told what to do and will generally do what we want until we figure out there are consequences to our own actions. Fear is a huge motivator.
Rams
[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 04-15-2020).]
No need to put words in my mouth it's not about me.. it's a little bit more thorough accurate reporting I guess. I did see they are spmewhat thinking of localized business closures such as places most affected, more than places the virus isn't as much yet, not that I know whether that's a better idea. But are you saying they really think the real bigger picture curve as gone by in North America? I'm not sure how it works I thought since it needs a host, the host is gonna be there sooner or later, "the curve" will take longer when quarantining?
[This message has been edited by 2.5 (edited 04-13-2020).]
Flattening the curve only means pushing the cases out over a longer timeline. It does not mean less cases. I believe the intent was only to not overwhelm the need for ventilators or beds. The only good news is that most people won't suffer the worst effects. However, it still feels like playing the roulette wheel.
Agreed.
[This message has been edited by 2.5 (edited 04-13-2020).]
The curve-flattening is only semi-succ3sul as we are seeing on the nightly news.
Those most likely to be severe cases tend to live in clusters. Old age homes, retirement villages, assisted living, those types of places. Once the virus gets on there the percentage is horrendous. We have a few that hit the news with 50% or better severe cases.
Just my perspective but, whoever said that is full of crap. What caused people to finally pay attention and start following "Social Distancing" and the other hygiene recommendations was not any form of patriotism or "Spirit/Love" of New Yorkers or Americans, I suppose one could construe it as "Love" for Granny. What finally got people's attention was the death toll and fear.
We don't like being told what to do and will generally do what we want until we figure out there are consequences to our own actions. Fear is a huge motivator.
Rams
We? Speak for yourself. 'Fear'is a term way over used in this context and many others.
Flattening the curve only means pushing the cases out over a longer timeline. It does not mean less cases. I believe the intent was only to not overwhelm the need for ventilators or beds. The only good news is that most people won't suffer the worst effects. However, it still feels like playing the roulette wheel.
Not exactly. The graphs most of us look at are 2 axis, x/y showing time (period) and quantities (amplitude). It's much like an oscilloscope graph..
It is thought that for this illness, the flat part of the curve will last 'about' the same period regardless of the number of infected at the top of the graph. Exactly how long the flat part lasts depends on demographics (avg age and pre-existing risk factors) and how well the infected are treated and thus how quickly they are able to recover..or not, and die.
Number of total infections: In a fast moving, fast killing pandemic with a short incubation time, and a short infectious time there would be virtually no curve on a graph, just a sharp climb over a short period of time to a 'pointed' peak, then an equally sharp drop, as the number of newly infected hosts are limited by death.
It has been shown, that for every 1000 people infected in each country, a certain and mostly predictable % of the infected for any given country are going to die. IF, the total # of infected levels off at 200,000, then the total killed is going to be far higher (assumed to be 2x higher) for the flat time period than if the total infected (again, for any given country) had leveled off at only 100,000.
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 04-13-2020).]
We? Speak for yourself. 'Fear'is a term way over used in this context and many others.
Don, In this case, “we” is a generic term meaning the population as a whole. Humans and especially Americans who hold our Constitution as a defining document of our rights don’t like being told to stay at home or away from the beach (as an example).
I’ll fully admit to following the guidance provided because I didn’t want to risk catching COVID-19. Was it fear or good common sense? I guess we each have to decide that for ourselves. I maintain that the majority of New Yorkers only started to pay attention and followed the guidance when they saw other New Yorkers dropping dead.
The definition of Courage I subscribe to is having fear but with the willingness to carry forward regardless of that fear.
Rams
[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 04-14-2020).]
For what it's worth, Chicago is nearly back to regular traffic now. Going through Michigan is lighter traffic, but not that much less than normal really.
Don, In this case, “we” is a generic term meaning the population as a whole. Humans and especially Americans who hold our Constitution as a defining document of our rights don’t like being told to stay at home or away from the beach (as an example).
I’ll fully admit to following the guidance provided because I didn’t want to risk catching COVID-19. Was it fear or good common sense? I guess we each have to decide that for ourselves. I maintain that the majority of New Yorkers only starting to pay attention and followed the guidance when they saw other New Yorkers dropping dead.
The definition of Courage I subscribe to is having fear but with the willingness to carry forward regardless of that fear.
Rams
I find most of that very hard to believe, considering for how long, and how many times and how emphatically it has been stated over and over by just about anyone with any medical credentials that the regular masks DO NOT protect the wearer from coronavirus. I know of no one that thinks they do. 'Fear' of GETTING it has nothing whatsoever with wearing a mask.
quote
The main benefit of wearing masks in public isn’t to protect you from getting sick. Rather, it’s to protect others from yourself if you’re sick or you’re an asymptomatic carrier. “This is more for people who might be infected and don’t know it, and to try and lower the likelihood that they will spread this to somebody else,” CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta said. The CDC agreed.
I find most of that very hard to believe, considering for how long, and how many times and how emphatically it has been stated over and over by just about anyone with any medical credentials that the regular masks DO NOT protect the wearer from coronavirus. I know of no one that thinks they do. 'Fear' of GETTING it has nothing whatsoever with wearing a mask.
[QUOTE]The main benefit of wearing masks in public isn’t to protect you from getting sick. Rather, it’s to protect others from yourself if you’re sick or you’re an asymptomatic carrier. “This is more for people who might be infected and don’t know it, and to try and lower the likelihood that they will spread this to somebody else,” CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta said. The CDC agreed.
Wearing of a mask was only one of the guidelines, staying home and social distancing plus good hygiene and other precautions but, see it (the motivation) as you wish. The country as a whole and many of our elected leaders didn't move on these guidelines until folks started dropping dead. I guess we'll just have different perspectives on what the motivation was to actually get the nation and specifically the "hot" zones to comply and follow those guidelines.
Rams
[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 04-14-2020).]
Here is the motivation for all of it. Allowing the hot zones to develop in the first place, the global knockdown, I suspect even the release of the virus in the first place.
Google and apple have been tracking via phone for years. Now the governments have a carrot and stick way to do it. You can move so long as we track everything.
NWO agenda 21 in action and right in your face. They even got the year. 21 by the time it's fully implemented.
Freedom is a thing of the past.
[This message has been edited by MidEngineManiac (edited 04-14-2020).]
Wearing of a mask was only one of the guidelines, staying home and social distancing plus good hygiene and other precautions but, see it (the motivation) as you wish. The country as a whole and many of our elected leaders didn't move on these guidelines until folks started dropping dead. I guess we'll just have different perspectives on what the motivation was to actually get the nation and specifically the "hot" zones to comply and follow those guidelines.
Rams
The motivation to get people to comply is one thing but to keep them in compliance is another. I see this falling apart already. I have never seen any data or statistics on exactly who is dying of covid. I hear that older people and preexisting conditions are at risk? I do not doubt this, but I predict that the prevailing thought will be to recommend locking those people down and the rest go back to normal. Is this mentality right or wrong? Or is the "medicine" poison that in the end will hurt America worse that the covid? Convincing America to lock down will be easier than convincing them to stay down. The more freedom that is stripped away, the sooner this lock down will end.
Originally posted by Rickady88GT: Convincing America to lock down will be easier than convincing them to stay down. The more freedom that is stripped away, the sooner this lock down will end.
On this, we are in full agreement. Of course, when guidelines are relaxed and more hot spots develop due to not eliminating the virus, more deaths will result and the cycle will start all over. Fear (or common sense) will again rise it's ugly head.
The motivation to get people to comply is one thing but to keep them in compliance is another. I see this falling apart already. ....
I think some of that is the talk that is scattered around as if we are mostly over this already. Some people hear that and just react. A lot of people don't think for themselves.
Wearing of a mask was only one of the guidelines, staying home and social distancing plus good hygiene and other precautions but, see it (the motivation) as you wish. The country as a whole and many of our elected leaders didn't move on these guidelines until folks started dropping dead. I guess we'll just have different perspectives on what the motivation was to actually get the nation and specifically the "hot" zones to comply and follow those guidelines.
Rams
Sounds as if you have moved from Ky down to Miss and have contracted the redneck conspiracy theory illness. La and Ark are once again saying "Thank gawd for Mississippi".
Here is what you just typed and submitted, stated in another way. The leaders didn't issue mask guidelines, with the medical community concurring until they realized that even more could be done than social distancing , and The People didn't start start wearing masks until the spokesmen said yes, it will help. If it were just as simplistic a matter as watching "people dropping dead", then the mask thing would have been officially condoned/recommended back in Feb when so many were dying in Washington State.
The factual part is the medical gurus didn't recommend it early because there were no masks to be had (bought) early on (reserved for nurses and doctors) and those at the top of state and federal agencies (rich people in govt) probably don't have wives that sew.
But you and MeM can glean whatever conspiracy theory you wish from it.
Work from home: I was already working part time from home. Going in to the office in the morning then finishing the day from home. It was pretty easy to transition to working from home. I didn't need anyone to tell me and after making arrangements with my manager I started working from home 2 weeks before it was a suggestion. Masks: We have 5 professional masks and Lisa is working on making us some masks now Food: We have been doing well having food delivered, its hit or miss but its kept us from going outside.
The hardest part is staying active. I have been having a hard time going to sleep at night. Lisa is having a harder time than I am and is constantly reading and watching video. I don't trust any of it and depending on the organization it will always slant one way or the other. Bottom line, do the best you can. If you don't need to go out then don't. But if you need the government to tell you to stay inside because of a contagion that you could have an not know it for up to two weeks. Then my friends you are the problem. This isn't a cold that you can shake off, its not the same. So you can protest, complain because your favorite "insert what you are bitching about being closed here" being closed. Keep going out and spreading the infection and you will find they are going to be closed a lot longer.
When it does get to the point that the Federal Government has to step in because common sense and local Government failed, remember that this could have been avoided. India is locked down, no one goes out and food is being delivered. Bet there are some delicious selections. /sarcasm They just extended it another two weeks. The
Now for those that are wondering, I did receive my new battery charger. Schumacher SC1281 6/12V Fully Automatic Battery Charger and 30/100A Engine Starter with Advanced Diagnostic Testing It charged my battery in 4 hours. Has a lot of features and never once got hot like the old buzz box I had. Cost me under $90 to ship to my door. I did take something to help me sleep so later I will make the journey to the garage and the take on the task of mowing the front yard.
I believed very much in the beginning that this was a viral game changer. Only the governments have changed the game. The death rate, in which I very early on believed will be high, is nothing like projected. Happy to be wrong.
If you do the math it's around 4%. And that is all people dying who either tested positive or is suspected of having the virus no matter any underlying conditions. They may have had the regular flu or pneumonia from another source but everything is grouped under virus deaths at this point.
40% of the cases with an outcome.....outcome is defined as got well or died. Total cases with an outcome is only 64,867. Very misleading statement, as the total number of cases is 613,866 ..
[This message has been edited by olejoedad (edited 04-14-2020).]
You are welcome to interpret my statement however you wish. Your interpretation is no where close to what I said but, that's OK.
Be Safe out there.
Rams
I made your statement sound better than it actually was, since you neglected to include that the initial guidelines was for the general population to not wear masks. You made it sound as if the opposite were true and the general population only began wearing masks after they saw 'so many dropping'. The medical analysts had realized their death projections were way more than what was actually happening, both in total deaths and deaths/100,000 but the rate of infection (new cases) were still too high to enable the country to get back to normal very quickly, so the federal guidelines reversed course and and on Apr 3 strongly suggested everyone begin wearing masks to lower the community infections. It was because of that and predominantly that change in course, that so many began making or obtaining masks and wearing them.
I believe that new guidance is working just as social distancing did.
April 14 (GMT) 26945 new cases and 2407 new deaths in the United States US reaches 600,000 cases
April 13 (GMT) 26641 new cases and 1535 new deaths in the United States
April 12 (GMT) 27421 new cases and 1528 new deaths in the United States
April 11 (GMT) 30003 new cases and 1830 new deaths in the United States
April 10 (GMT) 33752 new cases and 2035 new deaths in the United States US reaches 500,000 cases.
April 9 (GMT) 33536 new cases and 1900 new deaths in the United States
April 8 (GMT) 31935 new cases and 1940 new deaths in the United States.
April 7 (GMT)interim 33331 new cases and 1970 new deaths in the United States. US reaches 400,000 cases.
April 6 (GMT) 30331 new cases and 1255 new deaths in the United States
April 5 (GMT) 25316 new cases and 1165 new deaths in the United States.
April 4 (GMT) 34196 new cases and 1331 new deaths in the United States US reaches 300,000 cases.
April 3 (GMT) 32284 new cases and 1321 new deaths in the United States
April 2 (GMT) 29874 new cases and 968 new deaths in the United States
April 1 (GMT) alert 26473 new cases and 1049 new deaths in the United States US reaches 200,000 cases
March 31 (GMT) 24742 new cases and 912 new deaths in the United States
March 30 (GMT) 20297 new cases and 558 new deaths in the United States
March 29 (GMT) 19913 new cases and 362 new deaths in the United States
March 28 (GMT) 19452 new cases and 525 new deaths in the United States
March 27 (GMT) alert 18691 new cases and 401 new deaths in the United States US total reaches 100,000 cases.
If you do the math it's around 4%. And that is all people dying who either tested positive or is suspected of having the virus no matter any underlying conditions. They may have had the regular flu or pneumonia from another source but everything is grouped under virus deaths at this point.
The reality is less than .02 but who is counting anyway.
40% of the cases with an outcome.....outcome is defined as got well or died. Total cases with an out one is only 64,867. Very misleading statement, as the total number of cases is 613,866 ..
40% of 613,886 would mean 245,554 would be dead. Not even close.
40% of the 64,879 cases that have thus far had an outcome did die, but not 40% of those who were infected by the illness.
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 04-14-2020).]
Originally posted by maryjane: 40% of 613,886 would mean 245,554 would be dead. Not even close.
Yup.
For a global police state Armageddon, this is as big a fizzle as the rest of them the past 10,000 years.
Not a zombie or vampire to be seen. Not even Chicky the killer doll.
Just a bunch of panic, media hype, and knees jerking. Yippee were all gonna die... Again.
Cmon. Throw me a bone here. Can we at least get a killer asteroid or nuclear war or something. I'm still waiting on my 2012 end-of-humanity and here we are with a whole new one that came from common core math.
I knew that, but some folks here actually need the math spelled (typed) out for them. Not sure when or how they are going to add them in, but NYC just added an extra 3778 deaths that occurred between Mar11 and today but had been left off the stats.
"26945 new cases and 2407 new deaths in the United States New York City today has reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent" [source]. We will add these to the New York State total as soon as it is determined whether the historical distribution can be obtained"
I wonder if there is a correlation between people that think they are going to die from corona and people that think they have a chance to win the lottery.
I wonder if there is a correlation between people that think they are going to die from corona and people that think they have a chance to win the lottery.
I think I'll win the lottery, then die of the virus on my way to the Ferrari dealer.
I wonder if there is a correlation between people that think they are going to die from corona and people that think they have a chance to win the lottery.
You have a much better chance with the lottery. 50/50. You'll either win it or you won't. Odds of dying from covid19 is still pretty slim.
I made your statement sound better than it actually was, since you neglected to include that the initial guidelines was for the general population to not wear masks. You made it sound as if the opposite were true and the general population only began wearing masks after they saw 'so many dropping'.
Don, The only thing I specifically mentioned was the motivation, patriotism and love of ______ versus fear or common sense. Read what you wish into the statement, interpret it as you wish. That does not change the reasons folks started paying attention and following established guidelines. That is all I was calling on.
Personal opinion and perspective will vary among individuals, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on what motivated the "masses" to start "getting with the program".
Edited: On another note, just read and then saw on the "news" that the money Congress put up for "Small Business Forgivable Loans" is almost gone. The estimate given was that only about 5% of the potential "Small Businesses" will be able to get some of the money if Congress doesn't put up more. The economics of this Pandemic will haunt us for generations. IMHO, we'll be lucky if we only experience a world wide recession. Again, Personal Opinion. No One should assume this is a personal attack.
Rams
[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 04-15-2020).]
You have a much better chance with the lottery. 50/50. You'll either win it or you won't. Odds of dying from covid19 is still pretty slim.
quote
More than a third of Americans believe winning the lottery is the only way they will ever retire comfortably. But the odds of winning either the Powerball or Mega Millions are roughly 1 in 292.2 million and 1 in 302.6 million, respectively. https://www.bing.com/search...2e94f23464ef9b2f3420 b93fc3b66&cc=US&setlang=en-US
Originally posted by blackrams: What finally got people's attention was the death toll and fear.
We don't like being told what to do and will generally do what we want until we figure out there are consequences to our own actions. Fear is a huge motivator.
Well, there is truth to that in my case.
The wife has practiced ZERO exposure and her kids do what ever to make sure she can practice ZERO exposure. I am scared to be the only one to muck it up,
quote
Originally posted by Rickady88GT: The motivation to get people to comply is one thing but to keep them in compliance is another. I see this falling apart already.
Convincing America to lock down will be easier than convincing them to stay down. The more freedom that is stripped away, the sooner this lock down will end.
I did not agree with the guidelines being a blanket solution. I saw, and see, a lot of actions which don't make sense. I selectively complied and know of those that don't.
quote
Originally posted by blackrams: Fear (or common sense) will again rise it's ugly head.
Fear and common sense is not "ugly".
quote
Originally posted by blackrams: Edited: On another note, just read and then saw on the "news" that the money Congress put up for "Small Business Forgivable Loans" is almost gone.
Was that intended ? Now the politicians can get 'mo money for their pet causes.
on.
