More than a third of Americans believe winning the lottery is the only way they will ever retire comfortably. But the odds of winning either the Powerball or Mega Millions are roughly 1 in 292.2 million and 1 in 302.6 million, respectively.
Have a brother in law that bought lottery tickets all the time and a few years ago made a huge ass deal about winning $1000 playing the lottery. All I asked was how much had he spent before winning the grand. (knowing he had spent much more than that).He was a little pissed for about a month.
[This message has been edited by Lambo nut (edited 04-15-2020).]
Originally posted by maryjane: You have a much better chance with the lottery. 50/50. You'll either win it or you won't. Odds of dying from covid19 is still pretty slim.
Hmm … odds of dying from Covid are either you will, or you won't.
Originally posted by Lambo nut: Have a brother in law that bought lottery tickets all the time and a few years ago made a huge ass deal about winning $1000 playing the lottery. All I asked was how much had he spent before winning the grand. (knowing he had spent much more than that).He was a little pissed for about a month.
In the year of 19 and 18, God sent a mighty disease. It killed many a-thousand, on land and on the seas.
Well, we done told you, our God's done warned you, Jesus coming soon. We done told you, our God's done warned you, Jesus coming soon.
Great disease was mighty and the people were sick everywhere. It was an epidemic, it floated through the air.
Well, we done told you, our God's done warned you, Jesus coming soon. We done told you, our God's done warned you, Jesus coming soon.
I think this was recorded in the late 1920's. The intro is from an interview with "Blind Willie" McTell recorded by John Lomax* around 1940.
*John Lomax, and later his son Alan, were responsible for preserving a lot of 20th century American folk music. Anyone interested in such things should look them up.
[This message has been edited by williegoat (edited 04-15-2020).]
It's possible that smoking or one of it's chemical effects protects one against covid-19of course, but there are other possibilities as well.
quote
"And data from multiple Chinese studies shows that COVID-19 hospital patients contained a smaller proportion of smokers than the general population (6.5 per cent compared to 26.6 per cent), suggesting they were less likely to end up in hospital. 'This preliminary analysis does not support the argument that current smoking is a risk factor for hospitalization for COVID-19,' it reads.
'Instead, these consistent observations, which are further emphasized by the low prevalence of current smoking among COVID-19 patients in the US (1.3 per cent), raises the hypothesis that nicotine may have beneficial effects on COVID-19.'
Not sure how smoking in public works in China where about 50% of the male population still smokes, but we all know how tobacco use in the USA is frowned upon.
Smokers in the US are far less likely to closely interact and intermingle with the general population, due to the large numbers of 'no smoking/tobacco free' public places and the general stigma that smokers have attached to them. And, only about 14% of the USA still smokes, so that would immediately decrease by like percentages the likelihood that smokers would show up in the total infected population.
Factor in the aforementioned societal segregation from the non-smoking public and it's reasonable to believe that percentage would fall even farther. Like everything else, I would have to see some real science behind this to believe it to any great degree. The article only visits whether smoking itself increases or decreases the % of infections, but does not present Covid related evidence regarding the usual side effects of smoking. Considering that the usual effect of smoking on the human body is heart and lung disease (high risk factors adversely affecting Covid19 survivability) it would have to be shown to be worth the risk. Obviously, from the article's own data, some smokers do still get infected. If the small sampling #s hold true across the entire number of cases,...6.5% of 82,295 or 5,349 in China and 1.3% or 8364 in the US, how many of those died? I also noticed, that the patient age of the China data was relatively low. Age 38-59. lots of unknowns. I wouldn't be willing to take up smoking again just to decrease my odds of contracting coronavirus..or for any other reason
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 04-15-2020).]
Not sure how smoking in public works in China where about 50% of the male population still smokes...
My neighbors across the street are from mainland China. The father (middle of three generations in the house) is a chain smoker. He appears to be incapable of going without a smoke in his mouth for more than a minute. I've noticed in the last few days when he drives off, he's wearing a mask. Of course, with a cigarette sticking out of his mouth, the mask is down around his chin. Might be an excellent time for smokers to consider switching to a nicotine patch!
[This message has been edited by Patrick (edited 04-15-2020).]
Or a marketing opportunity for surgical masks with holes...
Good project for all the engineers here. How best to allow the smoke (and/or the actual cigarette) free passage through the mask while at the same time preventing the virus from doing so.... Hmmm... I think just using a nicotine patch would be a whole lot easier.
[This message has been edited by Patrick (edited 04-15-2020).]
Depends on exactly what smoking is doing to help with covid19. Nicotine patches don't release anything into the lungs, and in the lining of the lungs is where the virus finds and takes over the specific cells it 'likes'. And, no one is sure if it's the nicotine itself that is helping (if it is at all) or if it is the smoke and tars that are part and parcel with smoking.
There is a disease called Sarcoidosis which is an inflammatory illness of the lungs that studies have shown that nicotine patches seem to help with. The primary symptom of that disease tho, is not shortness of breath such as comes with COPD and lung cancer but is extreme fatigue. Isolated nicotine itself is both a stimulant and anti-inflammatory drug.
Good project for all the engineers here. How best to allow the smoke (and/or the actual cigarette) free passage through the mask while at the same time preventing the virus from doing so.... Hmmm... I think just using a nicotine patch would be a whole lot easier.
Use a twin cartridge style mask. Modify one cartridge with a cigarette holder through it. Leave the other one stock. Cover whichever side you don't want to use.
It's been done 10 years ago... And I know nooooooooting about those incidents
A little maybe, but only because of the recovered rate. A week ago recovery was 60/40 over the death rate within the {cases with an outcome} category and now stands at 62/38. Still running 2000-3000 new deaths every day and around 30,000 new cases every day. Still increasing cases by 100,000 every 3.5 days.
Apr 17 (GMT) 32165 new cases and 2535 new deaths in the United States US reaches 700,000 cases per day.
Apr 16 (GMT) 29567 new cases and 2174 new deaths in the United States
April 15 (GMT) 30206 new cases and 2482 new deaths in the United States
April 14 (GMT) 26945 new cases and 2407 new deaths in the United States US reaches 600,000 cases
April 13 (GMT) 26641 new cases and 1535 new deaths in the United States
April 12 (GMT) 27421 new cases and 1528 new deaths in the United States
April 11 (GMT) 30003 new cases and 1830 new deaths in the United States
April 10 (GMT) 33752 new cases and 2035 new deaths in the United States US reaches 500,000 cases.
April 9 (GMT) 33536 new cases and 1900 new deaths in the United States
April 8 (GMT) 31935 new cases and 1940 new deaths in the United States.
April 7 (GMT)interim 33331 new cases and 1970 new deaths in the United States. US reaches 400,000 cases.
April 6 (GMT) 30331 new cases and 1255 new deaths in the United States
April 5 (GMT) 25316 new cases and 1165 new deaths in the United States.
April 4 (GMT) 34196 new cases and 1331 new deaths in the United States US reaches 300,000 cases.
April 3 (GMT) 32284 new cases and 1321 new deaths in the United States
April 2 (GMT) 29874 new cases and 968 new deaths in the United States
April 1 (GMT) alert 26473 new cases and 1049 new deaths in the United States US reaches 200,000 cases
March 31 (GMT) 24742 new cases and 912 new deaths in the United States
March 30 (GMT) 20297 new cases and 558 new deaths in the United States
March 29 (GMT) 19913 new cases and 362 new deaths in the United States
March 28 (GMT) 19452 new cases and 525 new deaths in the United States
March 27 (GMT) alert 18691 new cases and 401 new deaths in the United States US total reaches 100,000 cases.
I just got back from Safeway. It has been nearly a month since my last trip and things have changed for the better. Although there were random items that were low on stock (I know....first world problems), I was able to buy everything I wanted. I got rice, pasta, bottled water and meat.
Masks were not required, although most, including me, were wearing them and everyone was in a good mood.
I was even able to score this:
CLICK FOR FULL SIZE
So I figured it was OK to go ahead and buy this:
CLICK FOR FULL SIZE
I would post a video of me dancing a jig, if I didn't think it would get me speedbanned.
[This message has been edited by williegoat (edited 04-21-2020).]
3.5-4 days, like clockwork to gain another 100,000 cases. Currently USA 813,589 45,013 dead +20,830 new cases +2,499 new deaths since yesterday. Looking a little better tho, especially if you take it state by state, and the recovered vs death is improving. 82,620 (65%) Recovered / Discharged
45,013 (35%) Deaths
Some of the states tho, I'm concerned about their plans for quick return to normal, even phased. These are the #10-13 states ranked by total cases. Look at Georgia. They announced yesterday they would probably be returning to normal in steps beginning this Friday.
But ..it's up to them.
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 04-21-2020).]
Here they are talking about beginning to open things up on May 1st. But they can take their time now. This too, will pass; and when it does, I've got toilet paper. I'm good.
A little maybe, but only because of the recovered rate. A week ago recovery was 60/40 over the death rate within the {cases with an outcome} category and now stands at 62/38. Still running 2000-3000 new deaths every day and around 30,000 new cases every day. Still increasing cases by 100,000 every 3.5 days.
Apr 17 (GMT) 32165 new cases and 2535 new deaths in the United States US reaches 700,000 cases per day.
Apr 16 (GMT) 29567 new cases and 2174 new deaths in the United States
April 15 (GMT) 30206 new cases and 2482 new deaths in the United States
April 14 (GMT) 26945 new cases and 2407 new deaths in the United States US reaches 600,000 cases
April 13 (GMT) 26641 new cases and 1535 new deaths in the United States
April 12 (GMT) 27421 new cases and 1528 new deaths in the United States
April 11 (GMT) 30003 new cases and 1830 new deaths in the United States
April 10 (GMT) 33752 new cases and 2035 new deaths in the United States US reaches 500,000 cases.
April 9 (GMT) 33536 new cases and 1900 new deaths in the United States
April 8 (GMT) 31935 new cases and 1940 new deaths in the United States.
April 7 (GMT)interim 33331 new cases and 1970 new deaths in the United States. US reaches 400,000 cases.
April 6 (GMT) 30331 new cases and 1255 new deaths in the United States
April 5 (GMT) 25316 new cases and 1165 new deaths in the United States.
April 4 (GMT) 34196 new cases and 1331 new deaths in the United States US reaches 300,000 cases.
April 3 (GMT) 32284 new cases and 1321 new deaths in the United States
April 2 (GMT) 29874 new cases and 968 new deaths in the United States
April 1 (GMT) alert 26473 new cases and 1049 new deaths in the United States US reaches 200,000 cases
March 31 (GMT) 24742 new cases and 912 new deaths in the United States
March 30 (GMT) 20297 new cases and 558 new deaths in the United States
March 29 (GMT) 19913 new cases and 362 new deaths in the United States
March 28 (GMT) 19452 new cases and 525 new deaths in the United States
March 27 (GMT) alert 18691 new cases and 401 new deaths in the United States US total reaches 100,000 cases.
The criterion being used for recovery is simply cases a month old that didn't go into the deaths category. Hence the 'recovered' number being at zero for so long, then jumping. It's falling gradually now because the number of cases a month ago is a growing number. Using a ratio of total deaths (day x) / total cases (day x-10) has consistently given a result ~8-9% throughout the outbreak, and is probably the best available estimate of the outcomes (at least in the subset of cases that are confirmed).
[This message has been edited by D B Cooper (edited 04-21-2020).]
Maryjane, when do you believe is the appropriate time to open back up?
No attack, honest question.
Beyond my paygrade. Way better minds than mine are pondering the same question. But, definitely to be left up to the governors and legislatures of each state, and maybe even in metro areas, left up to the mayors. Many rural areas could probably open up now, with some restrictions on large gatherings. I know how people are, and as soon as an area 'opens back up' they will go back to the old ways, especially in bars, clubs, social gatherings and many eateries. For the next few months, I would think a 'new' normal will have to be established and practiced until we see how things go. I would like to see manufacturing open back up pretty quickly, smaller goods and services businesses as well. Big 3 Auto and their supply chain I would like to see go back to work in May early June with some close monitoring of how many sick folks are coming in to work each day. There are over a million restaurants in the US and about 15 million employees. The last #s I saw on that sector was over 1/2 are out of work right now and they may have to make some changes in seating, # of customers inside at any given time frame and/or insist every customer use hand sanitizer when entering and leaving, but if they do it right, a lot of those can go back to work in most towns PDQ..I hope. They 'the minds' are going to have to do some really close monitoring going forward to see what works and what does not as far as infection rates look like. Parks/recreation can probably open to a big degree now, as long as people don't act stupid.
A big question is going to be in plants like the meat processors up in the midwest. If we don't see some quick progress in those, we are going to see some negative effects on the consumer end of things in the way of shortages in beef and pork, maybe poultry as well. The companies themselves want to open up..didn't want to close to begin with but the employees pretty much forced them too. Contrary to what a lot of people believe, there are very few of those processing plants in the US anymore as mergers and buyouts have grouped all the small and medium plants into the giants. Tyson, National Beef, ConAgra, JBS, Smithfield, Perdue, Sysco, Sanderson Farms, Hormel are the big ones. They are the bottleneck in the supply chain. Some still running, some not. As both a small beef producer and as a consumer, it affects me directly just as it does most people and it will likely get worse for all consumers if things don't improve.
The criterion being used for recovery is simply cases a month old that didn't go into the deaths category. Hence the 'recovered' number being at zero for so long, then jumping. It's falling gradually now because the number of cases a month ago is a growing number. Using a ratio of total deaths (day x) / total cases (day x-10) has consistently given a result ~8-9% throughout the outbreak, and is probably the best available estimate of the outcomes (at least in the subset of cases that are confirmed).
Which doesn't take in to account the many who never had any symptoms at all. There is a network I believe of 14 states and 27 urban areas that CDC/CTSE monitors more closely than others and collected #s on hospitilazations & those are driving the decision making process on a national level . California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah.
How and why they chose those particular 14, I'm not sure.
Which doesn't take in to account the many who never had any symptoms at all. There is a network I believe of 14 states and 27 urban areas that CDC/CTSE monitors more closely than others and collected #s on hospitilazations & those are driving the decision making process on a national level . California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah.
How and why they chose those particular 14, I'm not sure.
Nope, it only gives a decent gauge of what's going on in that tip of the iceberg that we have halfway solid data on. But I would suggest that an improvement over time in that measure would indicate improvement in treatment effectiveness, rather than just maturation of the case data itself, which is what we see in their percentages of cases with an outcome. That's all I was getting at.
KEY FACTS *With 368 patient records from Veterans Health Administration analyzed, the Associated Press reported that the study is the largest look at the use of hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin, an antibiotic.
*The records of three roughly equal groups were examined—those given hydroxychloroquine alone, those given hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, and those who received neither drug.
*About 28% of patients given hydroxychloroquine plus usual care died, compared to 22% who received the drug plus azithromycin.
*About 11% of those who received neither drug passed away, but when the researchers controlled for other factors, they concluded this represented a similar risk to the group that received the combination of the two drugs, but that “the risk of death from any cause was higher” among those who took hydroxychloroquine alone.
*Hydroxychloroquine made no difference in patients’ needs for ventilators, in combination or alone, according to the study.
“These findings highlight the importance of awaiting the results of ongoing prospective, randomized, controlled studies before widespread adoption of these drugs,” the researchers wrote.
CRUCIAL QUOTE “I think we’re all rather underwhelmed” at what’s been seen in patients who tried hydroxychloroquine, University of Madison infection control director Nasia Safdar told the AP. “But now I think that people have realized we don’t know if it works or not.”
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 04-22-2020).]
Texas, it looks like, will officially' 're-open' any closed retail businesses to @ least 25% seating capacities beginning in 3 days. Some counties, thelimit will be 50%, if the cases within that county is smaller. Other than being able to eat inside restaurants, we probably won't notice much difference where I live. With the exception of schools, theaters, museums and restaurants, (and the o&g sector) much of Texas has been operating at about 75% the whole time. It is not an order, it is a relaxing of a previous protocol, and in the end, the decision is left up to the individual business or franchise. Gov is not forcing anyone to open up more than already, but the new rules supersede local and county rules. Texas currently has: 25,516total cases 672 deaths 13,674active cases with 1,682 hospitalized My county now has 9 cases zero deaths. The county (county line 6 miles away) where I do most of my shopping and other business, has 38 cases zero fatalities, but less than 40 miles south of me, Harris county has 5,826 cases with 98 deaths. I'll be watching the stats closely the next few weeks to see if cases/fatalities/hospitializations go up,down or remain about the same.
quote
Governor Greg Abbott has announced he will let his previous stay-at-home order expire Thursday, along with new plans to reopen businesses starting this week.
Abbott at a press conference this (Monday) afternoon announced the first phase of his plans to lift restrictions on businesses. Starting Friday, all retail stores, restaurants, movie theaters, malls, libraries, and museums can reopen at 25 percent occupancy. Counties with five or fewer confirmed cases will be allowed to reopen those facilities at 50 percent capacity.
Abbott said this will allow businesses to open in a way that uses safe standards for them, their employees, and their customers. He noted that businesses are not required to reopen, and can remain closed if they choose to. He said businesses that do not abide by the occupancy instructions are subject to lose their business license.
Also included in the order are churches and places of worship, which Abbott said can hold expanded services starting Friday. Outdoor sports can also resume, provided they do not involve more than four participants at any given time. In addition, licensed health care professionals will be allowed to reopen their businesses, but licensed hospitals will need to keep 15 percent of their capacity reserved for COVID-19 patients.
Businesses not included in Abbott’s order are barber shops, hair salons, bars, clubs, and gyms. He said he hopes that those businesses can reopen by mid-May.
Abbott said the most important element of this first phase is protecting those most vulnerable, so the state will continue to emphasize remaining at home if at all possible. He said citizens will still be strongly encouraged—but not required—to wear masks. He said the state will also redouble its efforts to protect seniors in nursing homes and senior living centers.
If the spread of the virus is contained, Abbott said the state will move around May 18th to phase two, which will expand the occupancy limit to 50 percent. He said further increases will happen as long as the virus remains contained and there is no “flare-up”.
Abbott also announced that Texas has the third most recovered COVID-19 cases of any state in the nation, saying confirmed cases have been “on the decline” for the past 17 days and the state’s hospitalization rate has held steady. He added the number of recoveries in Texas will soon exceed the number of active cases.
The lawyers' offices are still open, the florists are still open, the donut shops are still open, the meat markets are still open, the machine shops are still open, the auto parts stores are still open, the plumbers are still open, the new and used tire shops are still open, the feed stores are still open, the livestock sale barns are still open, the bait tackle shops are still open, New and used car/truck dealerships are open, the liquor stores are still open, the local and big drug stores are still open, the salvage metal places are still open, the motorcycle/RTV sales and repair shops are still open, the flea markets are still open, the lawn mower sales and lawn equipment repair shops are still open, the gas station/convienence stores are all still open, the propane places are still open, the banks are still open, the plant nurseries are still open, all the Tractor Supply franchises are still open, the boot and western wear places are still open, the laundramats are still open, the little local hardware stores are still open (I was in one today) the fabric and quilt shop is still open, Post offices and UPS dropoff are still open, ...
some have restrictions on how many customers can be inside at one time but they're still open. All the restaurants, big and little are still open but are take out only, the gun ranges and gunshops are still open, Fastenal is still open, welding shop is open and doing a lot of business, quick oil change places are all still open, both dry cleaners here are still open.
Only places I know for sure that are actually closed around here are the bars, inside movie theater, barber shops and womens nail/hair salons*. Each of those 4 require close personal contact or crowds in order to function. Verizon phonestore is closed but the ATT ph store is still open. (Verizon closed by choice, not by govt order), land title and surveyor offices are still open. Real estate agents are all still open, the insurance offices are all still open, veterinarians are still open, the sawmills are still open. *I did notice that there were women inside one of the nail salons getting her nails done, but that appeared to be an exception..maybe 'by appointment only' ?
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 04-28-2020).]
Adhere to the CDC guidelines for Reopening. Starting with 14 days of uninterrupted decline in the number of (new?) Covid-19 hospitalizations as one of the preconditions for Reopening.
Look within the construction and manufacturing sectors for the first businesses to Reopen. There are lots of workers that can be reactivated, and the kinds of work and work settings are generally compatible with social distancing and other on-the-job virus mitigation and containment practices. More so than in other sectors such as retail and restaurants.
Condition Green... unless these conditions are being observed, Reopening should not proceed, or if it's already underway, needs to be reevaluated:
Hospital utilization not to exceed 70 percent, respecting the other 30 percent as surge capacity. (Especially important as seasonal influenza starts up again in 4Q 2020.)
Rate of Transmission not to exceed 1.1 and preferably, less than 1.
The hospital utilization criteria is just as important for areas of low population density as it is for densely populated cities and suburbs.
Taken from the New York State Governor's briefing earlier today.
[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 04-28-2020).]
Look within the construction and manufacturing sectors for the first businesses to Reopen.
I suppose that depends on how many declining jobs there have been in those 2 sectors. Manufacturing always gets a lot of media attention but for many regions and states, it is almost insignificant in job totality and in change and % of the unemployment rate. This is NY, according to the most recent BoL statistics. Note that the change in NY's Manufacturing workforce is less than a 1% decrease and the construction trades actually show not quite a 1% increase : https://www.bls.gov/regions...sey/new_york.htm#eag
The leisure/hospitality/financial and Trade-Transports-Utility sectors are the big decliners for NY state.
The only negative numbers (no growth) in Tx are in Mining/Logging with almost all of that from oil and gas sector and it's not related in any significant amount to Covid-19.
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 04-28-2020).]
Cuomo pointed to a number (46,000) for Construction and Manufacturing jobs in or close to New York City. I guess that was BV? Before Virus?
Whatever.
It's probably more important that, just the other day, Cuomo included a line from Gibbon, Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire in his daily briefing. He rendered the quotation, if memory serves me, thusly:
quote
When the freedom they wanted the most was freedom from responsibility, they ceased to be free.
I thought that was a reference to the Romans, but I just checked it out. It was the Athenians.
Cuomo pointed to a number (46,000) for Construction and Manufacturing jobs in or close to New York City. I guess that was BV? Before Virus?
Pointed to it in what way? 46,000 jobs total? 46,000 jobs lost? In what context was he using it? Where did that number come from? The BoL stats show that NY State had 437,300 working in manufacturing in Dec '19, 437,900 in January 2020, 438,800 in Feb, 437,600 working in the same sector in Mar 2020. I suspect it did drop in April, but still an insignificant stat without any context associated with it. Year to year shows only -0.8% change.
No worse for NYC itself:
quote
The city’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.4 percent in March 2020, an increase of 1.0 percent from February and an uptick of 0.1 percent from March 2019.
Originally posted by maryjane: 46,000 jobs total? 46,000 jobs lost? In what context was he using it? Where did that number come from?
That was from Governor Cuomo's COVID-19 Briefing of Tuesday, April 28, and I found a transcript. This is the moment when he enumerated that number:
quote
Today we’re announcing an advisory board that is made up of statewide business leaders, academic leaders, civic leaders who’s advising us on just this, and they have been for weeks, and I want to thank them very much. Manufacturing [and] construction as the first phase businesses, that’s 46,000 jobs in a place like central New York. So, it’s a major employer. And, these are businesses that can adapt to the new normal, in terms of their employees, in terms of the places of business, and in terms of the processes that they put in place.
I read him as saying that as New York State proceeds with its Phase One level of reopening the economy, he "sees" 46,000 people going back to work--or in some cases (I guess) landing a job but maybe not returning to the same work that they had before the shutdown. But 46,000 people working in the Manufacturing and Construction sector during Phase One. Whether that's 46,000 total, or 46,000 additional and above some number of people in this sector that are already working now because they are Essential and were not stopped by the shutdown... can't say. I guess it's kind of a moot point, or a distinction without a difference, or a diff...
And "central New York"..? I guess that's New York City and some of the surrounding area.
Is there a "Cuomo Whisperer" in the house?
[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 04-29-2020).]
Might be an excellent time for smokers to consider switching to a nicotine patch!
How best to allow the smoke (and/or the actual cigarette) free passage through the mask while at the same time preventing the virus from doing so....
Hmmm... I think just using a nicotine patch would be a whole lot easier. 
