Been busy with my farm stuff, plus had a major malfunction with 1 of my shop overhead door springs. It went
and scared the crap out of me about the time I got the door 1/2 way up...had to replace both springs. Been fishing some and cutting up some fallen limbs and a tree that had fallen, got hung in another tree then finally fell accross my pond dam. (YAYY!!)
Been fishing some and cutting up some fallen limbs and a tree that had fallen, got hung in another tree then finally fell accross my pond dam. (YAYY!!)
Someone oughta do something about all those damn trees...….. Where's the beavers when you need them.
Updates May 5: 24,798 new cases and 2,350 new deaths in the United States.
134,475 deaths by August 4 (total cumulative count, with uncertainty range from 95,092 to 242,890 deaths) now projected in the USA by Dr. Murray and researchers in Washington state in the COVID-19 forecasting model by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) used by the US Government. [view here] The initial model, released on March 26 and online until the beginning of May, was projecting 81,766 deaths by the same date (with uncertainty range from 49,431 to 136,401) [view archived page] More information on the update and the new forecasting model implemented on May 4 are explained here The institute wrote that the revisions reflected “rising mobility in most U.S. states as well as the easing of social distancing measures expected in 31 states by May 11, indicating that growing contacts among people will promote transmission of the coronavirus” [source]
Can't be true. Everyone knows corona virus is the same thing as the flu (and no worse than flu) and Coronavirus only affects old people with pre-existing conditions
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 05-07-2020).]
Updates May 10 (GMT) 20,329 new cases and 750 new deaths in the United States Lowest number of new cases and lowest number of new deaths since the end of March
Regents Professor Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
As a guest on the Monday night edition of "The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell", Dr. Osterholm reminds prospective SARS-CoV-2 virus replication centers nationwide--that's you and me and everyone else in this nation--that "It's not how fast you test, it's how you test fast."
Either of these Internet page links provides this brief video content:
Santa Clara County surrounds the city of San Jose and includes a large swath of California's "Silicon Valley." There are almost 2 million residents. Santa Clara County Health Officer Dr. Sara Cody was among the first in the nation to push for "stay at home" or "shelter in place" interpretations of "social distancing" as a response to the strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that started to be detected in the United States during 1Q 2020.
I just stumbled upon this in the San Jose Mercury News online.
quote
Stanford University researchers have moderated their controversial estimate of how many people in Santa Clara County were infected by the COVID-19 virus by early April — but stand by their conclusion that the illness was much more widespread than anyone knew.
In a revised analysis of a startling study published last month, they now estimate that 2.8% of Santa Clara residents were previously infected by the virus but didn’t know it.
That implies that the county had up to 54,000 infections — many more than the 1,000 confirmed cases in the county [that were being reported] at the time.
quote
If true, it means that the large majority of people [in Santa Clara County] who contracted COVID-19 [were infected with the virus] in the early days of the pandemic have recovered without ever knowing they were infected. With so many undetected infections, it also means that the death rate is lower than presumed.
The team’s initial study was slightly higher, placing the estimate of infected residents between 2.5% to 4.15%, which suggested up to 81,000 infections.
That study, the first of its type in the nation, incited a fierce debate over the paper’s methodology, with statisticians taking to Twitter to debate sampling methods and test reliability.
That's part of a longer report.
"Coronavirus: Revised Stanford estimate says Santa Clara County had 54 times more cases than we knew about"
quote
After criticism, the researchers corrected some of the statistical imperfections with new data and analyses
Two comments about that table of mortality numbers:
First, it would appear to be comparing the entire 24 months of 2017 and 2018 to just the most recent two or two and a half months since Covid-19 deaths were being recorded here in the U.S. in any numbers.
And second, the Covid-19 deaths have been during a time of statewide lockdowns to various degrees. The social distancing and "stay at home" or "shelter in place" declarations that have been in effect, across or within various states that altogether, add up to most of the people in this country.
The deaths from influenza and pneumonia that are side by side in that table were not affected by any social distancing (that I'm aware of.)
[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 05-12-2020).]
I suspect the 2017-2018 flu season was chosen for a reason.
By ASSOCIATED PRESS SEPTEMBER 26, 2018
CDC:50,000- 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S., highest death toll in 40 years
CDC actually says 2017-2018 death from flu in the US was 61,099. 2018-2019 death toll from flu was 34,157, but that isn't as sensationalistic as using the worst flu season.
(you can check every season from 2010 to 2019 here )
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 05-12-2020).]
Roger that. And when I brought up these SARS-CoV-2 statewide and municipal lockdowns and social distancing, I want to highlight the difference in air travel.
I am not about to look up the numbers at this minute, but aren't we talking about passenger air travel and numbers of flights that are just 10 percent, compared to 2017 and 2018? International and within the United States?
I think that is likely HUGE in terms of how the disease experts are looking at the SARS-CoV-2 statistics, as far as infections, hospitalizations and deaths.
There's no basis for comparison with those numbers.
"It's not how fast you test, it's how you test fast."
[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 05-17-2020).]
To me, Texas is running behind the curve on testing. 29 million population here and so far, the State dashboard says they have tested only 678,471 people. Public tests 22,378 Private Labs 656,093
My county now has 12 active cases. Zero deaths. My state has 46,999 total cumulative Cases Reported 1,305 Fatalities 26,601 estimated Recovered An Estimated 19,093 active cases.
Texas began relaxing their distancing and lockdown protocols on May 1 or approx 2 weeks ago.
Putting a thumb on the scales: Seasonal influenza deaths being overestimated and Covid-19 deaths, underestimated.
quote
In a report published Thursday in the Journal of the American Medicine Association, Drs. Carlos del Rio and Jeremy Faust suggested that people were incorrectly using the flu-to-coronavirus comparison to downplay the severity and deadliness of COVID-19. . . .
That's the "over the counter" version. Here's the "prescription" version. Just a few (albeit, long) paragraphs and a list of sources and references.
Assessment of Deaths From COVID-19 and From Seasonal Influenza Jeremy Samuel Faust (MD, MS) and Carlos del Rio (MD) for the Journal of the AMA (JAMA) for Internal Medicine; May 14, 2020. https://jamanetwork.com/j ou...=tfl&utm_term=051420
[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 05-18-2020).]
You will never get the conspiracy theorists/deniers to understand or accept any of that Rinselberg.
Months back, I posted a quote from CDC that very plainly explained what the links you posted coroborated, and in fact, CDC stated that in any given year, there are relatively few mortality reports that said the deceased actually died form the flu. Most simply say 'respiratory failure from flu like illness' and up to a year later, CDC extrapolates a number for total deaths, based not on deaths, but on the number of reported flu cases.
I do very much hope this all fades and the virus becomes a minor problem and this thread equally fades into obscurity.
My initial interest in the virus and reason for starting the thread is stems from my long held interest in Asia and the fact that China did go public with the virus, albeit late and not entirely transparently. For China to even tell/admit to the world that they have an internal problem is a rare occurrence. I very much suspected then, that this was more than 'just a flu'.
"Shutdowns prevented 60 million coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds"
quote
Shutdown orders prevented about 60 million novel coronavirus infections in the United States and 285 million in China, according to a research study published Monday that examined how stay-at-home orders and other restrictions limited the spread of the contagion.
A separate study from epidemiologists at Imperial College London estimated the shutdowns saved about 3.1 million lives in 11 European countries, including 500,000 in the United Kingdom, and dropped infection rates by an average of 82 percent, sufficient to drive the contagion well below epidemic levels.
The two reports, published simultaneously Monday in the journal Nature, used completely different methods to reach similar conclusions. They suggest that the aggressive and unprecedented shutdowns, which caused massive economic disruptions and job losses, were effective at halting the exponential spread of the novel coronavirus.
The first of the two reports described in the Washington Post has been accepted for publication in the professional science journal Nature. Odds are, you neither especially like or dislike "Nature." https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8
MSNBC's Rachel Maddow interviewed one of the authors and researchers, This is YouTube video content. It's two brief video segments. You don't like Rachel Maddow, but you're usually a sucker for online video content, if it's brief. https://youtu.be/1uxjmsyU2NE https://youtu.be/xITuamBe3KU
------------------ Astronomy says we will find a coded signal from outer space. Then we'll KNOW that life exists there, for coded signals aren't by chance.
Biology says there are coded genetic signals in every cell, but we KNOW that no intelligence created life.
I'm the original owner of a white ' 84 2M4 purchased Dec 10, 1983 from Pontiac. Always garaged, no rust, 4-wheel drifts are fun!
------------------ Astronomy says we will find a coded signal from outer space. Then we'll KNOW that life exists there, for coded signals aren't by chance.
Biology says there are coded genetic signals in every cell, but we KNOW that no intelligence created life.
I'm the original owner of a white ' 84 2M4 purchased Dec 10, 1983 from Pontiac. Always garaged, no rust, 4-wheel drifts are fun!
Brought this back for one reason. Somewhere in these pages (I can't find it easily) IMSA GT said he was pretty sure he had Covid back in Dec 2019. I had doubts about it, but this news may prove me in error.
The new coronavirus was circulating in Italy since September 2019, a study by the National Cancer Institute (INT) of the Italian city of Milan shows, signaling that Covid-19 might have spread beyond China earlier than previously thought.
The World Health Organization has said the new coronavirus and Covid-19, the respiratory disease it causes, were unknown before the outbreak was first reported in Wuhan, in central China, in December.
Italy’s first Covid-19 patient was detected on Feb. 21 in a little town near Milan, in the northern region of Lombardy.
But the Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show that 11.6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020, had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February.
A further specific SARS-CoV-2 antibodies test was carried out by the University of Siena for the same research titled “Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the pre-pandemic period in Italy”.
It showed that four cases dated back to the first week of October were also positive for antibodies neutralizing the virus, meaning they had got infected in September, Giovanni Apolone, a co-author of the study, told Reuters.
“This is the main finding: people with no symptoms not only were positive after the serological tests but had also antibodies able to kill the virus,” Apolone said.
“It means that the new coronavirus can circulate among the population for long and with a low rate of lethality not because it is disappearing but only to surge again,” he added.
Italian researchers told Reuters in March that they reported a higher than usual number of cases of severe pneumonia and flu in Lombardy in the last quarter of 2019 in a sign that the new coronavirus might have circulated earlier than previously thought.
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 11-16-2020).]
I suspect the 2019 vaping lung disease outbreak was actually covid virus, the timing is right and nobody ever bothered explaining why after years of those things being around the disease suddenly popped up out of nowhere.
Except there has never been a virus directly associated with EVALI and the 2 illnesses are completely different in that one (EVALI) is damage caused by an injury (tho may increase the ability of the other (Covid) to spread), but results in no specific antibodies or other imuneresponse like Covid does because EVALI is chemical in nature and not viral, bacterial, or animal. Correlation of a timeline does not equal causation.
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 11-16-2020).]
100,000 to 200,000 Americans are projected to die from this virus.
Patrick, Donald, and Ronald have things under control at their end. Let them speak. Never silence those that know so much. Like teachers they are. We need them, so be kind.
Sorry that the lot of you are butt hurt about this President. My feelings are not affected by yours. Carry on though.
Stay safe. Family, Friends, neighbors...
Edit:
TK's post was from March, and basically those numbers are about where we are... I have an issue with the specifics of classifying COVID deaths since co-morbities aren't considered key in the public perception.
Actual COVID death is very small and unremarkable.
I say this as someone who is recovering from it this week... and masks did not stop it for me.
[This message has been edited by USFiero (edited 11-17-2020).]
The following sectors are required to close or remain closed for all operations:
Indoor and outdoor playgrounds Indoor recreational facilities Hair salons and barbershops Personal care services Museums, zoos, and aquariums Movie theaters Wineries Bars, breweries, and distilleries Family entertainment centers Cardrooms and satellite wagering Limited services as defined by the state Live audience sports Amusement parks
The following sectors will have additional modifications in addition to 100% masking and physical distancing:
Outdoor recreational facilities: Allow outdoor operation only without any food, drink or alcohol sales. Additionally, overnight stays for recreational visits at campgrounds will not be permitted. Retail: Allow indoor operation at 20% capacity with entrance metering and no eating or drinking in the stores. Additionally, special hours should be instituted for seniors and others with chronic conditions or compromised immune systems. Shopping centers: Allow indoor operation at 20% capacity with entrance metering and no eating or drinking in the stores and all common areas closed. Additionally, special hours should be instituted for seniors and others with chronic conditions or compromised immune systems. Hotels and lodging: Allow to open for critical infrastructure support only. Restaurants: Allow only for take-out, pick-up, or delivery. Offices: Allow remote only except for critical infrastructure sectors where remote working is not possible. Places of worship and political expression: Allow outdoor services only. Entertainment production including professional sports: Allow operation without live audiences. Additionally, testing protocol and “bubbles” are highly encouraged.
100,000 to 200,000 Americans are projected to die from this virus.
Patrick, Donald, and Ronald have things under control at their end. Let them speak. Never silence those that know so much. Like teachers they are. We need them, so be kind.
Sorry that the lot of you are butt hurt about this President. My feelings are not affected by yours. Carry on though.
quote
Originally posted by USFiero exactly three weeks ago:
TK's post was from March, and basically those numbers are about where we are...
Actual COVID death is very small and unremarkable.
The US is now at 293,334 deaths... and climbing. Looks like the projections flogged by "TK" (and apparently agreed with by USFiero) were off by a bit. And this thing is far from over.
OK, there are a few covid threads so I don't remember them all or what I posted in them,..sorry if this is the wrong thread,...but: I had said my employer has had a change of strategy as far as masks go. This change is at least the 3rd so far. The last change was to move away from the more expensive N95 to cheaper surgical masks, well that hasn't happened yet. We still get issued the Green N95 masks and are mandated to wear them at ALL times. Yesterday, I was summoned to go test for the proper fit of the N95 mask that has been issued to me for a couple of months. First I was trained on the proper use and instalation of the mask....... I was told that I failed because I was unable to fit the mask without fogging up my glasses. So the alternative to this N95 mask is "on order" and will be issued to me as soon as it comes in. So what is this mask? Well, it looks like this,..(but may be different,...I do not have it yet). https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-52613399 Looks fun to me. I am expected to wear this every day for a minimum of 8 hours a day. Keep in mind that I can be forced to work an extra 8 hour shift at any time. 16 hours in this thing,....
[This message has been edited by Rickady88GT (edited 12-08-2020).]
OK, there are a few covid threads so I don't remember them all or what I posted in them,..sorry if this is the wrong thread,...but: I had said my employer has had a change of strategy as far as masks go. This change is at least the 3rd so far. The last change was to move away from the more expensive N95 to cheaper surgical masks, well that hasn't happened yet. We still get issued the Green N95 masks and are mandated to wear them at ALL times. Yesterday, I was summoned to go test for the proper fit of the N95 mask that has been issued to me for a couple of months. First I was trained on the proper use and instalation of the mask....... I was told that I failed because I was unable to fit the mask without fogging up my glasses. So the alternative to this N95 mask is "on order" and will be issued to me as soon as it comes in. So what is this mask? Well, it looks like this,..(but may be different,...I do not have it yet). https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-52613399 Looks fun to me. I am expected to wear this every day for a minimum of 8 hours a day. Keep in mind that I can be forced to work an extra 8 hour shift at any time. 16 hours in this thing,....
This one?
I've worn something similar when working in radiation remediation back in tha 1980s. They aren't bad. Worked one job for 62 days straight, 8-12-16 hrs per day.
The mask thing wasn't too bad, but the suit, with it's duct tape to our rubber boots and rubber gloves was pretty bad..
I'm surprised your employer hasn't requisitioned M50 M 54 Avon CBRN masks for you.
Listen, i recognize you as intelligent. You have/are spending your life doing what only a few even get to dream about.
And knowing all that, even you can see the fallacy of the logic you express(ed) above. Nothing personal, just sayin'.
EDIT: I changed "Dude" to "Listen". It seemed less "stoner'y".
I forgot the /S for sarcasm. The same argument that is being made for masks must be used with any other communicable disease that may be spread by human to human transmission. HIV, cold, flu, whatever. If it might kill the old folks then by golly you have an obligation to stop whatever you normally do and stay at home, wear a mask, take a shot, wear a condom, whatever. It's up to you to protect everyone else from you.
Where does it stop? At what point do you tell the government to stay out of your business and for people to protect themselves? For some it's never, they would rather the gov tell them what to do. Then any failure is the gov fault, not theirs.
Originally posted by Hudini: Where does it stop? At what point do you tell the government to stay out of your business and for people to protect themselves?
DING!DING!DING!DING! TELL'EM' WHAT HE'S WON, JIM!!!!
Seriously, from bible to bedlam, that is indeed the eternal question.
Our forefathers drew a line...as scary as that may seem in modern times, that really always has been the eternal question.
"Where do you stop (what lines do you draw) letting people tell you what to do?"
P.S. Don't ask me anything about this. It's the one thing i will effn' lose it on...
[This message has been edited by Boondawg (edited 12-09-2020).]
Specifically referring to a vaccine it would seem that if you and I choose to take the vaccine then it doesn't matter what others do, we will be protected from them. No need for the government to enforce any draconian rules.
