That would be true if we actually had knowledge of the mortality rate. Right now it is an assumed rate. And part of the assumptions is knowing how many people actually have the disease and how many actually die of the disease. We don't know the actual number of people who have the disease. And we don't know how many will die of the disease, because it is too early. So anything we have now is just speculation.
Judging by the content of your posts on this subject, I'm inclined to believe that you are needlessly scaring yourself.
During the SARS coronavirus outbreak the United States had only 5 verified cases of human infection.
During the MERS coronavirus outbreak the United States had only 2 verified cases of human infection.
During the Asian "bird flu" coronavirus outbreak the United States had ZERO verified cases of human infection
Your odds of being seriously injured in a car crash, over the span of your entire life, are somewhere in between 1 in 50 and 1 in 100.
That's many orders of magnitude higher probability than you ever getting the current nCoV.
Worry about the things that are more likely to happen to you rather than the things that are statistically closer to impossible.
[This message has been edited by randye (edited 02-04-2020).]
Some things are very polite. There isn't much physical violence like murder. Some things done routinely here would get your butt shot in the US. People rush to be the first in line, or grab the seat first, or use the on ramp to get ahead of one or two cars during a traffic jam. I've seen people completely block the elevator door trying to get in so the people on the elevator can't get out. Most of this I attribute to an overcrowded society where you either learn to compete or get stepped on.
The strangest behavior is the lack of Good Samaritan actions. If you get hit by a car and are lying there bleeding, no one will help you. You will get a big crowd just standing around looking at you. The reason is actually pretty simple and it involves money. If you help someone you now become part of the problem. You can be required to pay the hospital bills as well as being sued for money by the very person you helped. Therefore no one helps. It's not about compassion, it's about money.
There was a famous story in Beijing where a Chinese girl jumped into a lake to kill herself. As she was flailing around a crowd gathered to watch. Finally someone jumped in to save her. It was an American. Not one single Chinese dared try to help.
Newest information. A large jump today in total cases and in deaths.
"By the end of Monday, more than 20,000 cases and 425 deaths had been reported in China - an increase of more than 3,000 confirmed cases in a single day."
February 04, 2020 Asymptomatic transmission of the novel coronavirus in Germany was called into doubt on Monday when an article appeared to question the research behind it.
Science magazine detailed errors in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) research letter published last Thursday. The letter reported that asymptomatic transmission of novel coronavirus occurred in Bavaria, Germany, when several co-workers of an asymptomatic woman traveling from China contracted the virus.
The letter, and several media reports, said that the woman wasn't sick when she was in Germany and only began to feel ill on the plane ride home. Turns out that wasn't quite true.
Researchers who wrote the NEJM letter did not speak to the woman herself, according to Science. But after she spoke to officials from the Robert Koch Institute, Germany's public health agency, and Bavarian officials, she said that she "felt tired, suffered from muscle pain," and took fever-lowering medication while in Germany.
While Germany's health agency spokespeople would only confirm that the woman had symptoms, the Robert Koch Institute has submitted a letter to NEJM, presumably to correct the record.
China has claimed to have data showing asymptomatic transmission occurring within the country, but U.S. health officials previously said that they did not have enough data to make that claim. That appeared to change after the publication of the NEJM letter.
Indeed, asymptomatic transmission outside China was alluded to when the U.S. declared a public health emergency for novel coronavirus on Friday. And on Saturday, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported "third-generation" transmission of the virus in Germany.
Some things are very polite. There isn't much physical violence like murder. Some things done routinely here would get your butt shot in the US. People rush to be the first in line, or grab the seat first, or use the on ramp to get ahead of one or two cars during a traffic jam. I've seen people completely block the elevator door trying to get in so the people on the elevator can't get out. Most of this I attribute to an overcrowded society where you either learn to compete or get stepped on.
The strangest behavior is the lack of Good Samaritan actions. If you get hit by a car and are lying there bleeding, no one will help you. You will get a big crowd just standing around looking at you. The reason is actually pretty simple and it involves money. If you help someone you now become part of the problem. You can be required to pay the hospital bills as well as being sued for money by the very person you helped. Therefore no one helps. It's not about compassion, it's about money.
There was a famous story in Beijing where a Chinese girl jumped into a lake to kill herself. As she was flailing around a crowd gathered to watch. Finally someone jumped in to save her. It was an American. Not one single Chinese dared try to help.
There is a large population of Chinese here in CA. They act the same way in the break room and never make coffee. Finally had enough and lost my cool and its only better because they avoid me now. Perhaps thats not a bad thing.
I'm working from home for the rest of this week and will play next week by ear. Or more on point by nose.
Emphasis on 'confirmed'. I would tend to add the word 'known' to that.
I find this an interesting, but not really 'frightening discussion.
I find it interesting also. And am not frightened as someone seems to contend. I am just posting what I have seen since this is going to affect the world whether it peters out or it continues on. The world economy is already taking a huge hit. It is not just the medical part of it that has an effect.
maryjane, I too have used the Tyvek suits for use in the nuclear industry. There is not much there, there.
On the ability of the virus to transmit before the patient shows signs, that would be great news. Anything that can make it easier to control is great. It is still my hope that it can be contained in China, with the obvious minor excursions outside of China.
And to think all he did was start singing My Corona
And here we have our "artist" in all his glory. Oh, please watch this. Have everyone watch this. Like a form of schooling, we should have this as a what not to do moment.
Breakdown... 28 year old tells over 200 on plane that he just came from Wuhan. Arrested. Reporter shows up at parents home, where said 28 year old lives, and conducts an impromptu interview. Dad comes in on left. 28 year old, stay at home "artist" has to explain his front porch company.
Watching the 28 year old stay at home artist perform his "viral video" on board a seated plane gives me no definitive answer to your question. An opinion is that the artist feels entitled. The son already was quick to explain that someone else is the cause of being on the front porch. I see a very long history of this acceptable redundancy in this house hold. Even from this very little I viewed. His viral video attempt was not his first, and even though he is sorry for upsetting over 200 on the plane, he is not sorry in the least, and feels jaded by how he is being treated for only making a video.
I have more, but my Freudian slip got caught in my bike chain.
When you get past your little world. And look past it, you'll see why. people still live at home rent is crazy, Cost to get to your job is nuts, car/insurance/etc Every bills forced on them that they can't afford, like health insurance. Here unless you want to live in a ghetto, it is 1200 for a studio / 1400 and up for a tiny 1 bed, 1800-2400 for a 2 bed. Then you need f/l/s AND references from your last landlord, and pass a credit check. Most younger folks don't have any credit . but have a high income to debt ratio (student loans) so the credit rating is in the crapper. So, just to move out , you need 4500.00 for f/l/s references that you'll not have because you've never rented before, and a low credit rating. So no one will rent to you. other than maybe in DA HOOD (ghetto). This is reality today. Then they have nothing to put in the unit. and because they are on the botton rails of the career ladder, can't swing , the rent and all the other bills that go with that, the student loans, the car bills to get to their job.
The average wage is $15-$17/hr, with about 25% source deductions. Thats $1800-$2040/mo take home.
You are NOT getting a place to live in there on a regular job.
I just dont understand why people insist on staying.
Now add the government forced on you ACA bill, and student loan bills. And that most places are jobs but part time. most jobs here are 12.00 an hour, 13 if you do overnight to start. You're not paying that 1200.00 studio apartment rent on that
Gotta get out of the big cities. 1200 for an apartment is too much. Fast food pays 12 bucks in most towns. Though I'm sure things vary in places.
Also just to note its easier for couples to own a home than one person, the design for life is to meet someone get married and get a home and support eachother, forever. LIve within means, etc. Should also be two supportive married loving parents to help one move out, around the age of adulthood. Society is failing and have gotten away from this.
Sure generalizations, but hey this is an internet forum.
Are we off topic?
The least one can do is vote for less taxes and more freedom.
Don't pay for a a degree that wont pay off.
..and don't get diseases from third world communist countries.
[This message has been edited by 2.5 (edited 02-05-2020).]
... And that most places are jobs but part time. most jobs here are 12.00 an hour, 13 if you do overnight to start. ...
I pay more than minimum wage, can offer you full time work, and do not require a drug test for employment. Where can I send you an application?
I pay bi-weekly. I keep track of time, location, and work performed through an app in which you are required to download. All work is above board, unless performed on my home. Then chicken wings and other festivities will be provided at no cost to the employee.
Gotta get out of the big cities. 1200 for an apartment is too much. Fast food pays 12 bucks in most towns. Though I'm sure things vary in places.
Also just to note its easier for couples to own a home than one person, the design for life is to meet someone get married and get a home and support eachother, forever. LIve within means, etc. Should also be two supportive married loving parents to help one move out, around the age of adulthood. Society is failing and have gotten away from this.
Sure generalizations, but hey this is an internet forum.
Are we off topic?
The least one can do is vote for less taxes and more freedom.
Don't pay for a a degree that wont pay off.
..and don't get diseases from third world communist countries.
moving away from city= higher rents. here. I'm 40-60 minutes from boston, 2 hours in daily rust "hour"traffic one way. go to father and rents go up not down It is cheaper to have a mortgage than pay rent as far as the monthly rent . 2 bed unit in a mid range town is 2400.00 That is a mortgage. My friend gets 1800 for a small 1 bedroom and 1400 for the studio. That is 2 hours from boston
------------------ TRUTH IS NOT AN INSULT,AND REALITY IS NOT AN ATTACK.
[This message has been edited by E.Furgal (edited 02-05-2020).]
That can happen. One may have to move even farther. Where I am mort payments on a 20 year old 4 bedroom 2 level house and 2 car garage is less than 2k mo, about 1 hour from the Twin Cities. Stuff is cheaper than that in Iowa and Wisconsin.
Plus where you are you probably you have to listen to that Boston accent.
[This message has been edited by 2.5 (edited 02-05-2020).]
Edit: I did note something strange on these figures. They recovery numbers seem extremely low in Hubei compared to their total number of cases, and since they are the epicenter of this virus and have been experiencing it longer you would think their recovery percentages would be higher. Wonder why?
[This message has been edited by MadMark (edited 02-05-2020).]
By the way, IF the data of that JH map is even close to correct the 564 deaths compared to the 27,619 confirmed cases means that the mortality rate for this virus is 2%
That is FAR LOWER than SARS, MERS and Asian "bird flu".
Just to help to continue to keep perspective on this, the CDC reported that 80,000 people in the U.S. died of corona virus influenza in 2017*
When you get past your little world. And look past it, you'll see why. people still live at home rent is crazy, Cost to get to your job is nuts, car/insurance/etc Every bills forced on them that they can't afford, like health insurance. Here unless you want to live in a ghetto, it is 1200 for a studio / 1400 and up for a tiny 1 bed, 1800-2400 for a 2 bed. Then you need f/l/s AND references from your last landlord, and pass a credit check. Most younger folks don't have any credit . but have a high income to debt ratio (student loans) so the credit rating is in the crapper. So, just to move out , you need 4500.00 for f/l/s references that you'll not have because you've never rented before, and a low credit rating. So no one will rent to you. other than maybe in DA HOOD (ghetto). This is reality today. Then they have nothing to put in the unit. and because they are on the botton rails of the career ladder, can't swing , the rent and all the other bills that go with that, the student loans, the car bills to get to their job.
That tho, is your own "little world". The average US rent for a 1 bedroom apt is $1216, which means 1/2 the 1 bedroom apts rented for less and 1/2 rented for more. How much more (or less) depends upon in which geographical location one chooses to live. Hopefully, they are wise enough to live somewhere they can afford rent or mortage payments. If they aren't I suppose they will have to live on the street, get Govt subsidy, or live under Mommy & Daddy's roof the rest of their lives.
https://www.umovefree.com/C...eland-apartments-tx/ I and wife lived in the Kirbywood apts in 2007 and 2008. Rent at that time for a 1 bedroom apt was $525 plus electric and water. I was making $17/hr at a Kubota farm tractor dealership. There were a lot of college kids living there, working nights as wait staff in local eateries.
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 02-05-2020).]
Whether the death rate is less than or more than SARS or the seasonal flu (or anything else) is a bit moot. As Mark has pointed out, the effect on just the economy has been huge already simply because this one now exists. However, if it is one of us, or one of our family members that gets it and dies, the issue ceases to be moot, just as it is not moot for those in the epicenter that already have it, or has a family member that has it. There is always "something" less fatal than the new bug that crops up..doesn't lessen the concern or attention and discussion the new one warrants.
Related..I traveled about 20 miles today to get my 6 month cardio echos and carotid ultrasound. This was done in a new medical facility that is pretty busy. Other than the usual little box by the door with a sign that said "Please take a mask if you have cold or flu symptoms" I saw nothing out of the ordinary. I saw no one wearing a mask the whole time I was there.
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 02-05-2020).]
One of the oddest things I've heard about this illness comes from a military website I'm on and there are quite a few expats that live in Hong Kong, the P.I. and Korea. A run up on supermarket goods in Hong Kong has resulted in a dire shortage of toilet paper. Yep, they're out of TP in old Hong Kong.
Originally posted by Tony Kania: I pay more than minimum wage, can offer you full time work, and do not require a drug test for employment. Where can I send you an application?
I pay bi-weekly. I keep track of time, location, and work performed through an app in which you are required to download. All work is above board, unless performed on my home. Then chicken wings and other festivities will be provided at no cost to the employee.
Buddy you could never afford to pull me away from my job. but what I listed are way is avail. for those starting out, no matter if just out of high school or college. here. Trades require 4-5 years in the trade to hire, so they can't get jobs there, construction is 95% latinos, I'll be most of that illegals. landscaping same thing. CNC machinist, you need 4-5 years in, before those hiring will even talk to you, plumper, electrical. 2 years or more, to be the goffer. Now if those on s.s. retirement were forced to pick either keep working or the s.s. check/bennies. There be tons of jobs for all these under employed folks. But as long as the boomers can double dip. and collect their s.s. and keep working those jobs will only open up when either they become to sick to still work or die. I'm sure my generation will cause the same problem for the coming generations. like the boomers that should be retired and not in the job pool are today. You can't move up the ladder when 2/3rd of those on ladder that should've retired are still filling those rungs. Same yoyo's that claim the youth don't want to work getting dirt, refuse to train on the job. and want/require years in the trade/field before they'll ever look at your resume.
The problem there is the boomers who can't afford to retire anymore. That pension plus oas that looked good in the 90s and 2000s won't even cover property taxes and house insurance in the 2020s.
They want to, just can't.
A great deal of that has been caused by insane alimony -support -tax laws. There are tens of millions who spent most of their working lives filling someone else's pocket, and now there is one hell of a social problem.
Honestly, given the reports of 50 million quarantined, emergency hospital construction, instant cremation, forcibly home confining the quarantine areas, eat. The higher numbers make more sense to me.
