Texas' secessionist inclinations have at least one modern outlet: the electric grid. There are three grids in the Lower 48 states: the Eastern Interconnection, the Western Interconnection — and Texas.
The Texas grid is called ERCOT, and it is run by an agency of the same name — the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. ERCOT does not actually cover all of Texas. El Paso is on another grid, as is the upper Panhandle and a chunk of East Texas. This presumably has to do with the history of various utilities' service territories and the remoteness of the non-ERCOT locations (for example the Panhandle is closer to Kansas than to Dallas, notes Kenneth Starcher of the Alternative Energy Institute in Canyon), but Texplainer is still figuring out the particulars on this.
The separation of the Texas grid from the rest of the country has its origins in the evolution of electric utilities early last century. In the decades after Thomas Edison turned on the country's first power plant in Manhattan in 1882, small generating plants sprouted across Texas, bringing electric light to cities. Later, particularly during the first world war, utilities began to link themselves together. These ties, and the accompanying transmission network, grew further during the second world war, when several Texas utilities joined together to form the Texas Interconnected System, which allowed them to link to the big dams along Texas rivers and also send extra electricity to support the ramped-up factories aiding the war effort.
The Texas Interconnected System — which for a long time was actually operated by two discrete entities, one for northern Texas and one for southern Texas — had another priority: staying out of the reach of federal regulators. In 1935, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the Federal Power Act, which charged the Federal Power Commission with overseeing interstate electricity sales. By not crossing state lines, Texas utilities avoided being subjected to federal rules. "Freedom from federal regulation was a cherished goal — more so because Texas had no regulation until the 1970s," writes Richard D. Cudahy in a 1995 article, "The Second Battle of the Alamo: The Midnight Connection." (Self-reliance was also made easier in Texas, especially in the early days, because the state has substantial coal, natural gas and oil resources of its own to fuel power plants.)
ERCOT was formed in 1970, in the wake of a major blackout in the Northeast in November 1965, and it was tasked with managing grid reliability in accordance with national standards. The agency assumed additional responsibilities following electric deregulation in Texas a decade ago. The ERCOT grid remains beyond the jurisdiction of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which succeeded the Federal Power Commission and regulates interstate electric transmission.
Historically, the Texas grid's independence has been violated a few times. Once was during World War II, when special provisions were made to link Texas to other grids, according to Cudahy. Another episode occurred in 1976 after a Texas utility, for reasons relating to its own regulatory needs, deliberately flipped a switch and sent power to Oklahoma for a few hours. This event, known as the "Midnight Connection," set off a major legal battle that could have brought Texas under the jurisdiction of federal regulators, but it was ultimately resolved in favor of continued Texan independence.
Even today, ERCOT is also not completely isolated from other grids — as was evident when the state imported some power from Mexico during the rolling blackouts of 2011. ERCOT has three ties to Mexico and — as an outcome of the "Midnight Connection" battle — it also has two ties to the eastern U.S. grid, though they do not trigger federal regulation for ERCOT. All can move power commercially as well as be used in emergencies, according to ERCOT spokeswoman Dottie Roark. A possible sixth interconnection project, in Rusk County, is being studied, and another ambitious proposal, called Tres Amigas, would link the three big U.S. grids together in New Mexico, though Texas' top utility regulator has shown little enthusiasm for participating.
Bottom line: Texas has its own grid to avoid dealing with the feds.
The Texas Tribune is a nonpartisan, nonprofit media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them – about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.
I'm not so sure about that last sentence but, I also didn't realize Texas has it's own (separate) power grid. Interesting in both a good and not so good way.
Rams
[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 02-16-2021).]
So, just how are our friends in Texas fairing? Haven't heard from a couple so, I'm curious as to their power situation? Baby, it's cold outside just doesn't say enough. Light snow flurries here in S. Mississippi this morning. This is not why I moved south.
My house is directly connected to the NERC / Critical Infrastructure power grid. My neighborhood of ~38 homes was a super luxury neighborhood from way back in the early 80s. Of course, when I got the home, it was a total **** hole. It was all original to 1983, and it showed. Everyone I knew was telling me that I should go buy new construction, or in the trendy Stone Oak neighborhood where everyone else was. I couldn't figure out why... my neighborhood also has A+ / 10 rated schools across the board.
I've learned three times that my decision was awesome: 1 - My home has nearly doubled in price in 3 years (after renovating it) 2 - I discovered after the massive flooding in 2017 that I'm outside the 100 year flood zone. 3 - I discovered in 2021 that I'm connected directly to the critical infrastructure grid.
I'm definitely not laughing, but my power has not gone out even once. Yet, just down the street from me, the power company has been having consistent rolling blackouts and shutting down power. People are freaking out because the temperatures in the homes (inside) have been like 10-20 degrees. The power company turns the power on for like 1-2 minutes, and then shuts it off again for 4 hours. And of course, those homes all have burst pipes now.
I'm really glad I listened to myself... but I also feel really bad for everyone else.
I've had my Emergency Heat on (heat pump isn't doing **** ) pretty much all day, but I've kept everything else off. I've had the heat stay at about 60 degrees. But I was also more prepared. I already had the faucet covers, and I also added fill around where my water main goes to make sure it was well protected. A lot of the homes, the ground is sunk around the water shut off outside. Last summer I filled it in and made sure the line was in excellent shape. I've offered to let my friends stay with me in our house (we have a 4-bedroom and only use two of them), but the roads are frozen, so they can't get out here.
All in all, it's only a big deal for Texas because they're not prepared for it. This would otherwise be a typical winter in Massachusetts.
All in all, it's only a big deal for Texas because they're not prepared for it. This would otherwise be a typical winter in Massachusetts.
Agreed but, such conditions can take a lot of human lives and cause a lot of damage costing huge dollars that didn't need to happen. You can't be prepared for everything but, common sense can and does prevent a lot of tragedies. That goes on both a personal and state wise level.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) called on the state legislature to investigate the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) after winter weather has left millions of Texans without power.
The Texas governor released a statement requesting that reform to the grid operator be prioritized as an emergency item during the legislative session to "ensure Texans never again experience power outages on the scale they have seen over the past several days."
"The Electric Reliability Council of Texas has been anything but reliable over the past 48 hours," Abbott said in his statement. "Far too many Texans are without power and heat for their homes as our state faces freezing temperatures and severe winter weather. This is unacceptable.
"Reviewing the preparations and decisions by ERCOT is an emergency item so we can get a full picture of what caused this problem and find long-term solutions," he added.
ERCOT is facing backlash for its management of the state's power grid that as of Tuesday, has left more than 4.1 million people in the Lone Star State without power after it was battered with record snow and subzero temperatures.
The grid operator ordered utilities to start rotating power outages on Monday morning in order to manage the high demand for electricity. Monday night ERCOT instructed utilities such as Oncor to shut off more power instead of the expected restorations.
Oncor in a Tuesday press release said that it couldn't rotate through many of the outages Monday night because of "poor grid conditions," which it said led to "extended periods without power for many of our customers."
"As soon as enough generation is available, we will return to a regular cadence of rotating outages with the goal of providing any temporary relief that we can for those who have been without power the longest," Oncor's release said.
"At this time, ERCOT is unable to predict when grid conditions will stabilize, and urge all customers to be prepared for extended outages to continue," the release continued.
In a tweet Tuesday morning, ERCOT forecasted that it could get power back for "some customers" in the afternoon due to increased wind and solar power sources and thermal generation. But the amount of restored power depends on "how much generation is actually able to come online."
ERCOT makes recommendations to utility companies based on how much power is available to use safely, and those power companies make the ultimate decision on how to handle the energy, ERCOT CEO and President Bill Magnus told NBC affiliate KXAN.
The winter storm has become deadly in Texas, with at least two dying of carbon monoxide poisoning in Houston and another two men found dead along Houston-area roads.
Being independent has it's value but, being part of the whole might be an advantage. I'm far enough away from the issues, I don't know all the whys and why nots but, it does appear there are a lot of cold Texans right now. Thankfully, I (and most of us) aren't having to share body heat. Some things you just have to experience to understand. Other times, you can learn from your neighbors experience.
[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 02-16-2021).]
So, just how are our friends in Texas fairing? Haven't heard from a couple so, I'm curious as to their power situation? Baby, it's cold outside just doesn't say enough. Light snow flurries here in S. Mississippi this morning. This is not why I moved south.
Rams
Lost power for most of yesterday, had some frozen lines as a result (they froze even with running water). After the power returned, I was able to unfreeze most of the lines, but the actual slab of my foundation is so cold that our first floor toilets are frozen. I haven't been able to get those unfrozen despite my best efforts.
We're faring okay given the circumstances. Many neighbors are not as lucky, frozen lines turning into busted pipes, etc.
I did find out that although my fireplace is gas, it requires electricity to feed the flame. Not just spark it, but keep it going. How dumb is that? I was able to wire batteries to it to get it running.
Lost power for most of yesterday, had some frozen lines as a result (they froze even with running water). After the power returned, I was able to unfreeze most of the lines, but the actual slab of my foundation is so cold that our first floor toilets are frozen. I haven't been able to get those unfrozen despite my best efforts.
We're faring okay given the circumstances. Many neighbors are not as lucky, frozen lines turning into busted pipes, etc.
I did find out that although my fireplace is gas, it requires electricity to feed the flame. Not just spark it, but keep it going. How dumb is that? I was able to wire batteries to it to get it running.
Well, glad you're surviving. Anyone heard from Maryjane?
quote
Originally posted by sourmash:
Texas learned why to connect to outside grids 5-7 years ago with a big ice storm.
Based on the reports I'm reading, that would not apparently be the case.
Rams
[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 02-16-2021).]
Apparently not. Based on everything I've read. Why else would there be rolling power outs. I'm not there, just reading the news and it ain't all that good. It appears too much reliance on that "Free" energy. Solar panels farms covered with snow and wind generators froze up.
Rams
[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 02-16-2021).]
They didn't follow through after seeing the problem in the last major winter event.
So, apparently, "they" didn't learn from the experience..................... What's that old saying about failing to learn from history guarantees repeating it or something like that.
Rams
[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 02-16-2021).]
Dallas County Chief Executive, Judge Clay Jenkins.
The first 3 minutes of this 6-minute video segment. I don't want to walk on the man's words, but he is not singling out Wind and Solar for what's happened in Texas. He talks about the failure to winterize the energy infrastructure; especially natural gas pipelines which feed gas-powered electrical generating plants.
I don't know a thing about him, aside from what he says here.
[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 02-16-2021).]
I'm doing quite well I suppose, compared to many. Rather than type it out, I'll copy it directly into this thread as it was sent to me. ERCOT is only part of the equation. MISO has a hand in all this and has had since about 2012. These are the messages most of us got over the past week. Last Friday Feb 12:
quote
: Entergy Texas: In preparation for potential winter weather, Entergy restoration workers are ready to safely address outages should they occur. We urge you to prepare now, too. For winter storm preparation and updates, visit https://entergy.com/winterweather . Visit https://entergy.com/myadvisor for tips on how to keep your bill low during extreme cold. Thank you for being a valued customer.
Sunday Feb 14 7:18pm, just hours before the freezing rain really started down hard
quote
FWD: Entergy: Extreme cold is expected over the next few days resulting in high electricity demand. We have taken steps to prepare and protect our assets from the extreme cold as part of our winter weather preparations, as well as placing additional power generation into service. Please do your part to help by taking a few easy steps to conserve energy.
We were forecast to get 3-5-8 inches of snow and ice. Turned out closer to 2-3 inches for my immediate area, with most of it being ice Sunday night/early Monday morning Power went out Monday morning around 5:30am and immediately received a text from our electric provider that rolling blackouts would go into effect to "protect the grid".
quote
Entergy: We were notified by our grid operator, MISO, to begin periodic power outages to maintain the safety and stability of the power grid. We will update you as soon as we have more information on the outage duration. We apologize for the inconvenience. We are working to repair damages and restore our system to normal grid operations as soon as possible. For information, go to
Roads are mostly open and cell service is mostly restored now (which is where I get internet) and electric service is coming back on line out here in the rural areas, but much of the Houstonb Metroplex is still without electric power (over 1 million without power as of 9pm tonight) and temps will drop again tonight with more freezing rain expected in the early hours of Wed. I'm on my own generator power and I do have some frozen pipes but I don't think anything too serious. It will be back to normal for most in my county and region this weekend, and like we do after a hurricane, we will just pick up the pieces, repair as needed and go on with life.
Much of Texas power generation used to be powered by (in my adult lifetime) Coal, nat gas and liquid petroleum products but much of that has been shut down by the greenies and supposedly to be replaced by wind and solar. In spite of what Democratic politicians like Judge Jenkins may say, the lack of conventional electric energy production in Texas is a huge culprit in this debacle.
"Frozen Wind Farms Are Just a Small Piece of Texas’s Power Woes"
quote
“The performance of wind and solar is way down the list among the smaller factors in the disaster that we’re facing,” Daniel Cohan, associate professor of environmental engineering at Rice University, said in an interview. Blaming renewables for the blackouts “is really a red herring.”
MSNBC's Chris Hayes was "on it" for just over 7 minutes on Tuesday evening.
quote
"It is just a lie that wind turbines, 'green energy' are the root causes of the problems in Texas right now,” says Chris Hayes, discussing the right wing attempt to turn Texas power outages into a culture war. Aired on 02/16/2021.
If someone wanted to have any of this, I suggest using this link which queues it partway through, starting from the 3:55 mark. https://youtu.be/-96D-H3M0a8?t=235
At the 4:30 mark, he presents some of that same brief report from Bloomberg Green.
I generally prefer the drier, laser-focused acerbity of Lawrence O'Donnell or the top drawer lawyerly precision of Ari Melber, but the ever passionate Chris Hayes is on his game here when he compares Texas to another state and another country that are both sizably invested in wind power and are no strangers to fierce winter weather: namely Iowa and Denmark.
He won't ever learn anything. All his 'sources' are NPC echo chamber hacks & shills regurgitating prepackaged establishment pablum.
You gain perspective from counterpoints and dissenting opinions, not the establishment agenda he copies and pastes. We only get pablum from corporate outlets. He cleans their stall and shovels it here.
The "culture wars" part of that video segment--that's the chaff, not the kernel. That's why I suggested that if anyone actually was going to play the video, that they pick it up at the 3:55 mark. To skip past the "culture wars" part of it.
The brief report in Bloomberg Green is more focused than the video, and likely anyone would be able to see it as a "freebie" even if they don't have an online subscription to Bloomberg Green. That very small fractional percentage (about 99.999 percent) of Pennock's forum members and lurkers who have not paid for an online subscription to Bloomberg Green.
[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 02-17-2021).]
My explanation of my own area may seem a bit odd but the short story is that not all of Texas and not all electric energy producers signed on to ERCOT. Mine did not, but did sign on to Mid Continent Independent System Operator's grid, (MISO) which takes in a very large region from Texas up into parts of Canada so MISO operators have a larger source of power to draw from.
The Houston metro area's provider is mostly CenterPoint Energy which is on ERCOT. Centerpoint is a company that used to be called Houston Light and Power.
Entergy is made up of several older companies too, among them being Gulf States Utilities Texas.
Of the three regions in the U.S. power grid, Texas has the least amount of generating capacity, totaling 123 GW as of October 2017. Since 2008, most retirements in Texas were generators that used natural gas steam and petroleum technologies. During that period, a total of 35% of Texas natural gas-fired steam turbine capacity and 66% of petroleum capacity retired. Coal retirements totaling 532 megawatts (MW) accounted for 2% of total installed coal capacity in Texas. However, Texas is expected to have 5,583 MW of coal retirements in 2018, based on planned retirement dates reported to EIA.
The leftists will claim it was econmics, not mandates that caused the shutdowns but that simply isn't always true. A case of saying something often enough and loud enough hoping some will see it as true.
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 02-17-2021).]
So, may I assume the seven Ps are applicable in this situation? Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance I sincerely do hope things warm up soon for my Texas friends.
Dan Woodfin, a senior director for ERCOT, had this to say:
quote
Don’t point too many fingers at Texas wind turbines, because they’re not the main reason broad swaths of the state have been plunged into darkness.
While ice has forced some turbines to shut down just as a brutal cold wave drives record electricity demand, that’s been the least significant factor in the blackouts, according to Dan Woodfin, a senior director for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which operates the state’s power grid.
The main factors: Frozen instruments at natural gas, coal and even nuclear facilities, as well as limited supplies of natural gas, he said. “Natural gas pressure” in particular is one reason power is coming back slower than expected Tuesday, added Woodfin.
"Frozen Wind Farms Are Just a Small Piece of Texas’s Power Woes" Will Wade, Naureen S Malik and Brian Eckhouse for Bloomberg Green; updated February 16, 2021. https://www.bloomberg.com/n...ower-woes?srnd=green
I thought maybe you and Dan (Woodfin) of ERCOT went way back.
Arguments aside, I am glad that you surfaced here and that you are getting by.
Woodfin is and always was a big proponent of wind and solar power so he is going to characterize & minimize those alternative source failures as being 'negligible'. He's covering his own ass.
"Frozen Wind Farms Are Just a Small Piece of Texas’s Power Woes"
I like the wind farms... huge supporter of them. But lying and misrepresenting the failure here helps no one. I'm not saying you're lying, but I think a lot of greenies are covering their asses and you're just repeating what they're telling you.
Wind farms make up +18% of Texas's total power production. Nearly all of the turbines have completely frozen over, making them completely unusable. They don't all run at the same time either, which means they typically are there to help load balance... turn more on, and you can produce up to 23% of the total power on the grid from wind turbines. Unfortunately, they're all pretty much useless right now.
As a result, the grid automatically has ~18% less power going to it.
While that's going on, you have ever home out there running their heaters on (heat pumps and/or emergency heat) 24/7 to maintain some kind of livable temperature in the home. Which means there is a significantly larger draw on the grid than there otherwise would be (I haven't seen any consistent numbers, but it's showing at least a 30% increase in power consumption across the board). With 18% less power, and a 30% increased demand... you have problems.
Again, I like wind power. It was designed to provide more power for hotter days, and even be able to load balance and provide significantly more power when the demand is there. It was not designed for freezing weather, which is extremely rare here... just is what it is... a freak snowstorm in South Texas.
We shouldn't allow our desire to "protect" ideologies to get in the way of things we actually 100% know to be facts.
Wind power will be here to stay, and it's been spectacular for Texas, the environment, and new skilled jobs. But let's not say it doesn't come with its own challenges once in a blue moon.
Just saw on the local news that Mississippi consumers are being asked to restrict or reduce there electrical usage due to "other" state's needs.
Ya know, when I moved south to Southern Mississippi, we immediately started a renovation and addition to our new (to us) home. It was all electric but, I changed out our water heater, cook top range and changed the fireplace to a LPG power gas ventless version. I also had the house wired for my PTO generator as a back up and had the entire structure spray foam insulated (minus the garage). All of my neighbors thought I was nuts. Some actually laughed out loud.
They don't think so now. My home is now larger than all of the surrounding homes and when we compare utilities bills, mine has always been smaller by a significant margin. Adding the gas and the foam insulation is what made the difference. Guess who is quietly smiling to himself now.
Rams
[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 02-17-2021).]
Just saw on the local news that Mississippi consumers are being asked to restrict or reduce there electrical usage due to "other" state's needs.
Ya know, when I moved south to Southern Mississippi, we immediately started a renovation and addition to our new (to us) home. It was all electric but, I changed out our water heater, cook top range and changed the fireplace to a LPG power gas ventless version. I also had the house wired for my PTO generator as a back up and had the entire structure spray foam insulated (minus the garage). All of my neighbors thought I was nuts. Some actually laughed out loud.
They don't think so now. My home is now larger than all of the surrounding homes and when we compare utilities bills, mine has always been smaller by a significant margin. Adding the gas and the foam insulation is what made the difference. Guess who is quietly smiling to himself now.
Rams
THAT is beautiful. I love it! I think a back up generator is a worthwhile investment too. The power goes out where I live 3-4 times a year. Sometimes for 2-3 days. Not a lot, but when you consider spoiled food and such, I think it pays. I really hope it warms up for you all. It's one thing when it's the norm where you live. It's totally another when it's not. And often life threatening.
This is essentially the text from the link. I attempted to edit out the fluff.
Feb 14, 2021,06:29pm Valentine’s Day Giving The Texas Electric Grid The Cold Shoulder
The energy world is currently transfixed by what is going on in Texas. Usually The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT, the electric grid that serves 90% of Texas electricity demand) gets attention in the dog days of summer when temperatures soar above 100 degrees F, air conditioners work round-the-clock to keep us cool, and the grid strains to keep up. But this Valentine’s Day cold snap makes our sweltering summer peaks look like child’s play. Wholesale electricity market prices are at all-time highs and have been in the $1000s of dollars per MWh all weekend. On average, ERCOT prices are much lower, generally in the low $30s.
Volatility and high prices are nothing new for the electricity wholesale market in Texas. (Note that the vast majority of residential customers are not paying these high prices to keep their homes warm as their electricity providers offer higher retail rates in exchange for buffering them from these price spikes, but more on that later.) In fact, very high prices for a small number of hours of the year is a feature of the Texas electricity market, not a bug, as the price spikes are useful incentive for prodding developers to build more generating capacity. However, we generally expect price spikes to happen on hot summer afternoons, driven by air-conditioning. And we expect those price spikes to be brief, lasting minutes or hours, and in isolated locations. This swath of high prices that span the state and have already lasted more than a day and are likely to last several more days is wholly new territory.
What is going on? Demand is crazy high.
On some level, it is a classic case of supply and demand. However, there are two markets involved and both are competing for the same thing. Texas is, as a whole, a summer-peaking state. Our energy use and electricity price spikes are driven by hot summer afternoon air-conditioning use. But, even on a bad day, the temperature difference between the outside air (105F) and a “comfortable” inside temperature (75F) is at most 30F (105F-75F). Temperatures are forecasted to get down to 10F in Austin, so the indoor/outdoor difference between a “comfortable” indoor temperature of 70F is 60F (70F-10F), double what we are trying to control in the summer. Keep in mind our homes are designed with insulation for a 30F differential and a preference for shedding heat, not a 60F differential with a desire to retain heat.
That means our homes are demanding much more energy for heating energy right now than the cooling energy we demand for the same number of hours in the summer. Also, about 60% of homes in Texas are heated by electricity, but not the efficient heat pumps that can operate at these temperatures. Many are the inefficient resistance heating or the older kind of heat pumps that use resistance heating as a back-up when the heat pumps lag behind. To put it in context, a standard electric furnace or heat pump in this auxiliary mode pulls double the power that an air-conditioner pulls in the summer. All told this means a huge spike in demand for electricity.
But, what about all those 40% of homes that use natural gas for heating? They aren’t immune from the price madness, either.
When Texas electricity prices get this high, it is almost always (forever as I can remember) driven by scarcity pricing. Scarcity pricing happens when reserves (power plants on standby ready to jump in if market conditions get tight) get low. As of this writing, scarcity pricing has not happened with this weather pattern yet. The scarcity pricing mechanisms are traditionally what drive ERCOT prices to their famous $9000/MWh peaks.
Homes and businesses in Texas use electricity and natural gas for heat and at the same time over half of power plants in Texas use natural gas to make electricity. There is competition for natural gas right now between heaters in buildings and power plants that make electricity for heaters. That competition has driven natural gas demand through the roof, driving gas prices into the triple digits from $2.77 in a normal week to over $140 today (Waha Hub). These high gas prices cause electricity prices to go up which invites more gas plants to come online which will drive up the price of gas, and so on and so forth.
Natural gas suppliers are able to claim force majeure and not supply contracted gas if they physically cannot do so. However, if natural gas power plants committed to provide electricity to the market and cannot do so because their gas provider cut off the supply, they might have to procure electricity on the open market (during a time of high price spikes) or face steep penalties to satisfy their contracts and ensure grid reliability, further increasing prices.
All of these factors coming together implies we might yet see scarcity pricing set in as temperatures drop further. In other words, the prices can go even higher.
We are a state defined by our hot summers, but we need to think more about winter
Texas gets this cold, but it is usually just in the north for a few of hours at a time, not a few days across the entire state simultaneously. Homes here can ride through short bouts of cold weather just with thermal lag (that is, it takes a few days for a well-insulated home to lose its heat), but our design specs for heating only account for temperatures down to about 25F in Austin, TX. Our demand response programs to remotely cycle air conditioners on and off are primarily geared towards summer operation.
Demand response behaviors are also likely more designed for typical summer operations than winter conditions. Industrial facilities and large commercial buildings will delay some operations until evening to avoid exacerbating peak demand during the afternoon. But in the winter, shifting more demand to night-time when others are trying to heat their homes makes things worse. There is less certainty and intuitive knowledge about how large consumers will respond to winter peak conditions.
The next few days are going to be tough for the ERCOT market. High and volatile prices are straining electricity market participants. Some retail electricity providers are even paying their customers to leave so they can reduce exposure of their balance sheets to an unforgiving market:
And some market contracts could be very out of the money:
The last time we had a deep freeze in Texas was in 2011 and it triggered the failure of coal and natural gas power plants. This cold snap is deeper and will last longer so risks will be high. At the same time, wind power capacity has more than tripled in the last decade, so we have more diverse resources to bear on the problem. Wind output so far has been good and, in general, exceeded forecasts. Going forward, we will need all hands on deck, and how all resources perform could spell the difference between a near-miss and widespread disaster.
When the dust settles, we will know more, but even though it is cold outside, the market is red-hot right now…
Caitlin Smith, Vice President, AB Power Advisors, contributed ERCOT market knowledge and insight and collaborated on content. ============================================
My take? Everyone is pointing fingers, and are going to continue to do so. I think it is a case of collossally poor planning, along with a half-baked "green initiative". Not being able to purchase electricity from "off system" is just stupid, especially when there is enough generating capacity in adjacent states to provide at least some measure of relief. The "greens" are being soundly disparaged, but I'm not convinced that they are entirely at fault. Certainly to a measure, but...
It’s looking like the worst is almost over. We made it through today and pending tonight should make it out relatively unscathed.
Re: energy sources
I haven’t done any research on this, but I have to think it’s not about going green or not, but more about having a diversity of scalable sources. Rely on one and a bottleneck hurts you. Have oil, gas, wind, solar, nuclear, coal, etc. and if any one goes down you can more easily scale up.
I’m sure TX (and others) have things mostly planned. It’s hard to plan redundancy and excess for a once a century storm.
People with nat gas or even propane central heat still won't have any (heat). Blower fans need electricity to run unless ya really have a squirrel running around in there. Heat pump systems don't work well in very cold temps either.
Most recent message from my elec provider (35 minutes ago):
Entergy: We request limited electricity usage due to present extreme cold weather immediately, including turning off electric water heaters and lowering heating thermostats settings. Insufficient reductions may require temporary interruptions of electric service. We apologize for this inconvenience and are working to restore our system to normal grid operations as soon as possible.
I hope to have my plumbing back up to serviceability tomorrow. The whole house filter I have had since building the place in 2009 froze and broke. We're now flushing the toilet with water I bring up from the pond.
It’s looking like the worst is almost over. We made it through today and pending tonight should make it out relatively unscathed.
Re: energy sources
I haven’t done any research on this, but I have to think it’s not about going green or not, but more about having a diversity of scalable sources. Rely on one and a bottleneck hurts you. Have oil, gas, wind, solar, nuclear, coal, etc. and if any one goes down you can more easily scale up.
I’m sure TX (and others) have things mostly planned. It’s hard to plan redundancy and excess for a once a century storm.
A diversity of sources seems to be pretty "spot on" to me - at least from my own perspective. I don't speak from a position of authority, but I have been an observer of the power industry for nearly 30 years, as a support person on the inside. Ya' can't put all your eggs in one basket.
Texas? it might have a plan, but it will either be a long time coming, or absurdly expensive to implement. Either/or.
Regardless, I wish everyone the best. I couldn't imagine...
[This message has been edited by Raydar (edited 02-17-2021).]
I’m sure TX (and others) have things mostly planned. It’s hard to plan redundancy and excess for a once a century storm.
I believe TX had a similar issue within the last 10 years, maybe not as bad as this but, it doesn't take a genius to see standing alone will eventually come to haunt you.
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Originally posted by Raydar:
My take? Everyone is pointing fingers, and are going to continue to do so. I think it is a case of collossally poor planning, along with a half-baked "green initiative". Not being able to purchase electricity from "off system" is just stupid, especially when there is enough generating capacity in adjacent states to provide at least some measure of relief. The "greens" are being soundly disparaged, but I'm not convinced that they are entirely at fault. Certainly to a measure, but...
Steve, As I said previously in this thread, the SEVEN Ps appear to be very applicable. This will take lives and will cost a bundlel
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Originally posted by maryjane:
People with nat gas or even propane central heat still won't have any (heat). Blower fans need electricity to run unless ya really have a squirrel running around in there. Heat pump systems don't work well in very cold temps either.
This is precisely why I had my home wired for a back up generator. I can't afford to keep squirrel feed on hand.
Rams
[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 02-17-2021).]
Steve, As I said previously in this thread, the SEVEN Ps appear to be very applicable. This will take lives and will cost a bundlel
Some things are just stupid beyond comprehension. I'm all for independence from federal oversight, but this whole thing is just... incomprehensible. Maybe even unforeseeable. But LOTS of things are unforeseeable, right up until they happen. Ooops.
Edit - I'm guessing you are on Mississippi Power. How are things going in your neck of the woods? We have heard precious little, over official channels. Thanks.
[This message has been edited by Raydar (edited 02-17-2021).]
Originally posted by Raydar: I'm guessing you are on Mississippi Power. How are things going in your neck of the woods? We have heard precious little, over official channels. Thanks.
Actually, Pearl River Power and we're doing fine (even though the PTO Generator is on the tractor and ready to do it's thing). As I previously stated, the local news has asked that all Mississippians reduce their consumption so power can be shared with "other" states. No idea who those other states are but, I'm thinking it probably isn't TX. But, that's just a guess on my part.
Rams
[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 02-17-2021).]
Considering the size of Texas, it's population, # of business and residential customer power requirements, we aren't doing as bad as Ron would have people think. Our residential customer base power needs exceeds the totals of all other states experiencing outages this morning, as does the miles of power lines, and evidently, the availability of those other states to buy power from other parts of their grid consortium isn't exactly bulletproof either. And of course, Mississippi is still our (and everyone else's) Mississippi.
Agreed but, such conditions can take a lot of human lives and cause a lot of damage costing huge dollars that didn't need to happen. You can't be prepared for everything but, common sense can and does prevent a lot of tragedies. That goes on both a personal and state wise level.
Rams
I wasn't framing it in that perspective. The way I see it, there are two sides to this... (and then everyone else who doesn't really care one way or another).
- One side is pushing this failure as an example of green energy not working, and while they are pointing out valid arguments, they're ignoring the positives that otherwise come from wind farms. - The other side is desperately trying to change the narrative to cover up for the failure of the wind farms, and in most cases actually lying and misrepresenting the failure.
My comment was that this is a freak situation, and we shouldn't really be blaming wind farms for the failure, but that we cannot simply lie and ignore that these wind farms didn't have a weakness in this completely unexpected and once in a quarter century weather occurrence.
sources 
and I'm sure they consulted any number of independent sources before choosing which ones to go with. 
